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The fate of "small" open source

https://nolanlawson.com/2025/11/16/the-fate-of-small-open-source/
72•todsacerdoti•1h ago

Comments

RyanHamilton•1h ago
Less incentive to write small libraries. Less incentive to write small tutorials on your own website. Unless you are a hacker or a spammer where your incentives have probably increased. We are entering the era of cheap spam of everything with little incentive for quality. All this for the best case outcome of most people being made unemployed and ruling the dice on society reorganising to that reality.
zwnow•1h ago
But some webdev said they are 10x faster now so it cant be bad for humanity /s
phoronixrly•1h ago
> We are entering the era of cheap spam of everything with little incentive for quality

Correction -- sadly, we're already well within this era

NitpickLawyer•1h ago
> or a spammer where your incentives have probably increased.

Slight pushback on this. The web has been spammed with subpar tutorials for ages now. The kind of medium "articles" that are nothing more than "getting started" steps + slop that got popular circa 2017-2019 is imo worse than the listy-boldy-emojy-filled articles that the LLMs come up with. So nothing gained, nothing lost imo. You still have to learn how to skim and get signals quickly.

I'd actually argue that now it's easier to winnow the slop. I can point my cc running in a devcontainer to a "tutorial" or lib / git repo and say something like "implement this as an example covering x and y, success condition is this and that, I want it to work like this, etc.", and come back and see if it works. It's like a litmus test of a tutorial/approach/repo. Can my cc understand it? Then it'll be worth my time looking into it. If it can't, well, find a different one.

I think we're seeing the "low hanging fruit" of slop right now, and there's an overcorrection of attitude against "AI". But I also see that I get more and more workflows working for me, more or less tailored, more or less adapted for me and my uses. That's cool. And it's powered by the same underlying tech.

NegativeK•1h ago
The problem isn't that AI slop is doing something new. Phishing, blogspam, time wasting PRs, website scraping, etc have all existed before.

The problem is that AI makes all of that far, far easier.

Even using tooling to filter articles doesn't scale as slop grows to be a larger and larger percentage of content, and it means I'm going to have to consider prompt injections and running arbitrary code. All of this is a race to the bottom of suck.

AstroBen•42m ago
The difference is that the cost of slop has decreased by orders of magnitude. What happens when only 1 in 10,000 of those tutorials you can find is any good, from someone actually qualified to write it?
skydhash•20m ago
The thing is, what is the actual point of this approach? Is it for leaning? I strongly believe there’s no learning without inmersion and practice. Is it for automation? The whole idea of automation is to not think about the thing again unless there’s a catastrophic error, it’s not about babysitting a machine. Is it about judgment? Judgment is something you hone by experiencing stuff then deciding whether it’s bad or not. It’s not something you delegate lightly.
cynicalsecurity•1h ago
He almost got it right. It's not just the fate of small open source. It's the fate of all programmers now. Why hire a programmer when an LLM costs less, works faster and makes less mistakes (OP compliments better error handling, read the article).

Unless you are a product owner, you have paying clients that love you and your product and won't simply ditch it in favour of a new clone, you are really screwed.

RhythmFox•1h ago
He also points out a pointless type check in a type checked language...

Your name is very accurate I must say.

jazzypants•1h ago
That type check is honestly not pointless at all. You can never be certain of your inputs in a web app. The likelihood of that parameter being something other than an arraybuffer is non-zero, and you generally want to have code coverage for that kind of undefined behavior. TypeScript doesn't complain without a reason.
vanschelven•1h ago
"when an LLM costs less, works faster and makes less mistakes"... indeed, but it doesn't follow at all that it's the fate of all programmers _now_... at least in my experience none of these things are true ATM.
PunchyHamster•29m ago
Well, at the very least it costs less than asking intern to look for a lib doing something particular and give some examples... still about as accurate as the intern tho.
skydhash•13m ago
How many time has it happened for a company to actually ask an intern for a library?
dakiol•58m ago
So far I've never seen yet a non-programmer release production-grade code using only LLMs. There's just so much to care about (from security, deployments, secret management, event-driven architectures, and a large etc.) that "just" providing a prompt to create an "app" doesn't cut it. You need infra and non-engineers just don't know shit about infra (even if it's 99% managed), you need to deploy your llm-generated code in that infra; that should happen in a ci/cd probably. And what about migrations? Git? Who's setting up the api gateway? I don't mean to say that LLMs don't know how to do that, but you need to instruct them to do so, and even there, they will make silly mistakes and you need to re-instruct them or fix it.

Prompting is just 50% of the work (and the easy part actually). Ask the Head of Product or whoever is there to deploy something valuable to production and maintain it for 6 months while not losing money. It's just not going to happen, not even with truly AGI.

59nadir•44m ago
An LLM might be able to replace the majority of the code Sindre Sorhus has put out there, but it's probably a stretch to think that it could replace someone like John Carmack.

Trivial NPM libraries were never needed, but LLMs really are the nail in the coffin for them even when it comes to the most incompetent programmers because now they can literally just ask an LLM to spit out the exact same thing.

CuriouslyC•1h ago
Small open source is still valuable, but the bar is higher. If your project is something that's trivial and nobody just thought to do it before you and bothered to do it after, that's probably not going to survive, but if your project is a small focused tool that handles something difficult really well, it's 100% got a future.
mccoyb•58m ago
I don’t think open source is going anywhere. It’s posed to get significantly stronger — as the devs which care about it learn how to leverage AI tools to make things that corporate greasemonkeys never had the inspiration to. Low quality code spammers are just marketing themselves for jobs where they can be themselves: soulless and devoid of creative impulse.

That’s the thing: open source is the only place where the true value (or lack of value) of these tools can be established — the only place where one can test mettle against metal in a completely unconstrained way.

Did you ever want to build a compiler (or an equally complex artifact) but got stuck on various details? Try now. It’s going to stand up something half-baked, and as you refine it, you will learn those details — but you’ll also learn that you can productively use AI to reach past the limits of your knowledge, to make what’s beyond a little more palatable.

All the things people say about AI is true to some degree: my take is that some people are rolling the slots to win a CRUD app, and others are trying to use it to do things that they could only imagine before —- and open source tends to be the home of the latter group.

nowittyusername•51m ago
True innovation will come from open source for sure. As the developers don't have the same economic incentives to be "safe", "ethical" "profitable" or whatever. large corporations know this and fear this development. That's why i expect a significant lobbying to take hold in USA that will try and make local AI systems illegal. And I think they will be very convincing to the government. Because the government also fears the "peasants" and giving them any true semblance of real AGI like systems. I bet very soon we will start seeing various classifications that will define what is legal and what is not for a citizen to possess or use.
exasperaited•40m ago
> It’s posed to get significantly stronger

It's really not. Every project of any significance is now fending off AI submissions from people who have not the slightest fucking clue about what is involved in working on long-running, difficult projects or how offensive it is to just slather some slop on a bug report and demand it is given scrutiny.

Even at the 10,000 feet view it has wasted people's time because they have to sit down and have a policy discussion about whether to accept AI submissions, which involves people reheating a lot of anecdotal claims about productivity.

Having learned a bit about how to write compilers I know enough to know that I can guarantee you that an AI cannot help you solve the difficult problems that compiler-building tools and existing libraries cannot solve.

It's the same as it is with any topic: the tools exist and they could be improved, but instead we have people shoehorning AI bollocks into everything.

micromacrofoot•29m ago
yeah we are getting lots of "I don't know how to do this and AI gave me this code that doesn't work, can you fix it" or "AI said it can do this" and the feature doesn't exist... some people will even argue and say "but AI said it doesn't take long, why won't you add it"
mccoyb•14m ago
Sounds like a lot of FUD to me — if major projects balk at the emergence of new classes of tools, perhaps the management strategy wasn’t resilient in the first place?

Further: sitting down to discuss how your project will adapt to change is never a waste of time, I’m surprised you stated it like that.

In such a setting, you’re working within a trusted party — and for a major project, that likely means extremely competent maintainers and contributors.

I don’t think these people will have any difficulty adapting to the usage of these tools …

doug_durham•4m ago
This isn't an AI issue. It is a care issue. People shouldn't submit PRs to project where they don't care enough to understand the project they are submitting to or the code they are submitting. This has always been a problem, there is nothing new. The thing that is new is more people can get to a point where they can submit regardless of their care or understanding. A lot of people are trying to gild their resume by saying they contributed to a project. Blaming AI is blaming the wrong problem. AI is a a tool like a spreadsheet. Project owners should instead be working ways to filter out careless code more efficiently.
zkmon•51m ago
Open source exists because coding was a significant effort and code was a thing of high value. Unsurprisingly companies hesitated to make the code public and free. All of this is changing now as coding has suddenly become trivial. So, yes, the mission of open source, in general, will be challenged.
levkk•44m ago
Several issues:

1. Reducing dependencies is a wrong success metric. You just end up doing more work yourself, except you can't be an expert in everything, so your code is often strictly worse.

2. Regenerating the same solutions with a probabilistic machine will produce bugs a certain percentage of the time. Dependencies are always the same code (when versioned).

3. Cognitive overhead for human review is higher with LLM-generated libs, for no additional benefit.

jcelerier•41m ago
> Reducing dependencies is a wrong success metric. You just end up doing more work yourself

Except it's just not true in many cases because of social systems we've built. If I want to ship software to Debian I have to make sure that every single of my 3rdparty dependencies is registered and packaged as a proper debian package - a lot of time it will take much less work to rewrite some code than to get 25 100-lines-of-code micro-libraries accepted into debian.

cactusfrog•40m ago
This author assumes that open sourcing a package only delivers value if is added as a dependency. Publicly sharing code with a permissive license is still useful and a radical idea.
lanstin•32m ago
Yeah if I find some (small) unmaintained code I need, I will just copy it (then add in my metrics and logging standards :)

It shouldn't be a radical idea, it is how science overall works.

Also, as per the educational side, I find in modern software ecosystem, I don't want to learn everything. Excellent new things or dominantly popular new things, sure, but there are a lot of branching paths of what to learn next, and having Claude code whip up a good enough solution is fine and lets me focus on less, more deeply.

(Note: I tried leaving this comment on the blog but my phone keyboard never opened despite a lot of clicking, and on mastodon but hit the length limit).

positron26•21m ago
Yep. Even just sharing code with any license is valuable. Much I have learned from reading an implementation of code I have never run even once. Solutions to tough problems are an under-recognized form of generosity.

This is a point where the lack of alignment between the free beer crowd and those they depend on is all too clear. The free beer enthusiast cannot imagine benefiting from anything other than a finished work. They are concerned about the efficient use of scarce development bandwidth without consciousness of why it is scarce or that it is not theirs to direct. They view solutions without a hot package cache as a form of waste, oblivious to how such solutions expedite the development of all other tools they depend on, commercial or free.

Aperocky•36m ago
> the era of small, low-value libraries like blob-util is over.

Thankfully (not against blob-util specifically because I've never intentionally used it), I wouldn't completely blame llms either since languages like Go never had this dependency hell.

npm is a security nightmare not just because of npm the package manager, because the culture of the language rewards behavior such as "left-pad".

Instead of writing endless utilities for other project to re-use, write actual working things instead - that's where the value/fun is.

ncruces•23m ago
But as Go puts it:

“A little copying is better than a little dependency.”

https://go-proverbs.github.io/

hnlmorg•17m ago
More likely, what we will see is the decline of low effort projects. The JavaScript/ Typescript ecosystem has been plagued with such packages. But that’s more anomalous to the JS community than it is a systemic problem with open source in general.

So if fewer people are including silly dependencies like isEven or leftPad, then I see that as a positive outcome.

BrenBarn•13m ago
> Sure, you could use blob-util, but then you’d be taking on an extra dependency, with unknown performance, maintenance, and supply-chain risks.

Use of an AI to write your code is also a form of dependency. When the LLM spits out code and you just dump it in your project with limited vetting, that's not really that different from vendoring a dependency. It has a different set of risks, but it still has risks.

smcameron•5m ago
In the U.S., anything machine generated is uncopyrightable.

Why would you put uncopyrightable code into your codebase?

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