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What AI Is Really For

https://www.chrbutler.com/what-ai-is-really-for
41•delaugust•1h ago

Comments

carlosjobim•24m ago
Let's take the highest perspective possible:

What is the value of technology which allows people communicate clearly with other people of any language? That is what these large language models have achieved. We can now translate pretty much perfectly between all the languages in the world. The curse from the tower of Babel has been lifted.

There will be a time in the future, when people will not be able to comprehend that you couldn't exchange information regardless of personal language skills.

So what is the value of that? Economically, culturally, politically, spiritually?

bix6•20m ago
We could communicate with people before LLMs just fine though? We have hand gestures and some people learn multiple languages and google translate was pretty solid. I got by just fine in countries where I didn’t know the language because hand gestures work or someone speaks English.

What is the value of losing our uniqueness to a computer that lies and makes us all talk the same?

carlosjobim•2m ago
You can maybe order in a restaurant or ask the way with hand gestures. But surely you must be able to take a higher perspective than your own, and realize that there's enormous amounts of exchange between nations with differing language, and all of this relies on some form of translation. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world have to deal with language barriers.

Google Translate was far from solid, the quality of translations were so bad before LLMs that it simply wasn't an option for most languages. It would sometimes even translate numbers incorrectly.

4ndrewl•18m ago
Which languages couldn't we translate before? Not you, the individual. We, humanity?
carlosjobim•10m ago
Machine translation was horrible and completely unreliable before LLMs. And human translators are very expensive and slow in comparison.

LLM is for translation as computers were for calculating. Sure, you could do without them before. They used to have entire buildings with office workers whose job it was to compute.

Herring•16m ago
Language is a lot deeper than that. It's like if I say "we speak the same language", it means a lot more than just the ability to translate. It's talking about a shared past and worldview and hopefully future which I/we intend to invest in.
philipkglass•22m ago
I think that what is really behind the AI bubble is the same thing behind most money, power, and influence: land and resources. The AI future that is promised, whether to you and me or to the billionaires, requires the same thing: lots of energy, lots of land, and lots of water.

If you just wanted land, water, and electricity, you could buy them directly instead of buying $100 million of computer hardware bundled with $2 million worth of land and water rights. Why are high end GPUs selling in record numbers if the AI trend is just a cover story for the acquisition of land, electricity, and water?

kjkjadksj•19m ago
Because then you can buy calls on the GPU companies
bix6•18m ago
But with this play they can inflate their company holdings and cash out in new rounds. It’s the ultimate self enrichment scheme! Nobody wants that crappy piece of land but now it’s got GPUs and we can leverage that into a loan for more GPUs and cash out along the way.
block_dagger•22m ago
> To think that with enough compute we can code consciousness is like thinking that with enough rainbows one of them will have a pot of gold at its end.

What does consciousness have to do with AGI or the point(s) the article is trying to make? This is a distraction imo.

kmnc•12m ago
It’s a funny anology because what’s missing for the rainbows with pots of gold is magic and fairytales…so what’s missing for consciousness is also magic and fairytales? I’ve yet to see any compelling argument for believing enough computer wouldn’t allow us to code consciousness.
apsurd•3m ago
Yes that's just it though, it's a logic argument. "Tell me why we aren't just stochastic parrots!" is more logically sound than "God made us", but that doesn't defacto make it "The correct model of reality".

I am suspect that the world is modeled linearly. That physical reality is non-linear is also more logically sound, so why is there such a clear straight line from compute to consciousness?

njarboe•18m ago
Many people use AI as the source for knowledge. Even though it is often wrong or misleading, it's advice is better on average than their own judgement or the judgement of people they know. When an AI is "smarter" than 95%? of the population, even if it does not reach superintelligence, will be a very big deal.
apsurd•9m ago
This means to me AI is rocket fuel for our post-truth reality.

Post-truth is a big deal and it was already happening pre-AI. AGI, post-scarcity, post-humanity are nerd snipes.

Post-truth on the other hand is just a mundane and nasty sociologically problem that we ran head-first into and we don't know how to deal with. I don't have any answers. Seems like it'll get worse before it gets better.

BolexNOLA•9m ago
The amount of confidentially incorrect information it regurgitates, which only gets worse with poor prompting (given by the less-smart prompter by the way!) means that this 95% has a lot of caveats and frankly just doesn’t feel accurate, even as an off the cuff number.

The number that comes to mind for me when assessing LLM accuracy (which most people basically use in place of a standard search engine now) is ~70%.

To be clear I am not saying it is smarter than 70% of people, but that it’s accurate 70% of the time, so saying “it’s smarter than 95% of people” doesn’t really work for me. Does that make sense?

If I ask somebody something about a topic they know about, they’re generally going to respond with something more than 70% correct. LLM’s have way more breadth of knowledge than people but it’s far “sloppier” about it more or less.

exceptione•17m ago
I think this is the best part of the essay:

  > But then I wonder about the true purpose of AI. As in, is it really for what they say it’s for?

  > There is a vast chasm between what we, the users, and them, the investors, are “sold” in AI. We are told that AI will do our tasks faster and better than we can — that there is no future of work without AI. And that is a huge sell, one I’ve spent the majority of this post deconstructing from my, albeit limited, perspective. But they — the people who commit billions toward AI — are sold something entirely different. They are sold AGI, the idea of a transformative artificial intelligence, an idea so big that it can accommodate any hope or fear a billionaire might have. Their billions buy them ownership over what they are told will remake a future world nearly entirely monetized for them. And if not them, someone else. That’s where the fear comes in. It leads to Manhattan Project rationale, where any lingering doubt over the prudence of pursuing this technology is overpowered by the conviction of its inexorability. Someone will make it, so it should be them, because they can trust them.
qoez•16m ago
Best case is hardly a bubble. I definitely think this is a new paradigm that'll lead to something, even if the current iteration won't be the final version and we've probably overinvested a slight bit.
threetonesun•5m ago
Same as the dot-com bubble. Fundamentals were wildly off for some businesses, but you can also find almost every business that failed then running successfully today. Personally I don't think sticking AI in every software is where the real value is, it's improving understanding of huge sets of data already out there. Maybe OpenAI challenges Google for search, maybe they fail, I'm still pretty sure the infrastructure is going to get used because the amount of data we collect and try to extract value from isn't going anywhere.
aynyc•15m ago
A bit of sarcasm, but I think it's porn.
righthand•5m ago
It’s at least about stimulating you to give richer data. Which isn’t quite porn.
sockgrant•14m ago
“As a designer…”

IMHO the bleeding edge of what’s working well with LLMs is within software engineering because we’re building for ourselves, first.

Claude code is incredible. Where I work, there are an incredible number of custom agents that integrate with our internal tooling. Many make me very productive and are worthwhile.

I find it hard to buy in to opinions of non-SWE on the uselessness of AI solely because I think the innovation is lagging in other areas. I don’t doubt they don’t yet have compelling AI tooling.

ihaveajob•11m ago
I'm curious if you could share something about custom agents. I love Claude Code and I'm trying to get it into more places in my workflow, so ideas like that would probably be useful.
hagbarth•10m ago
If you read a little further in the article, the main point is _not_ that AI is useless. But rather than AGI god building, a regular technology. A valuable one, but not infinite growth.
Animats•3m ago
It's pretty clear that the financialization aspect of AI is a bubble. There's way too much market cap created by trading debt back and forth. How well AI will work remains an open question at this point.
Dilettante_•2m ago

  My experience with AI in the design context tends to reflect what I think is generally true about AI in the workplace: the smaller the use case, the larger the gain.
This might be the money quote, encapsulating the difference between people who say their work benefits from LLMs and those who don't. Expecting it to one-shot your entire module will leave you disappointed, using it for code completion, generating documentation, and small-scale agentic tasks frees you up from a lot of little trivial distractions.

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