1. Do you think it is peak market already?
2. When it pops, do you think the AI market will still be bigger than in November 2025? In other words, are we in 1995/1996 of the dotcom bubble or 2000?
3. After it pops, do you think the AI market will reach the peak again and if so, how soon? Or do you think AI is a fad and will fade and will never reach the peak set in November 2025?
4. If you believe that the bubble will burst but the market will reach over the November 2025 peak again, are you going to buy the AI bubble dip?
1. Maybe, but it's hard to predict when a bubble decides to pop. I would never have guessed Nvidia would reach 5 T with this state of AI either :).
2. No, at least for some time after said pop
3. How much it comes back depends on how fast AI continues to develop after said pop. A lot of what I think makes this a bubble is AI snuck up on near everyone with how fast it expanded in the ~GPT 3.5 era and there was a frenzy that if you don't get involved in AI now then you'll be left behind before you can. A few years into it, one can still easily have not ever used AI and get by fine. Far enough into the future that may not be so easy to say (imagine getting by without the internet in 2000 vs 2025) but the dip will be until it's clearer when that actually might be.
4. I plan on it :). If there really is an AI bubble pop then I feel it will likely drag tech stocks all around lower for a bit, so even if AI never came back I think it'd be a good time to buy. The bet here being there will always be another tech hype cycle the large tech companies get involved in. The devil is, of course, when to buy how much in the dip. I'll not focus on specific AI companies, just a basket of AI adjacent large tech.
raffael_de•2mo ago