Study from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis based on national survey data and other statistics indicating GenAI may already be impacting labor productivity at a national level.
Relevant quotes:
> When we feed these estimates into a standard aggregate production model, this suggests that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% since the introduction of ChatGPT. This is consistent with recent estimates of aggregate labor productivity in the U.S. nonfarm business sector. For example, productivity increased at an average rate of 1.43% per year from 2015-2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, from the fourth quarter of 2022 through the second quarter of 2025, aggregate labor productivity increased by 2.16% on an annualized basis. Relative to its prepandemic trend, this corresponds to excess cumulative productivity growth of 1.89 percentage points since ChatGPT was publicly released.
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> We stress that this correlation cannot be interpreted as causal, and that labor productivity is determined by many factors. However, the current results are suggestive that generative AI may already be noticeably affecting industry-level productivity.
keeda•2mo ago
Relevant quotes:
> When we feed these estimates into a standard aggregate production model, this suggests that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% since the introduction of ChatGPT. This is consistent with recent estimates of aggregate labor productivity in the U.S. nonfarm business sector. For example, productivity increased at an average rate of 1.43% per year from 2015-2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, from the fourth quarter of 2022 through the second quarter of 2025, aggregate labor productivity increased by 2.16% on an annualized basis. Relative to its prepandemic trend, this corresponds to excess cumulative productivity growth of 1.89 percentage points since ChatGPT was publicly released.
...
> We stress that this correlation cannot be interpreted as causal, and that labor productivity is determined by many factors. However, the current results are suggestive that generative AI may already be noticeably affecting industry-level productivity.