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The Laffer Curve in Action

https://rodgercuddington.substack.com/p/the-laffer-curve-in-action
6•freespirt•3h ago

Comments

devnull3•2h ago
I had written this on SM sometime back. I realized it is applicable to other nations as well and not just Brits (like French)

-------------

UK's situation is akin to someone who used to be rich and but that wealth has been steadily eroded. But that person still insists on having the same standard of living.

There is a generation of Brits who do not know what true sustained shortage is or what rationing is. They have never experienced blackouts or lawlessness. (What is being experienced right now is just a trailer)

So there are only two options really:

1. Insist on maintaining the standard of living

2. Willfully accept to lower the standard of living

Brits want (1) but the govt doesn't have the money and yet they don't want to pay for it.

This results into govt looking for every opportunity to tax. This results into passionate discussions on whether this is fair or not.

These debates even though understandable at times loses the sight of fact that this is a result of choice (1).

As for taxes, the govt will squeeze anything which resembles a pot of money which was untouched so far. Also the expenses (due to choosing (1)) are going to rise every year.

What will be left for the govt to tax next year or 5 years from now? The govt will run out of things to tax eventually. This is clearly not sustainable.

I think also the law of averages is catching up with Brits i.e. after so many generations (since the colonial era) there will be come a few generations which will be worse off.

__What is the way forward?__

This is not a solution to the problems but to accept the hard reality that there are going to be few generations of people who will have to make peace with a lower standard of living, work hard without getting much in return, so that their grand children will enjoy a much better life.

In other words, the current generation (and maybe next) has to swallow the hard pill.

These sacrifices on families come in multiple forms like:

1. Low wages, increased work hours

2. Prepare to go abroad for work to earn a little extra, just like skilled migrants from less developed countries do.

3. Make the best with what you have

4. Living within means.

5. Become less materialistic

6. Prepared to do work which Brits did not like and passed on to the immigrants

7. Pay for healthcare

8. Substantial reduction in benefit amounts.

9. Everyone in family has to work

(This does not talk about what govt should do, which should be a different post)

freespirt•2h ago
yes very valid and good points,I think much of what you say is now in process.
impossiblefork•2h ago
>This is not a solution to the problems but to accept the hard reality that there are going to be few generations of people who will have to make peace with a lower standard of living, work hard without getting much in return, so that their grand children will enjoy a much better life.

The problem is that that often isn't what happens. The one who works hard for little in return, rather than catching up, is behind forever. One works for compensation only.

Accepting low wages isn't a 'sacrifice' that is eventually repaid. A sacrifice rather takes the form of working for high wages while saving.

devnull3•1h ago
> is behind forever.

This completely depends on the policies of the future govt. There are many examples (like South Korea, China, India) where the current generation is much better off than previous.

Another example is cliched "American Dream". There is/was some element of truth that if you are sincere and ready to work hard you can still make it in the life. However, I will agree that this can become much harder now.

devnull3•1h ago
> Accepting low wages isn't a 'sacrifice' that is eventually repaid

It is not a question of being eventually repaid. It is to survive to fight another day. There are countless examples of how first generation immigrants (across all ethnicities) have to struggle and sacrifice so that they can provide the foundation for the next generation to thrive.

This is the mode Brits will have to enter into unfortunately.

1718627440•1h ago
But when (2) is what "my" country has to offer, why should I stay? This isn't even the typical tax evasion debate, because retirement is also an issue for average Joe. It's not like the other European countries are any better off, but the first country going to defect on this, is going to loose labour to the other countries, which then might even be able to cash in on their promises.
devnull3•1h ago
I am not sure I understood but the above is written from average Joe pov.

> It's not like the other European countries are any better off

Agree. As I said at the start this is applicable to other rich nations as well like the France.

In short, the UK will go down from 1st world to 2nd world (if one does not like the term: 3rd world).

NoseyParker•1h ago
I hope you do not mind a critique of your generally well-researched article.

1. The non-dom tax was the stupidest tax I've ever heard of. Somehow the owner of the Daily Mail, Lord Rothermere, all sorts seemed to be able to claim non-dominant status, and they were going home shortly to whoever that was. Meanwhile, anyone who moved to the UK from abroad would no doubt have found out on arrival at a low rate that they didn't have to pay tax on their overseas money. They would have shrugged their shoulders, broken into a smile, and moved on.

However far and away the worst part of it was: that person was not subject to UK tax for all of their non-UK investments. Now, only a complete moron would make any UK investments. So their entire contribution was their Mayfair lunch bills and the maids they hired. That had to go, and they (nothing wrong with them individually of course) are no loss.

CGT - it was tomfoolery having it at 10%. Lowest by far amongst industrialised countries (well before the rich stopped having to pay tax at all in US). May as someone lucky enough to start a business and take it to sale, we spoke once about tax on day 1, and then again a year before the end. The idea of embarking on an incredibly ambitious idea, and then handicapping yourself to save 8% on CGT were the millions to come... is what no founders have ever done. Squealing from the hundred millionaires about being $10 million lighter in theory for capital gains. It's a narrow cane was embarrassing. I remember one point out they'd worked on weekends to make this money...

Finally, may I say your examples for international competition are not very fulsome and not very fair. Dubai is a complete red herring of course. Good luck getting that Portuguese visa now. Ireland, you've just picked the one element of their tax code that is lower.

Oh one more. CGT tax rises didn't come in until oct 24, after your 14% decline. Reason they went down is the same reason they always go down - asset prices were down.

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