Show HN: Modeling the US Debt as a Healthcare Pricing Failure ($26T Gap)

https://taprootlogic.substack.com/p/the-us-debt-crisis-a-52-trillion

4•kmundy•1mo ago

I spent the last month rebuilding the US federal budget from 1970–2024 to find the 'Taproot' of our fiscal collapse.

The math suggests we don't have a sovereign debt crisis; we have a pricing crisis.

I isolated federal healthcare spending and compared it to a baseline of CPI + a 1.7% 'Innovation Premium' (using Germany as a control group).

The findings: Federal healthcare overpayment accounts for $26T of our national debt. Without this 'Monopoly Premium,' the US would have barely 9T in debt today. The Structural Cause: I trace this back to the 1997 Residency Cap (supply freeze) and the 85% MLR (which turns insurers into cost-plus contractors)

I'm interested in the community's feedback on the 'Triple Multiplier' logic (Price + Innovation + Interest).

P.S. I'm currently hosting a deeper discussion on the policy implications of this data over on LinkedIn bit.ly/3YEv6kl

Comments

streptomycin•1mo ago

Any thoughts on arguments like https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/why-conventional-wisdom-o... that basically the US spends a lot on healthcare because the US is very rich?

cjbenedikt•1mo ago

Very impressive work. Just followed your Linkedin discussion as well. However, wondering how you not only get this in front of policy makers but also those prepared to pick a fight with incumbents lining their pockets. Needs some brave people. Does this country still have them?

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