Show HN: Modeling the US Debt as a Healthcare Pricing Failure ($26T Gap)

https://taprootlogic.substack.com/p/the-us-debt-crisis-a-52-trillion

4•kmundy•1mo ago

I spent the last month rebuilding the US federal budget from 1970–2024 to find the 'Taproot' of our fiscal collapse.

The math suggests we don't have a sovereign debt crisis; we have a pricing crisis.

I isolated federal healthcare spending and compared it to a baseline of CPI + a 1.7% 'Innovation Premium' (using Germany as a control group).

The findings: Federal healthcare overpayment accounts for $26T of our national debt. Without this 'Monopoly Premium,' the US would have barely 9T in debt today. The Structural Cause: I trace this back to the 1997 Residency Cap (supply freeze) and the 85% MLR (which turns insurers into cost-plus contractors)

I'm interested in the community's feedback on the 'Triple Multiplier' logic (Price + Innovation + Interest).

P.S. I'm currently hosting a deeper discussion on the policy implications of this data over on LinkedIn bit.ly/3YEv6kl

Comments

streptomycin•1mo ago

Any thoughts on arguments like https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/why-conventional-wisdom-o... that basically the US spends a lot on healthcare because the US is very rich?

cjbenedikt•1mo ago

Very impressive work. Just followed your Linkedin discussion as well. However, wondering how you not only get this in front of policy makers but also those prepared to pick a fight with incumbents lining their pockets. Needs some brave people. Does this country still have them?

The next frontier in weight-loss drugs: one-time gene therapy

At Age 25, Wikipedia Refuses to Evolve

Show HN: ReviewReact – AI review responses inside Google Maps ($19/mo)

Why AlphaTensor Failed at 3x3 Matrix Multiplication: The Anchor Barrier

Ask HN: How much of your token use is fixing the bugs Claude Code causes?

Show HN: Agents – Sync MCP Configs Across Claude, Cursor, Codex Automatically

Hello

FSD helped save my father's life during a heart attack

Show HN: Writtte – Draft and publish articles without reformatting, anywhere

Portuguese icon (FROM A CAN) makes a simple meal (Canned Fish Files) [video]

Brookhaven Lab's RHIC Concludes 25-Year Run with Final Collisions

Transcribe your aunts post cards with Gemini 3 Pro

.72% Variance Lance

ReKindle – web-based operating system designed specifically for E-ink devices

Encrypt It

NextMatch – 5-minute video speed dating to reduce ghosting

Personalizing esketamine treatment in TRD and TRBD

SpaceKit.xyz – a browser‑native VM for decentralized compute

NotebookLM: The AI that only learns from you

Show HN: An open-source starter kit for developing with Postgres and ClickHouse

Game Boy Advance d-pad capacitor measurements

South Korean crypto firm accidentally sends $44B in bitcoins to users

Apache Poison Fountain

Web.whatsapp.com appears to be having issues syncing and sending messages

Google in Your Terminal

Shannon: Claude Code for Pen Testing: #1 on Github today

Anthropic: Latest Claude model finds more than 500 vulnerabilities

Brooklyn cemetery plans human composting option, stirring interest and debate

Why the 'Strivers' Are Right

Brain Dumps as a Literary Form