We've seen Gemini 3 Pro, Claude 4.5 Opus, Nano Banana, Sora 2 and a flood of AI apps. But lately, I’ve found myself feeling more pessimistic than excited. While the capabilities are scaling, the operational costs remain brutal.
Comments
felipeerias•1mo ago
The most important point is that even if AI capabilities do not improve much past the current state of the art, the consequences of this technology will still take years to play out, both in tech and in society as a whole.
We are already seeing diminishing returns on state of the art models as training becomes more expensive for smaller relative improvements. For AI companies, attempting the next generational leap becomes an increasingly risky bet, but missing the next generational leap would mean bankruptcy.
In the rest of the tech world, attention and investment will continue to move towards tools build on top of AI models, probably with coding agents as the initial and main focus. AI is a foundational technology, but we are still figuring out what we will build on that foundation.
felipeerias•1mo ago
We are already seeing diminishing returns on state of the art models as training becomes more expensive for smaller relative improvements. For AI companies, attempting the next generational leap becomes an increasingly risky bet, but missing the next generational leap would mean bankruptcy.
In the rest of the tech world, attention and investment will continue to move towards tools build on top of AI models, probably with coding agents as the initial and main focus. AI is a foundational technology, but we are still figuring out what we will build on that foundation.