I think at some point the difference of how much advanced lateral technology there is and can be made will be very abundant
(100s of different phones, AR) different types of designs of what people use and all very customized and fashionable to each person’s taste (people will be able to travel to most places very easily and be incredibly individualistic)
My post from URL further:
I can run storage off solar at home < 20W and all inference on my phone
this century I’d say a phone would be faster than any access I have to any cloud LLMs now
< 5 years 120B model faster?
I think future is likely untethered from any electrical outlet, you’re connected via satellite…
With efficient compression you can already achieve even photorealism at 200-400 megabits and 50ms latency.
If I want more power I can own it at home and connect to it remotely.
If Starlink supports 500 million on its v3…
I’d say you could just use AR on other infrastructure remoted in as well to a few other services… don’t see why anyone can’t own their own, every household only needs enough compute for who’s there…
If AR is also optimized no need for screens anywhere.
i.e. comfortable contact lens with self hosted wireless modules (or portable and efficient projectors and photonics), I won’t be alive but assume some mix of that future very powerful very low overhead customized technology will be what people have access to in like year 2500-3500+
Complete abundance, homes could even be printed or built in a day however you want, fully free experiential commerce…
Neutral digital transactions, some kind of very ubiquitous systems to interact and between these layers (robotics, synthetic video, materials access/manufacturing from small scale to large)
Zoning laws probably will be even more of a vernacular than anything if things can rapidly change so quick…
Questions for responses:
// do you agree/disagree?
// by what year do you think the world will look more like this (maybe some choose more BCI devices), year 2300, 3300?
// if not similar what do you think will then be ubiquitous by the year 3000+, summary of what you envision?
// what similar technologies do you think can be designed/iterated on now over the next 4-30 years closest to this future (or the one you think more likely), 1-3 concepts or things that will have more of an impact (particularly for consumers)?
rawgabbit•1mo ago
My only comment is that your analysis ignores the political dimension. Politics shapes our economic and technological realities. “historical winners shape institutions to protect their own interests”.
usernameisjim•1mo ago
(100s of different phones, AR) different types of designs of what people use and all very customized and fashionable to each person’s taste (people will be able to travel to most places very easily and be incredibly individualistic)
My post from URL further:
I can run storage off solar at home < 20W and all inference on my phone
this century I’d say a phone would be faster than any access I have to any cloud LLMs now
< 5 years 120B model faster?
I think future is likely untethered from any electrical outlet, you’re connected via satellite…
With efficient compression you can already achieve even photorealism at 200-400 megabits and 50ms latency.
If I want more power I can own it at home and connect to it remotely.
If Starlink supports 500 million on its v3…
I’d say you could just use AR on other infrastructure remoted in as well to a few other services… don’t see why anyone can’t own their own, every household only needs enough compute for who’s there…
If AR is also optimized no need for screens anywhere.
i.e. comfortable contact lens with self hosted wireless modules (or portable and efficient projectors and photonics), I won’t be alive but assume some mix of that future very powerful very low overhead customized technology will be what people have access to in like year 2500-3500+
Complete abundance, homes could even be printed or built in a day however you want, fully free experiential commerce…
Neutral digital transactions, some kind of very ubiquitous systems to interact and between these layers (robotics, synthetic video, materials access/manufacturing from small scale to large)
Zoning laws probably will be even more of a vernacular than anything if things can rapidly change so quick…
Questions for responses: // do you agree/disagree?
// by what year do you think the world will look more like this (maybe some choose more BCI devices), year 2300, 3300?
// if not similar what do you think will then be ubiquitous by the year 3000+, summary of what you envision?
// what similar technologies do you think can be designed/iterated on now over the next 4-30 years closest to this future (or the one you think more likely), 1-3 concepts or things that will have more of an impact (particularly for consumers)?
rawgabbit•1mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail