What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.

Waymo has solved it. Tesla and BYD probably will solve it. And then everyone else will solve it for the same reason everyone likes having car factories: jobs and tanks.

I say this as someone who was in a Waymo and used Tesla’s latest FSD less than a month ago. One of them still fails spectacularly ungracefully. In the other I can take a nap.

We no longer have an actual product roadmap of revenue viable product releases from Elon and Tesla. It’s just irrational market exuberance but all the products are being abandoned.

That isn’t really sustainable.

I drive a Y. I’ve said before that Elon was peak Elon when they released the 3/Y and he sent the Roadster into space. Everything since has been a grift of diminishing returns, in terms of reality and actual hardline income.

Grok and xAi are a thing but they mostly cost money right now. I kinda wonder if he isn’t irrationally energetic enough to get something interesting out of Macrohard but he can no longer iterate product releases to save his life.

My other long bet is that Google will win a big chunk of AI (because TPUs and frontier and other income and enterprise sales) and Elon will mostly succeed in outspending OpenAI and plundering their chances (save the magical odds of their Jony Ive bet delivering some kind of post-moat income autonomy). xAI and OpenAI will sink into the deep together.