The good news is, there will be no fossil infrastructure for clean tech to compete with in the developing world; they will leapfrog right to renewables, battery storage, and electric vehicles. India and Africa will not have the struggle the developed world has getting off of their stranded fossil assets and supply chain.
alephnerd•1h ago
That's not true. Even the article points out that the renewables expansion is going hand-in-hand with the expansion of coal (similar to what China saw when it hit similar green electrifications rates 5-6 years ago).
Additonally, countries will continue to invest in traditional fossil fuel technology in order to maintain strategic autonomy - why switch from the OPEC Cartel to China weaponizing REE [0] and Green Tech IP exports [1].
This is why you end up seeing ExAmerica and ExChina IP supply chains for GreenTech being built using Japanese [2], Korean [3], Taiwanese [4], European [5], and Israeli [6] IP.
Strongly disagree based on Pakistan’s uptake. China is already destroying 1M barrels a day of global fossil fuel demand for every 24 months of EV production. 25% of vehicles sold globally last year were battery electric (growing at a rate of 3M-5M units/year), over 50% in China.
Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China.
> Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date.
For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho).
1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China, then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well.
2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech.
3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1]
4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies.
India is adding 2GW of solar every month, with 105GW currently in development pipelines. Of course it remains to be seen if they maintain that pace or accelerate.
Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :)
None of what you said disproves the fact that India has stated it plans to expand coal capacity in parallel until 2047 [0].
It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening.
> India is forging a better path to the electrotech future of energy. Cheap solar and batteries are enabling India to develop without the long fossil detour taken by the West and China.
> When we compare India today with China at equivalent income levels ($11,000 PPP in 2012), several observations emerge:
* Rapid solar deployment. In 2012, China had negligible solar generation. In 2025, solar accounted for 9% of India’s electricity generation, up from half a percent a decade earlier. India has a powerful new tool to scale cheap power, and it is using it to spectacular effect.
* Much lower coal use. Indian per capita coal generation, at 1 MWh, is roughly 40% of China’s level in 2012. Coal demand is approaching its peak and is very unlikely to follow China’s subsequent ramp-up to around 4 MWh per person.
* Rapid growth in EVs. In 2012, China had almost no electric vehicles on the road. By mid-2025, EVs accounted for around 5% of car sales in India and the country is the global leader in electric three-wheeler sales.
* Much lower oil demand for transport. India’s per capita road oil demand, at 96 litres, is about half of China’s level in 2012 and is close to peaking. India is not going to rescue the oil industry.
* A similar rapid electrification pathway. India’s electrification rate is nearly 20%, comparable to China’s level in 2012, and is growing relentlessly by around five percentage points per decade.
alephnerd•1h ago
Lower coal use =/= Not expanding coal.
India's Power Ministry itself has planned coal power expansion [0] until 2047.
India would be electrifying even faster if China wasn't export controlling IP [1] and taking India to the WTO for subsidizing green energy [2]
Words are cheap, trajectories are real. You are entitled to your opinion, but the facts are clean energy trajectories are locked in by economics and manufacturing curves (production, cost, and learning rates).
Modi is 75, he will be replaced eventually with someone new (if only out of life expectancy), and so stated policy through 2050 is not a predicator.
alephnerd•56m ago
But actions are not [0]. India does not view fossil fuels and cleantech as a zero-sum game.
Choosing to ignore the Indian trend of expanding both renewable and fossil fuel capacity is ridiculous.
> Modi is 75, he will be replaced eventually with someone new (if only out of life expectancy)
Modi is expected to remain in office til 2034 [1], and his parents lived into their 90s.
> so stated policy through 2050 is not a predicator.
It is in India, which operates on 5 year plans like China. The current reshoring of fossil fuels is itself due to China's weaponization of export controls [2].
ClimateTech will and is dramatically expanding in India, but India will continue to use fossil fuels as a backstop as long as China remains a national security threat to India.
toomuchtodo•1h ago
alephnerd•1h ago
Additonally, countries will continue to invest in traditional fossil fuel technology in order to maintain strategic autonomy - why switch from the OPEC Cartel to China weaponizing REE [0] and Green Tech IP exports [1].
This is why you end up seeing ExAmerica and ExChina IP supply chains for GreenTech being built using Japanese [2], Korean [3], Taiwanese [4], European [5], and Israeli [6] IP.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitig...
[1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-...
[2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-...
[3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-...
[4] - https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energie...
[5] - https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/
[6] - https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/intern...
toomuchtodo•1h ago
Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-p...
> Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date.
For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho).
https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/
alephnerd•1h ago
2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech.
3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1]
4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps...
[2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/
[3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...
toomuchtodo•1h ago
Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :)
India adds record 35GW+ solar PV in 2025 - https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2... - January 5th, 2026
alephnerd•1h ago
It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening.
[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...
toomuchtodo•1h ago
> India is forging a better path to the electrotech future of energy. Cheap solar and batteries are enabling India to develop without the long fossil detour taken by the West and China.
> When we compare India today with China at equivalent income levels ($11,000 PPP in 2012), several observations emerge:
* Rapid solar deployment. In 2012, China had negligible solar generation. In 2025, solar accounted for 9% of India’s electricity generation, up from half a percent a decade earlier. India has a powerful new tool to scale cheap power, and it is using it to spectacular effect.
* Much lower coal use. Indian per capita coal generation, at 1 MWh, is roughly 40% of China’s level in 2012. Coal demand is approaching its peak and is very unlikely to follow China’s subsequent ramp-up to around 4 MWh per person.
* Rapid growth in EVs. In 2012, China had almost no electric vehicles on the road. By mid-2025, EVs accounted for around 5% of car sales in India and the country is the global leader in electric three-wheeler sales.
* Much lower oil demand for transport. India’s per capita road oil demand, at 96 litres, is about half of China’s level in 2012 and is close to peaking. India is not going to rescue the oil industry.
* A similar rapid electrification pathway. India’s electrification rate is nearly 20%, comparable to China’s level in 2012, and is growing relentlessly by around five percentage points per decade.
alephnerd•1h ago
India's Power Ministry itself has planned coal power expansion [0] until 2047.
India would be electrifying even faster if China wasn't export controlling IP [1] and taking India to the WTO for subsidizing green energy [2]
[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...
[1] - https://www.mercomindia.com/china-tightens-curbs-on-export-o...
[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-files-wto-complain...
toomuchtodo•59m ago
Modi is 75, he will be replaced eventually with someone new (if only out of life expectancy), and so stated policy through 2050 is not a predicator.
alephnerd•56m ago
Choosing to ignore the Indian trend of expanding both renewable and fossil fuel capacity is ridiculous.
> Modi is 75, he will be replaced eventually with someone new (if only out of life expectancy)
Modi is expected to remain in office til 2034 [1], and his parents lived into their 90s.
> so stated policy through 2050 is not a predicator.
It is in India, which operates on 5 year plans like China. The current reshoring of fossil fuels is itself due to China's weaponization of export controls [2].
ClimateTech will and is dramatically expanding in India, but India will continue to use fossil fuels as a backstop as long as China remains a national security threat to India.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...
[1] - https://theprint.in/opinion/why-pm-modi-has-staked-claim-for...
[2] - https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/cag/publications/center-publicatio...