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Surely [the crash of the US economy] has to be soon

https://wilsoniumite.com/2026/01/27/surely-it-has-to-be-soon/
12•Wilsoniumite•1h ago

Comments

sgt•1h ago
What does a crash mean though? I remember people talking for years about the 2008 crash, but to be honest I never noticed it, nor did most people I know. We just kinda read about in the newspaper.
mtsolitary•1h ago
How old are you?
sgt•1h ago
Dude I'm born in the 80s! I am well aware there was a crash but.. I cannot recall a single thing that affected me or anyone else I am close to. Note that I'm not in the US though.
adrian17•1h ago
> Here’s the current price of silver. (…) People buy precious metals when they might be worried about the value of fiat currencies, like, I don’t know, the dollar.

My (non-economist) understanding was that the silver price spikes were caused by supply issues (China export restrictions, tariffs) during rising demand (and speculation), and not by a rush to replace fiat? A bit surprised the author didn’t mention that at all.

Wilsoniumite•16m ago
I'm not an economist either and definitely could be wrong, but my understanding of precious metals markets has been that they are mostly driven by speculative pressures rather than demand/supply ones, unlike most other commodities, which is why I framed it that way. Much more gold and silver sits in storage than is mined or used every year, so even a significant relative shift in production/use has little effect on the price.

I have worked close to the trading floor at a financial institution, and there, precious metals are sometimes modeled more as currencies than as commodities for this reason.

It's not necessarily a rush to replace fiat, people just like the idea of a safe asset whos scarcity is secured.

wesammikhail•13m ago
You can be directionally right but still lose a whole lot of money as an investor for decades on end even when you're right about the eventual outcome. Predicting future outcomes is orders of magnitude easier than predicting the exact moment/timing. After all, "markets can stay irrational for far longer than you can stay solvent".

This is why Burry, schiff, and a bunch of others keep predicting a collapse for decades on end. They're directionally right, they see a pattern but cant seem to time it right.

My prediction: I think this clusterfuck will keep going until

1. Unbearable irrationality: The US owes more money than there is money in the whole world. Measured using something like global M1 or M2 or something of that nature. Basically the system will need to reach a level of irrationality that even its biggest defenders can't cope with. OR,

2. Demographics: Most boomers die of old age after raiding whatever remains of the treasury.

Coincidentally, if my quick math is right, both of these scenarios are very likely to coincide within the next ~10 years or so. So make of that what you want...

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