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Tesla ending Models S and X production

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla-ending-model-s-x-production.html
80•keyboardJones•1h ago

Comments

shawn_w•1h ago
No more S3XY lineup of models? I'm surprised Musk was okay with breaking that up.
avar•1h ago
3YC is the new S3XY.
RA2lover•37m ago
YC3.
avar•15m ago
CYR3S, if we're going to add Roadster and Semi, both of which are allegedly still in development.
plun9•16m ago
C3CSY
Cornbilly•1h ago
They need more room to make the next stock pump scheme look legit.

I'm sure they already have enough inventory to last a while and demand is probably cratering because of Elon's Twitter posts and the fact that Tesla never refreshes their models.

NoPicklez•1h ago
They've just refreshed their Model 3 and Model Y within the last year or so. With the model Y looking considerably different so I'm not sure where you got that from
Cornbilly•1h ago
I can give you the Model Y but take a look at the rest of the lineup compared to when they were first released. Hell, you're in this very post calling the S/X old.
NoPicklez•1h ago
Why is it seen initially so negatively?

There's nothing inherently wrong with a company deciding to stop producing models that are extremely old, have newer comparable models that are more widely available globally and sell multiples more of. So why would you keep those older models?

If anything its a good thing. But its Tesla so nothing they do will be spoken positively of.

mrcwinn•43m ago
You are, of course, exactly right but you will nevertheless be downvoted for the same reasons you allude to.
browningstreet•15m ago
As a car company the expectation is that they develop new car models for consumers. They don’t seem to be doing that either.
tensor•14m ago
I'm not surprised at the X, but the S has always been the flagship model with all the best features and the top performance. The 3 is a fine mid-sized car but it's very strange to get rid of your flagship model. Those always cater to a small audience anyways.
breve•13m ago
> Why is it seen initially so negatively?

Because Tesla is being measured against the benchmarks they set for themselves. It's not a good look with cancelled models, declining sales, and a lot of self-inflicted brand damage.

Musk used to claim Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...

The new goal is to have sold 20 million in total by 2035. That target represents a further decline in sales. And, given that Tesla over-hypes everything, maybe they won't achieve it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/business/elon-musk-tesla-...

SilverElfin•1h ago
Feels a lot like giving up. I guess this is why there is such a strong change in the Tesla messaging, to Robotaxis and robots. But maybe this is inevitable. The cars being made in China are pretty amazing and I don’t think it is possible for American or European companies to compete.
reactordev•1h ago
We outsourced it and it would take us 10 years to retool and rebuild that kind of capability. No one wants to take that kind of investment on.
stackghost•52m ago
The narrative from Musk cultists has been "Tesla isn't a car company, it's a bet on $excuse_du_jour" for at least a year and a half.
baron816•53m ago
> converting Fremont factory lines to make Optimus robots

I’m very bullish on humanoid robots, but this seems absolutely batshit insane to me. These things are no where near ready for full scale production.

ocdtrekkie•45m ago
Elon Musk says something absolutely insane on the weekly. Almost none of it actually happens.
mrcwinn•43m ago
That’s just nonsense, of course. Almost everything he says happens. It rarely happens on time.
etchalon•31m ago
A few of the things he says will happen, happen. Many of them happen late.

Most of what he says will happen never happens, but people point to the few things that did happen, but were late, and say, "This too will happen."

malfist•30m ago
Almost everything he says happens? Thats pretty far from the truth. Isn't Tesla still embroiled in a legal tussle over "full self drive"? What about the $30k model 3? What about the $200/kg to space?

He has very little connection to the truth. He's a hypeman and a conman

rogerrogerr•10m ago
There are driverless Teslas roaming Texas giving rides _right now_. It happened. It was late, and there will be some fallout for HW3 compatibility with unsupervised FSD, but it happened.
breve•4m ago
Tesla still doesn't have full autonomy. They've been lying about it for a decade:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

https://electrek.co/2026/01/28/teslas-unsupervised-robotaxis...

https://electrek.co/2026/01/28/tesla-is-still-trying-to-dece...

browningstreet•12m ago
On a scale of “happens” on one end to “doesn’t happen” on the other, he has a few “happens” that Elon fans will try and anchor against the weight of the enormous load down at the “doesn’t happen” end.
wombatpm•41m ago
If the can walk and randomly fire teargas and bullets into crowds of protesters they could replace half of ICE right now.
jmyeet•50m ago
It seems fairly easy to find figures on how many cars Tesla has produced each quarter but, surprisingly (at least to me), it's harder to find compiled information on (for each quarter):

- Average Selling Price;

- Cars produced vs cars sold;

- How many unsold cars are in inventory. I did find this [1];

- A model breakdown of the above 2.

The reason I'm interested in this because my theory is that:

1. Sales have been shifting from the Model S/X to the Model 3/Y, which reduces average selling price and overall profit. Stopping production is really about the inventory glut;

2. Unsold inventory is going up, particularly for the Cybertruck; and

3. Tesla marketshare is collapsing in many markets due to a combination of brand collapse among the most likely EV buyers and competition from lower-priced alternatives, particularly Chinese EVs in developing markets.

So what exactly is propping up this company at an above $1T market cap?

[1]: https://electrek.co/2025/06/17/tesla-tsla-inventory-overflow...

lotsofpulp•10m ago
While this isn’t sale price data, it should be pretty close, and the trends should be clear:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1F5IQOynIawoXiJPV...

harshaw•48m ago
I am confused about what Tesla is doing. They have effectively two automobile products now with one failed product (cybertruck). reading various articles about this doesn't make it more clear. Do they not want to be a car company?
RickJWagner•45m ago
EVs are becoming commoditized. Tesla doesn’t have the scale ( or experience ) to play that angle.
Ancalagon•38m ago
literally what are the gigafactories for then?
observationist•36m ago
Batteries - lots of uses beyond EVs, but lots of EVs are making use of the batteries they can produce, as well.
Ancalagon•28m ago
you could make the same argument about batteries. Panasonic and other exist.
tyre•13m ago
The benefit of having control is that they can adapt them to their priorities. Similar Apple designing its own chips when there were already viable producers in the market.

They won’t need to rely on others prioritizing their priorities, like low volume, high cost early investments in batteries designed for a market (humanoid robots) that doesn’t exist.

If they then scale them up, they also have the benefit that there is no 3p supplier who can turn around and sell those to a competitor.

mrcwinn•44m ago
You should probably keep reading.

Elon for years has said Tesla is not a car company. He’s also said the “factory is the product.” Tesla also has energy divisions and investments, as well as xAI investments now.

Logically given that Model S and X are something like less than 5% of deliveries (and have been for years), if they’re right about Optimus, that capacity will generate far greater revenue.

tempestn•12m ago
Optimus is complete vapourware. The quoted 1M units a year is laughable. It would be utterly unbelievable from any company, let alone Tesla with their history of over-promising.
tchalla•43m ago
> Tesla's far more popular models are the 3 and Y, which accounted for 97% of the company's 1.59 million deliveries last year. The Model 3 now starts at about $37,000, and the Model Y is around $40,000. Tesla debuted more affordable versions of the vehicles late last year.

I’m confused as to what’s not clear from the article for you?

Neywiny•11m ago
Agreed. I also thought it was a very dumb move until I saw that. That said, 3% but it costs 2.5x as much, maybe people option them higher idk, that could be a 10% revenue hit. But maybe that's worth it for them
vannevar•35m ago
The problem with being a car company is that they'd have to compete with China. It's possible, but they'd have to make additional capital investments to keep up. They've just wasted a ton of money on a failed Musk vanity project (Cybertruck) and squandered a ton of goodwill in their home market via the DOGE fiasco. Cash flow is not what it once was, and if they're going to make a big capital investment, they're probably right in looking at robots. But that strategy puts them back where they were 20 years ago, just getting started in EVs, and their cash flow will depend on cars for many years to come.
jeltz•14m ago
Right now they struggle to compete with European car manufacturers, there is no way they can compete with China.
doctorpangloss•18m ago
it's very difficult to have a conversation about this, because it would appear that sincere answers to your question will get downvoted. one POV is that, if you accept the bear case from Internet commenters that these guys are incompetent or stupid - blah blah blah, Cybetruck - the existence of their autonomous taxi product is extremely bullish. they managed to pull off something similar to Waymo despite being so much worse at it, yes? I'm not sure they will even need a diverse product line of premium cars, if they can sell an autonomous 3 for the price of a small house. on the flip side, the bear case there is, if they could figure it out, so will a lot of other car companies. and yet, Cruise ceased operations, and Tesla will seemingly pay a manageable amount of blood money for Autopilot and move on.

nobody really can predict the future, so unsurprisingly, "reading various articles about this doesn't make it more clear." but people on the Internet keep getting worked up about it. to me, people do not comprehend the meaning of "high risk, high reward."

tyre•8m ago
imo their competition for autonomous vehicles doesn’t come from car companies, but from tech companies.

Amazon has a lucrative incentive to automate its supply chain up to and including last mile delivery. Waymo has proven out the tech and could easily partner with Uber or Lyft for the rider experience and reach.

If you’re FedEx, for example, would you rather buy from Amazon or from Tesla? Who is more likely to be a sane and trustworthy partner?

mosdl•6m ago
Their autonomous taxi program is a joke right now, especially compared to Waymo. Way fewer cities/rides, and they haven't even deployed their cybertaxi thing.
SloppyDrive•10m ago
Its not that strange; normally manufactures are focused on volume and brand. So you have the 3 and Y in numbers where they can compete in the mass market price range; and CT and FSD for brand notoriety.

S and Y are not special enough to do anything for the brand, they dont qualify as halo products anymore. Probably still wouldnt be that interesting even if refreshed.

CT is still interesting, it looks different and has some tech inside that seems worthwhile to iterate on.

And unlike traditional brands, tesla has FSD, Optimus, and Musk to do enough to keep the brand itself healthy.

My guess would be they are deciding what they can learn by iterating the CT, and might decide to drop it in a year or two when the roadster takes the halo role.

They will keep trying to improve on volume for 3 and Y.

reenorap•46m ago
Dropping the S and X is going to kill the market for them. Who is going to buy a car that they know is getting discontinued?
jdross•43m ago
Including Cybertruck, it's just 2.75% of sales

Q4 sales: Model 3 & Model Y: 406,585 deliveries All Other Models (S/X/Cybertruck): 11,642 deliveries

_1•42m ago
It's not like they aren't going to support any new purchases.
smileysteve•32m ago
S launched in 2012.

X launched in 2016.

Both launched with slow rollouts.

Meanwhile, the average car in use today is 13 years old and getting older. (I currently drive a 22 year old car)

It definitely turns me off buying a used model S to know it's being discontinued. And if I extrapolate that to the 3/Y, a new purchase.

Given my desire for a midsize family sedan, it makes it feel like BMW i4 or Porsche Taycan just won me over in the future.

ebbi•38m ago
Carmakers discontinue models all the time. The support network is still around, and parts will still be produced for a while.
tapoxi•14m ago
Yeah but most companies have a few dozen models, Tesla has 4.
tcdent•44m ago
Nobody here seems to remember that this was always the plan: release expensive cars to bootstrap the company which allows them to release progressively cheaper cars until everyone can afford one.

Not a fanboy, but this seems like it went exactly according to plan.

malfist•34m ago
Where exactly are those cheaper cars? Still waiting for a 30k model 3 like promised.
willio58•29m ago
Elon got distracted and decided we want humanoid robots.
avar•23m ago
You already have it. Musk's earliest promise of a $30k price point appears to be an interview in September 2009: https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2009/09/25/teslas-elon-musk-on-...

Adjusted for inflation, $30k then is around $45k now. Tesla sells a Model 3 for just over $35k.

It doesn't make any sense to hold someone to a promise like that and not adjust it for inflation. I think you can legitimately complain that he didn't meet the timeline he was aiming for.

cmxch•22m ago
Buy it used?
tensor•12m ago
Nowhere in that plan was "only produce cheap cars." Unless you're aim is to be the budget brand, it's bizarre behaviour not to have a top end flagship model.
inerte•6m ago
Yes. It's interesting to see a consequence of this strategy, which is at least some part of your model 3/Y customers bought it because "it is a Tesla", and being Tesla is premium. If you get rid of the premium, you lose that aura. But maybe the impact is small.
mrcwinn•42m ago
I’m a little sad (nostalgic?) about this decision. Model S is a truly historic vehicle.
vannevar•41m ago
The next shoe to drop will be shifting Model Y production from Fremont to Austin. Fremont will make Model 3s. Austin will make Model Ys and Robotaxis/2s. Cybertruck will be canceled. None of the Tesla plants will be making robots at any scale for many years.
phendrenad2•17m ago
Yeah I don't buy this announcement. Converting their huge Fremont facility to just making humanoid robots? Do they have some large buyer or something? I'm skeptical.
tempestn•15m ago
Agreed, let alone 1M units a year!
dzonga•37m ago
Tesla has no moat - but one thing I will give to Elon is his incredible strategy in building Tesla

1. Build sports car

2. Use that money to build an affordable car

3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car

4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

he got distracted by side-missions, his personal shitty side

however if you separate the ideas from the person you can see how such a simple strategy was executed successfully

willio58•30m ago
The thing is it’s hard to stop at 4.

5. Peace out from Tesla for a while to pivot hard into far-right politics, using outsized power and influence to wage culture wars, alienate core customers, and inject volatility into a brand that was built on trust, optimism, and engineering credibility.

6. Unveil Optimus as the next grand pillar of the vision, not as a shipping product but as a perpetual demo, a future-shaped distraction that soaks up attention while core execution, margins, and credibility quietly erode.

kanbara•10m ago
it’s not a difficult strategy to come up with, tbh. tech companies do this sort of thing all the time.
xnx•32m ago
I'm almost surprised they didn't end model 3 production too. Benefit would be much smaller since 3 and y are already so similar.
throwaway85825•32m ago
By the same logic it costs less to keep the 3 in production.
bhouston•30m ago
Tesla is a meme stock in a similar manner to GME. You cannot bet against them even if they have incredibly unsure future prospectives because there are too many believers who will buy any dips.
formvoltron•30m ago
Tesla's secret weapon will be the dyson sphere. Probably complete within 2.. 3 years maximum.
eco•9m ago
Elon's $1T tranches are mostly based on market cap, right? Switching from just a carmaker to a "physical AI" company could be all he needs to convince the stock market to ignore Tesla's declining profits and raise the market cap even higher.

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