This is wrong on so many levels. Most companies (including our agency) bet on self hosted "free" LLMs to solve every day problems. The only costs we have is hardware and electricity. And that won't increase on a high scale. Furthermore, AI is already driving productivity measureable in our company. What will probably happen is that software prices will drop big times but this is fine and predictable. Still engineers are needed to solve business processes, discuss with customers and find solutions for their problems.
Judge on your own if you have the time. I can't recommend the reading.
This is something that happens when people feel threatened, actually, but he has a lot of credentials, and reading them makes me convinced that he shouldn't feel threatened by AI, at least not on this level.
Very weird.
Because the “The AI Bubble Is 17 Times the Size of the Dot-Com Frenzy — and
Four Times the Subprime Bubble” (oh, and also, there is also a new subprime
bubble—and it’s already collapsing, which will make all of this worse).
It's not 17 times the size of the Dot-Com, certainly not scaled with the total market valuation. Much of the money that has been "promised" has not be delivered and there is a LOT of circularity to the funding, but it's not $Trillons yet. Many of the companies are still private, haven't gone up much, or are only fractionally floated so the numbers look big. But, it doesn't look like there's a huge moat, and it's going to be expensive to pay for those training servers with inference. The depreciation is all wrong, they're not in the right places, and power consumption isn't optimized. TSMC is probably gonna sell more chips to make it so.At the same time, it's great to be a user of a "free" product. LLMs work as well as Google search used to! It's great! You can't believe everything you read on the internet, but if you know enough to verify it, it's incredibly useful. If you build an OpenClaw footgun, you deserve the consequences, even if your other victims probably don't. Will the "AI" companies end up paying for it all by exfiltrating their "customers' data? Facebook and Google did.
But for other uses, i.e. companies who've just thrown AI money at the wall, probably using chatGPT, they wonder why they're not getting the return on investment they were promised. It's all a bit confused at the moment. Rather like the beginning of the internet days were.
ronsor•1h ago