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Drone Attack on Parked U.S. Army BlackHawk in Iraq a Harbinger of What's to Come

https://www.twz.com/air/drone-attack-on-parked-u-s-army-black-hawk-in-iraq-a-harbinger-of-whats-to-come
44•jerlam•1h ago

Comments

Teever•1h ago
Imagine a small quadcopter with deployment and transportation device packaged discretely inside an Amazon box.

The box is shipped internationally and sent to a package delivery company that gets a job to deliver the box to an abandoned lot near an airforce base in bumfuck nowhere America.

Once the package is delivered the deployment device cuts the top of the box open and lets the drone out. The drone flies in the direction of the base and then kamikazes on the nearest helicopter or aircraft shaped object that it sees.

What’s the counter to that?

Or imagine a scenario where a country launches a weather balloon full of the same kinds of drones but equipped with solar panels.

The weather balloon explodes like a piñata and deploys all these drones over a vast area. The drones are programmed to make their way to different military or infrastructure targets and stop and recharge high places out of site of people and maybe only travel at night. They slowly make their way over days or weeks until they find their target. They’re designed to self destruct if they sense that they’re being handled by a human being.

What’s the counter to that?

DenisM•56m ago
Laser turrets near highest-value targets?

It becomes defense in depth though, perimeter defense is no longer enough. Thats kinda new.

egorfine•4m ago
Laser takes as much as 10s to disable a single plastic drone at a distance of ~400 meters. The slowest drone flies at 20 m/s.

So realistically a laser drone weapon can eliminate just a couple of drones until a third or a fourth one comes through and destroys your turret.

dev-ns8•47m ago
Something very similar to this was pulled of by Ukraine last year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb

Veserv•45m ago
Automatic turret-mounted anti-air shotguns. Blow up 100 $ drones for the cost of a 0.50 $ shotgun shell.

I bet you could do aiming and firing in less than 0.1 seconds with nearly 100% accuracy in the 50 meter range which would enable ~10 destroyed drones per unit if the drones are going 150 km/h.

Shotgun pellets are also basically entirely safe when shot into the air as they have low falling velocity enabling usage when shooting over populated areas.

bink•44m ago
And some Canada Gooses too?
sjkoelle•40m ago
trust the gooses
Teever•35m ago
How many shotguns? How do they reload? What happens when they run out of ammo?

Can they be hacked, or duped into firing at friendly aircraft?

How will they deal with the enemy adapting their drones to have camoflage?

There's no way automatic turret mounted shotguns are the solution to this problem.

It simply isn't economical to produce, install and maintain all of these things, and now you've sunk a massive amount of resources into this infrastructure when the enemy doesn't even really have to launch a real attack.

prepend•31m ago
I suspect they will run out of ammo much after the enemy runs out of drones.
kibwen•15m ago
What's their supply chain for being restocked with ammo? Is that supply chain susceptible to drone attacks along any part? Then you still lose eventually.
rationalist•26m ago
They might reload the same way semi-automatic shotguns reload.

Without writing an essay, I can definitely see automatic turtent mounted shotguns as an effective solution.

Teever•12m ago
Imagine you're playing tower defense.

Now picture an American military base. They're pretty big, right?

Now imagine how many of these shotgun towers you need to secure the paremeter based on the firing range of these weapons, then imagine how many you shotgun towers you need to defend the interior of the base from drones that don't attack from the side but instead come in from the middle because they can fly.

How much ammunition can each of these shotgun towers hold? What happens when it runs out? Does a human have to go over there and refill it? What kind of equipment do they use to do that? How much time does this take and how much fuel does it consume? What is the opportunity cost of this?

Now that's just one military installation. How many does the US have? Are you going to put these shotgun towers outside the homes of high ranking military officers? The roads that they take to go to work?

What's stopping someone from doing this kind of drone attack on the highway to the military installation timed with the morning or evening commute? What's the counter to that?

Automated shotguns are not an economically viable defense to the threats that I described in my previous post.

AftHurrahWinch•3m ago
Great questions, I will reinstall Factorio for research purposes and get right back to you.
lelanthran•33m ago
> Automatic turret-mounted anti-air shotguns. Blow up 100 $ drones for the cost of a 0.50 $ shotgun shell.

Yeah, doable. I went to a clay pigeon range last week (company outing). These are targets that move quite fast. They don't spring out from the same spot and some roll over the ground. I had never handled a gun before. I am 50, with the attendant poor eyesight and lack of twitch reflexes.

And yet, I still nailed 20/25 moving targets. A turret with a shotgun is going to hit much more than that.

FpUser•5m ago
Then how come on Ukraine / Russian front drones rule. would not be the case if those were so easy to shoot down
05•29m ago
Which only protect a small area, so drones just need to target less obvious things. Meanwhile your guns shoot birds and once in a while - an occasional bystander. Attackers are always advantaged since you have to protect _everything_ and they only need to target what's left unprotected. Some drones just drop grenades, I somehow don't see your shotgun hitting either the drone (too high) or a grenade (too fast and small).
Veserv•14m ago
> Which only protect a small area

We have these things called wheels. Or you could mount it on a drone.

> Meanwhile your guns shoot birds and once in a while - an occasional bystander

We are discussing protecting military bases or military assets.

> Some drones just drop grenades

That requires flying above the target. See counter-point 1.

Please put in the minimal effort needed to follow through at least a few steps of argument and counter-argument in your head. I assure you I am not putting in as little effort into my arguments as you did.

kibwen•17m ago
> Blow up 100 $ drones for the cost of a 0.50 $ shotgun shell.

Then two drones approach from opposite sides at 200 MPH. Your emplacement costs more than $200 and can only fire in one direction at a time.

Or, as we've seen in Ukraine, once your disposable low-cost drones have precisely identified a high-value, high-effectiveness static emplacement, you send in a cruise missile to clear it out, and then the drones continue sweeping forward.

rtkwe•11m ago
Drones that can move that fast have extremely little cargo capacity for explosive charges and it's not fast enough to simply use the kinetic energy of the drone for much.
prepend•32m ago
I would imagine the counter is computer vision defense systems that cover an entire base. And then eventually infrastructure.

And then all drones tracked by satellite so any drone that doesnt show up gets shot down anywhere over a large geographic area.

Using cheaper drones to hunt down expensive drones.

Or of course, just eagles.

IncreasePosts•31m ago
Park your aircraft in hangars. And hope you hid your tracks well enough once the generals start eyeing their almost expired bunker busters with a twinkle in their eye
Eextra953•14m ago
I think going low-tech and deploy netting around critical things would be the most effective. Sure they are a pain but they'll catch drones before they reach any targets.
uniq7•12m ago
Mandatory package screenings to detect explosives? I don't know if that's technically feasible at scale, or if that's already implemented (and I'd prefer not to ask that kind of question to Google/ChatGPT)
markdown•9m ago
Customs inspection. An xray paired with some ai.

But why go through all that when you can just have someone in the country launch it, or drop it off?

lejalv•7m ago
The counter to this and more such scenarios is letting the world alone
parsimo2010•6m ago
This: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centurion_C-RAM With a software update to track drones. They can hit birds and mortars, they can take out a drone.

Or this: https://www.epirusinc.com/electronic-warfare if you think the C-RAM would get saturated. Whether the weather balloon drones move at night is irrelevant if you stop the last move they need to make.

Militaries have been defending themselves against attacks for as long as they've been around. Drones will change the way they fight a little, but it isn't going to be some magic pill that modern militaries can't adapt to. Hiding an explosive and then blowing it up when your target is nearby? That's almost the same concept as assassinating someone with a car bomb. Putting it in an Amazon box and letting the drone go the final distance changes things a little, but militaries and governments were able to assassinate people remotely before drones.

Swarming attacks with cheap munitions? Saturating an enemy's defenses has been a thing at least since the time of the English Longbow. The longbow regiments would all shoot at the same time, and while you could dodge one arrow it was hard to dodge all of them.

Drones are new and will take some adapting to. If a military refuses to change then it probably will be disadvantaged. But the US military has been buying and testing drones for a while, and is already undergoing the adaptation. As it better understands cheap drones for offense, it necessarily gains a better understanding of what is needed for defense.

To be clear, I'm not advocating for the US attacking Iran. All I'm saying is that the US military is not about to lose the conflict because of this particular tactic.

exabrial•5m ago
Ironically, Ukraine sort of did this to Russia and destroyed several long range strategic nuclear bombers.
scarecrowbob•4m ago
The usual thing that most of us do is not do things that make other folks want to blow our vehicles up. That's how I've avoided getting my stuff blown up, at least.

Everything else is a half measure.

caycep•2m ago
I feel like this was a plot/subplot of either Diamond Age or one of the Gibson novels
carefree-bob•1h ago
This is the type of stuff Ukraine has been doing against Russian assets. It's effectifve asymmetrical warfare when you lose air superiority.

We may even need to revisit what air superiority means in the age of long range, relatively stealthy drones that are cheap to produce using widely available tech.

I also would expect Russian and Chinese Satellite intel being fed to Iran to locate these types of targets, again exactly like how the NATO powers have been providing intel to Ukraine.

AlecSchueler•19m ago
Russia for sure but why would China take such an active position?
lejalv•10m ago
Because how much oil they (used to) get from Iran
carefree-bob•7m ago
China is allied with Iran and has long term trade relations with the country, importing large amounts of oil from Iran, and supplying Iran with air defense systems and other military and economic support.

China also views the US as a strategic rival and would love the opportunity to take us down a peg.

Don't think that America's strategic opponents -- Russia, North Korea, Iran, China, Algeria do not provide some mutual support, even if for purposes of survival, and view the US as threat. We have already taken out Venezuela, Lybia, Syria and flipped Armenia. Cuba, Iran are next on our radar, but we are active all over the world trying to flip pro-Russian/pro-Chinese governments to pro-US governments.

rurp•6m ago
China views the US as an adversary. They would very much like to reduce America's sphere of influence and are cognizant of the fact that we might end up in a war in the medium term future. The US bleeding immense amounts of money and military assets in Iran is great for China's relative strength; it's in their interest to increase those costs in ways that don't escalate immediate tensions with America. Sharing targeting and other intel is one of the more effective ways of doing that.
bigbadfeline•5m ago
China depends on Iranian oil, I'm pretty sure they view that war as a attack on China by proxy, it's a big deal.
ge96•58m ago
Was mentioned how it's a medevac heli (blurred it)
freediddy•18m ago
The biggest security threat any country has is if an adversary sends 1-10 million drones at once, each with a small grenade on it, and overwhelms a city. They could literally target individual politicians or weak spots on infrastructure like buildings or bombs and almost nothing could stop it except possibly an EMP.

I'm not sure what anyone can do about that but that to me is my biggest fear about the future of all this technology.

rtkwe•14m ago
Right now one of the limits is just controlling that many let along sourcing it. Putting that many actively controlled drones in one area at once and you'll swamp the bandwidth.
packetlost•6m ago
The drones in Ukraine largely use miles-long spools of fiber optic cable, so while I agree that sourcing is a problem, bandwidth likely isn't. If you want to be creative there's probably a bunch of hybrid wireless/wired/semi-autonomous configurations that would allow for minimizing bandwidth requirements in practice, but it would still fall apart as soon as a reasonably powerful jammer is turned on.
freediddy•1m ago
They would just be autonomous. Setting a GPS (or alternate system) coordinate is pretty simple enough. Individual targets could just be AI controlled at this point, or 10 years in the future.
FpUser•13m ago
>"1-10 million drones at once"

get real please.

kennywinker•10m ago
1-10 million drones. At $400 a pop that’s $400,000,000-$4,000,000,000. A lot to throw at a single attack when you don’t actually know what defenses are in place. Maybe there is an EMP. Are you willing to spend a billion dollars to find out, while also murdering hundreds of thousands of civilians?

And these are either autonomous drones (more expensive?), or fpv with the fiber optic line out the back - either way you have to get them in range without being detected somehow.

In short, i think this is an unrealistic scenario - fun to imagine as a horror-sci-fi idea but unlikely to be deployed. Just one opinion.

Implicated•5m ago
> At $400 a pop that’s $400,000,000-$4,000,000,000. A lot to throw at a single attack when you don’t actually know what defenses are in place.

Have you seen the price tag on some of the US jets? Are they not doing just this?

kennywinker•4m ago
Jets aren’t single-use. A better comparison would be something like a tomahawk missile, which costs ~$2mil each (not counting r&d costs, launcher costs, getting them there costs, etc).
freediddy•3m ago
This isn't a game of Command and Conquer with fog of war turned on. Of course they would have intel on exactly what they are going to attack. One cruise missile is about $4 million.

China already has created a UAV that is designed to launch at least 100 drones. If they can make that 1000 drones and then fly out 1000 of these motherships at one time, that's already 1 million.

And yes the drones would be autonomous, there's no reason for any person to be controlling them in the age of AI.

mitthrowaway2•4m ago
Aren't drones quite short-ranged, especially when carrying a payload?
hrdwdmrbl•15m ago
" Trump said that “we don’t need help,” adding that the “last person we need help from is Zelenskyy.” "

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/iran-negotiate...

srean•3m ago
That means it's exactly from Zelensky that he wants help.
mindslight•1m ago
[delayed]
hrdwdmrbl•14m ago
How long until an F35 is destroyed by a drone?
FpUser•11m ago
There US has more then 600 of those with more coming. Losing one is insignificant.
iammjm•4m ago
won't happen for now, drones are generally too slow for that. Unless it's stationary/on the ground. Ukrainians did manage to shoot down 2 russian KA-52 helicopters mid-flight last week though.
ChrisMarshallNY•13m ago
There was this The Register story, a couple of days ago[0]. It says we can't handle drone swarms.

[0] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/23/nato_air_defenses/

general1465•4m ago
I can already see Iran making FPV compilation "Death faces of American soldiers" where target is to show face of terrified soldier from the last frame of FPV camera, right before FPV exploded. This is would be a weapon of massive demoralization when relatives of soldiers will be sifting through Iranian Telegram channels just to find video with their relative right before being killed or maimed.

This is a massive propaganda tool for Iran waiting to be used to full extent.

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