For some context, they added 2x Palantir or .75x Shopify or .68x Adobe annual revenue in March alone.
Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality. My codebase quality and overall app experience has improved since I started using agents to code. You can leverage AI to test as well as write new code.
Personally I write something like 80-90% of my code with agents now but after they finish up, it's critical that you spin up another agent to clean up the code that the first one wrote.
Looking at their code it's clear they do not do this (or do this enough). Like the main file being something like 4000 LOC with 10 different functions all jammed in the same file. And this sort of pattern is all over the place in the code.
> I assume most of their outages is related to this insane scaling and lack of available compute.
>
> Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality
> What exactly are emergent features when vibe coding?
The LLM has no concept of "taste" on its own.
Scalability, in particular, is a problem that goes beyond the code itself and also includes decisions that happen outside of the codebase. Infrastructure and "platform" in particular has a big impact on how to scale an application and dataset.
[0] https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/ai-may-be-making-us-th...
You are talking about software scaling patterns, Anthropic is running into hardware limitations because they are maxing out entire datacenters. That's not an architectural decision it's a financial gamble to front-run tens of billions in capacity ahead of demand.
Fwiw there are worse delays from second tier providers like moonshot's kimik2.5 that are also popular for agentic use.
It's actually via quantum entanglement.
So?
0 as of this writing, it's noticeable. Lots of "should I continue?" And "you should run this command if you want to see that information." Roadblocks that I hadn't seen in a year+
I have cancelled my subscription last week, I'll see them when they fix this nonesense
That has led to a significant number of people switching over from openai, or at least stating they were going to do so.
Pentagon: No
OpenAI: We are okay if the line is merely a suggestion and we encourage you not to cross it!
Pentagon: Yes we pick that option
Day 1: 2
Day 2: 3
Day 3: 1
Not sure how I can hit such limits so quickly with such low scores on its own chart.
They’re still doing subscriptions: https://developers.openai.com/codex/pricing
Edit: Looks like it still works with subs, they just measure usage per token instead of per message.
Codex shines really well at what I call "hard problems." You set thinking high, and you just let it throw raw power at the problem. Whereas, Claude Code is better at your average day-to-day "write me code" tasks.
So the difference is kind of nuanced. You kind of need to use both a while to get a real sense of it.
Before a Subscription was the cheapest way to gain Codex usage, but now they've essentially having API and Subscription pricing match (e.g. $200 sub = $200 in API Codex usage).
The only value of a subscription now is that you get the web version of ChatGPT "free." In terms of raw Codex usage, you could just as easily buy API usage.
I don't think it's made out like that, I'm on the ChatGPT Pro plan for personal usage, and for a client I'm using the OpenAI API, both almost only using GPT 5.4 xhigh, done pretty much 50/50 work on client/personal projects, and clients API usage is up to 400 USD right now after a week of work, and ChatGPT Pro limit has 61% left, resets tomorrow.
Still seems to me you'd get a heck more out of the subscription than API credits.
In the future, open models and cheaper inference could cover the loss-leading strategies we see today.
But as it stands, the more likely reason is capacity crunch caused by a chips shortage and demand heavily outpacing supply. You vibe coding reason is based on as much vibes as their code probably is.
I doubt even the core engineers know how to begin debugging that spaghetti code.
CC is a better implementation and seems to be fairly economic with token usage. That is the really the only defining point and, I suspect, Anthropic are going to have a lot of trouble staying relevant with all the product issues.
They were far ahead for a brief period in November/December which is driving the hype cycle that now appears to be collapsing the company.
You have to test at least every month, things are moving quickly. Stepfun is releasing soon and seems to have an Opus-level model with more efficient architecture.
One example is I have a multi-stage distillation/knowledge extraction script for taking a Discord channel and answering questions. I have a hardcoded 5k message test set where I set up 20 questions myself based on analyzing it.
In my harness Minimax wasn't even getting half of them right, whereas Sonnet was 100%. Granted this isn't code, but my usage on pi felt about the same.
What are you using to drive the Chinese models in order to evaluate this? OpenCode?
Some of Claude Code's features, like remote sessions, are far more important than the underlying model for my productivity.
I keep coming back to it because I can run it as a manager for the smaller tasks.
The rest of the organisation, which is not software development or IT related, mainly uses GPT models. I just wish I hadn't taught risk management about claude code so they weren't wasting MY tokens.
Obviously in hindsight it would be unfair to Anthropic to judge them on an unstable day so I'l leave those complaints aside but I hit the session limit way too fast. I planned out 3 tasks and it couldn't finish the first plan completely, for that implementation task it has seen a grand total of 1 build log and hasn't even run any tests which already caused it to enter in the red territory of the context circle.
It was even asking me during planning which endpoints the new feature should use to hook into the existing system, codex would never ask this and just simply look these up during planning and whenever it encounters ambiguity it would either ask straight away or put it as an open question. I have to wonder if they're limiting this behavior due trying to keep the context as small as possible and preventing even earlier session limits.
Maybe codex's limits are not sustainable in the long run and I'm very spoiled by the limits but at this point CC(sonnet) and Codex(5.4) are simply not in the same league when comparing both 20 dollar subscriptions.
I will also clearly state that the value both these tools provide at these price points are absolutely worth it, it's just that codex's value/money ratio is much better.
Is Microsoft (one of the largest companies in the world) really a victim of brand death?
Unless they meant "all code that needs to be written has already been written" so their mission is to prevent any new code from being written via a kind of a bait and switch?
Free and local.
Not worth the money now, will be canceling unless fixed soon.
It’s great to buy dollars for a penny, but the guy selling em is going to want to charge a dollar eventually…
I'm not sure how businesses budget for llm APIs, as they seem wildly unpredictable to me and super expensive, but maybe I'm missing something about it.
It works out even if some customers are able to eat a lot, because people on average have a certain limit. The limits of computers are much higher.
If an hour of an excellent developer's time is worth $X, isn't that the upper bound of what the AI companies can charge? If hiring a person is better value than paying for an AI, then do that.
They can charge whatever they want, I think many people like to make business decisions based on relative predictability or at least be more aware that there's a risk. If they want it to be "some weeks you have lots of usage, some weeks less, and it depends on X factors, or even random factors" then people could make a more informed choice. I think now it's basically incredibly vague and that works while it's relatively predictable, and starts to fail when it's not, for those that wanted the implied predictability.
Now we’re going to find out what these tools are really worth.
Do you feel there is enough visibility and stability around the "Prompt -> API token usage" connection to make a reliable estimate as to what using the API may end up costing?
Personally, it feels like paying for Netflix based on "data usage" without having anyway for me to know ahead of time how much data any given episode or movie will end up using, because Netflix is constantly changing the quality/compression/etc on the fly.
I agree that ex ante it’s tough, and they could benefit from some mode of estimation.
Perhaps we can give tasks sizes, like T shirts? Or a group of claudes can spend the first 1M tokens assigning point values to the prospective tasks?
Take the response on another post about Claude Code.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47664442
This reads like even if you had a rough idea today about what usage might look like, a change deployed tomorrow could have a major impact on usage. And you wouldn't know it until after you were already using it.
I have no idea how people are hitting the limits so fast.
Hit the weekly limit on my 20x plan last week trying to do a full front end rewrite of a giant enterprise web app, 600+ html templates, plus validating every single one with playwright.
Is this a symptom of the same phenomenon behind the deluge of disposable JavaScript frameworks of just ten years ago? Is it peer pressure, fear of missing out? At its root, I suspect so; of course I would imagine it's rare for the C-suite to have ever mandated the usage of a specific language or framework, and LLMs represent an unprecedented lever of power to have an even bigger shot at first mover's advantage, from a business perspective. (Yes, I am aware of how "good enough" local models have become for many.)
I don't really have anything useful nor actionable to say here regarding this dialling back of capability to deal with capacity issues. Are there any indications of shops or individual contributors with contingency plans on the table for dialling back LLM usage in kind to mitigate these unknowns? I know the calculus is such that potential (and frequently realised) gains heavily outweigh the risks of going all in, but, in the grander scheme of time and circumstance, long term commitments are starting to be more apparently risky. I am purposefully trying to avoid "begging the question" here; if instead of LLMs, this were some other tool or service, reactions to these events would have been far more pragmatic, with less of a reticence to invest time on in-house solutions when dealing with flaky vendors.
It seems like every LLM thread for the past couple years is full of posts saying that the latest hot AI tool/approach has made them unbelievably more productive, followed by others saying they found that same thing underwhelming.
I don't think many of you have legitimately tried Claude Code, or maybe you're holding it wrong.
I'm getting 10x the work done. I'm operating at all layers of the stack with a speed and rapidity I've never had before.
And before anyone accuses me of being some "vibe coder", I've built five nines active-active money rails that move billions of dollars a day at 50kqps+, amongst lots of other hard hitting platform engineering work. Serious senior engineering for over a decade.
This isn't just a "cool technology". We've exited the punch card phase. And that is hard or impossible to come back from.
If you're not seeing these same successes, I legitimately think you're using it wrong.
I honestly don't like subscription services, hyperscaler concentration of power, or the fact I can't run Opus locally. But it doesn't matter - the tool exists in the shape it does, and I have to consume it in the way that it's presented. I hope for a different offering that is more democratic and open, but right now the market hasn't provided that.
It's as if you got access to fiber or broadband and were asked to go back to ISDN/dial up.
I'm just curious, why do you "have to"? Don't get me wrong, I'm making the same choice myself too, realizing a bunch of global drawbacks because of my local/personal preference, but I won't claim I have to, it's a choice I'm making because I'm lazy.
I'm given a tool that lets me 10x "provide value".
My personal preferences and tastes literally do not matter.
I could pay API prices for the same models, but aside from paying much more for the same result that doesn't seem helpful
I could pay a 4-5 figure sum for hardware to run a far inferior open model
I could pay a six figure sum for hardware to run an open model that's only a couple months behind in capability (or a 4-5 figure sum to run the same model at a snail's pace)
I could pay API costs to semi-trustworthy inference provider to run one of those open models
None of those seem like great alternatives. If I want cutting-edge coding performance then a subscription is the most reasonable option
Note that this applies mostly to coding. For many other tasks local models or paid inference on open models is very reasonable. But for coding that last bit of performance matters
Yet
The challenge now is how to plan architectures and codebases to get really big and really scale, without AI slop creating hidden tech debt.
Foundations of the code must be very solid, and the architecture from the start has to be right. But even redoing the architecture becomes so much faster now...
I struggle to believe that a ton of seemingly intelligent software engineers are too dumb to figure out how to use Claude code to get reliable results, it seems much more likely to me that it can do well at isolated tasks or new projects but fails when pointed at large complex code bases because it just... is a token predictor lol.
But yeah spinning up a green fields project in an extensively solved area (ledgers) is going to be something an AI shines at.
It isn't like we don't use this stuff also, I ask Cursor to do things 20x a day and it does something I don't like 50% of the time. Even things like pasting an error message it struggles with. How do I reconcile my actual daily experience with hype messages I see online?
So it's not that they're too stupid. There are various motivations for this: clinging on to familiarity, resistance to what feels like yet another tool, anti-AI koolaid, earnestly underwhelmed but don't understand how much better it can be, reacting to what they perceive to be incessant cheerleading, etc.
It's kind of like anti-Javascript posts on HN 10+ years ago. These people weren't too stupid to understand how you could steelman Node.js, they just weren't curious enough to ask, and maybe it turned out they hadn't even used Javascript since "DHTML" was a term except to do $(".box").toggle().
I wish there were more curiosity on HN.
Hypothetically, you have a simple slice out of bounds error because a function is getting an empty string so it does something like: `""[5]`.
Opus will add a bunch of length & nil checks to "fix" this, but the actual issue is the string should never be empty. The nil checks are just papering over a deeper issue, like you probably need a schema level check for minimum string length.
At that point do you just tell it like "no delete all that, the string should never be empty" and let it figure that out, or do I basically need to pseudo code "add a check for empty strings to this file on line 145", or do I just YOLO and know the issue is gone now so it is no longer my problem?
My bigger point is how does an LLM know that this seemingly small problem is indicative of some larger failure, like lets say this string is a `user.username` which means users can set their name to empty which means an entire migration is probably necessary. All the AI is going to do is smoosh the error messages and kick the can.
Seemingly is doing the heavy lifting here. If you read enough comment threads on HN, it will become obvious why they aren’t getting results.
Many software devs work in teams on large projects where LLMs have a more nuanced value. I myself mostly work on a large project inside a large organization. Spitting out lines of code is practically never a bottleneck for me. Running a suite of agents to generate out a ton of code for my coworkers to review doesn't really solve a problem that I have. I still use Claude in other ways and find it useful, but I'm certainly not 10x more productive with it.
I just don’t see how I could export 10x the work and have it properly validated by peers at this point in time. I may be able to generate code 10-20x faster, but there are nuances that only a human can reason about in my particular sector.
You sound like a pro wrestler. I'd like to know what "hard-hitting" engineering work is. Hydraulic hammers?
It's also like.... difficult to honestly and accurately measure. And account for whether or not you're getting lucky based on your underlying dependencies (servers, etc) not crashing as much as advertised, or if it's actually five nines. Or whether you've run it for a month and gotten <30s of measure downtime and declared victory, vs run it for three years with copious software updates.
After I solved entrepreneurship I decided to retire and I now spend my days reading HN, posting on topics about AI.
Need some help selling these notepad apps, do you have a prompt for that?
As an example, a long term goal at the employer I work for is exactly this: run LLMs locally. There's a big infrastructure backlog through, so it's waiting on those things, and hopefully we'll see good local models by then that can do what Claude Sonnet or GPT-5.3-Codex can do today.
We're paying for servers that sit idle at night, you don't find enough sysadmins for the current problems, the open source models aren't as strong as closed source, providing context (as in googling) means you hook everything up to the internet anyway, where do you find the power and the cooling systems and the space, what do you do with the GPUs after 3 years?
Suddenly that $500/month/user seems like a steal.
What I don’t understand, are the people who let it go over night or with whole “agent teams” working on software. I have no idea how they trust any of it.
Why does it sound like you're on drugs? I know that sounds extremely rude, but I can't think of any other reasonable comparison for that language.
It's hard to take these kinds of endorsements seriously when they're written so hyperbolically, in terms of the same cliches, and focused on entirely on how it makes you feel rather than what it does.
This has basically been what all of Silicon Valley sounds like to me for a few years now.
They are known for abusing many psycho-stimulants out there. The stupid “manifesto” Marc Andreessen put out a while back sounded like adderall-produced drivel more than a coherent political manifesto.
This is similar to how we have already found hacks in our evolutionary programming to directly deliver high amounts of flavor without nutrition, and we've been working on ever more complex means of delivering social stimulation without the need for other human (one of the key appeals of AI for many people, as well).
Of course these are all the ravings of a crank and should be ignored.
People claim that DoorDash and other similar apps are about efficiency, but I suspect a large portion is also a desire to remove human interaction. LLMs are the same. Or, in actuality, to create a simulacrum of human interaction that is satisfying enough.
Imagine being an Uber driver and suddenly have to switch to a rickshaw for several hours.
Code is notation, just like music sheets, or food recipes. If your interaction with anyone else is with the end result only (the software), the. The code does not matter. But for collaboration, it does. When it’s badly written, that just increase everyone burden.
It’s like forcing everyone to learn a symphony with the record instead of the sheets. And often a badly recorded version.
Do you think that is impossible? There are plenty of people who enjoy composing music on things like trackers, with no intent of ever playing said music on an instrument.
I love coding, but I also like making things, and the two are in conflict: When I write code for the sake of writing code, I am meticulous and look for perfection. When I make things, I want to move as fast as possible, because it is the end-product that matters.
There is also a hidden presumption in what you've written that 1) the code will be badly written. Sometimes it is, but that is the case for people to, but often it is better than what I would produce (say, when needing to produce something in a language I'm not familiar enough with), 2) and that the collaboration will be with people manually working on the code. That is increasingly often not true.
Isn't this almost certainly against ToS, at least if you're using "plans" (as opposed to paying per-token)?
It would be cool to run SOTA models on my own hardware but I can't. Hence, the subscription.
Lately though the RAM crisis is continuing and making things like this more unfeasible. But you can still use a lot of smaller models for coding and testing tasks.
Planning tasks I'd use a cloud hosted one, for now, because gemma4 isn't there yet and because the GPU prices are still quite insane.
The cool and fun part is that with ollama and vllm you can just build your own agentic environment IDE, give it the tools you like, and make the workflow however you like. And it isn't even that hard to do, it just needs a lot of tweaking and prompt fiddling.
And on top of that: Use kiwix to selfhost Wikipedia, stackoverflow and devdocs. Give the LLM a tool to use the search and read the pages, and your productivity is skyrocketing pretty quickly. No need anymore to have internet, and a cheap Intel NUC is good enough for self-hosting a lot of containers already.
Source: I am building my own offline agentic environment for Golang [1] which is pretty experimental but sometimes it's also working.
Maybe in 5 years we'll have an open weights model that is in the "good enough" category that I can run on a RTX 9000 for 15k dollars or whatever.
It's why we pay stupid amounts for takeout when it's a button away, it's why we accept the issues that come with online dating rather than breaking the ice outside, it's why there's been decades scams that claim to get you abs without effort...
LLMs are the ultimate friction removal. They can remove gaps or mechanical work that regular programming can, but more importantly they can think for you.
I'm convinced this human pattern is as dangerous as addiction. But it's so much harder to fight against, because who's going to be in favor of doing things with more effort rather than less? The whole point of capitalism is supposed to be that it rewards efficiency.
At my workplace we have been sticking with older versions, and now stick to the stable release channel.
I’ve been toying around at home with it and I’ve been fine with its output mostly (in a Java project ofc), but I’ve run into a few consistent problems
- The thing always trips up validating its work. It consistently tries to use powershell in a WSL environment I don’t have it installed in. It also seems to struggle with relative/absolute paths when running commands.
- Pricing makes no sense to me, but Jetbrains offering seems to have its own layer of abstraction in “credits” that just seem so opaque.
Then again, I mostly use this stuff for implementing tedious utilities/features. I’m not doing entity agent written and still do a lot of hand tweaks to code, because it’s still faster to just do it myself sometimes. Mostly all from all from the IDE still.
We'll see AI chat replace Google, we'll see companies adopting AI in high-value areas, and we'll see local models like Gemma 4 get used heavily.
AI winter will see a disappearance of the clickbait headlines about everyone losing their jobs. Literally nobody is making those statements taking into account that pricing to this point is way less than the profit maximizing level.
Maybe you should consider....local models instead?
There was constant drama with CC. Degradation, low reliability, harness conspiring against you, and etc – these things are not new. Its burgeoning popularity has only made it worse. Anthropic is always doing something to shoot themselves in the foot.
The harness does cool things, don't get me wrong. But it comes with a ton of papercuts that don't belong in a professional product.
1. Me not wanting that for context management reasons
2. It burning tokens on an expensive model.
Literally a conversation that I just had:
* ME: "Have sonnet background agent do X"
* Opus: "Agent failed, I'll do it myself"
* Me: "No, have a background agent do it"
* Opus: Proceeds to do it in the foreground
* Flips keyboard
This has completely broken my workflows. I'm stuck waiting for Opus to monitor a basic task and destroy my context.
nurettin•1h ago