Most people who follow prediction markets watch prices. Most people who follow Congress watch committee hearings. Almost nobody watches both at the same time.
We built a system that does. The SimpleFunctions Legislation Tracker cross-references every active bill in the 119th Congress against prediction market contracts on Kalshi. Right now it tracks 120 bill-market pairs and 23 Senate confirmation markets — 143 total.
The data tells you things that neither source tells you alone.
What the Cross-Reference Reveals
Take the SAVE Act (H.R. 22). It passed the House, got received by the Senate, and Kalshi has a contract on it at 11¢ — implying an 11% probability of becoming law before January 2027. The annualized yield on a Yes position is 1,114%. The market is saying: this bill is almost certainly dead, but the tiny chance it passes is priced cheaply enough that someone is willing to hold it.
Or look at the SNAP restriction market (KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04). The bill was referred to two committees, which in congressional procedure usually means slow death. The market agrees: 14¢, or 14% implied probability. But the IY is 846% — because the resolution date is close enough that even a small probability shift produces an enormous annualized return.
The Trump airport renaming bill (KXBILLS-AIRP) sits at 10¢ with an IY of 1,253%. It was referred to a subcommittee and hasn't moved. The market has correctly priced it as a symbolic gesture with almost zero chance of passage.
patrickliu0077•3h ago
We built a system that does. The SimpleFunctions Legislation Tracker cross-references every active bill in the 119th Congress against prediction market contracts on Kalshi. Right now it tracks 120 bill-market pairs and 23 Senate confirmation markets — 143 total.
The data tells you things that neither source tells you alone.
What the Cross-Reference Reveals Take the SAVE Act (H.R. 22). It passed the House, got received by the Senate, and Kalshi has a contract on it at 11¢ — implying an 11% probability of becoming law before January 2027. The annualized yield on a Yes position is 1,114%. The market is saying: this bill is almost certainly dead, but the tiny chance it passes is priced cheaply enough that someone is willing to hold it.
Or look at the SNAP restriction market (KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04). The bill was referred to two committees, which in congressional procedure usually means slow death. The market agrees: 14¢, or 14% implied probability. But the IY is 846% — because the resolution date is close enough that even a small probability shift produces an enormous annualized return.
The Trump airport renaming bill (KXBILLS-AIRP) sits at 10¢ with an IY of 1,253%. It was referred to a subcommittee and hasn't moved. The market has correctly priced it as a symbolic gesture with almost zero chance of passage.