price has doubled since his little "excursion" (a three hour tour?)

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28554873/embed

The only good thing is that it hurts americans too. Alone the fertilizer is a huge cost increase.

Its not just jet fuel.

But the export/import will also be hit, all these special high tech products from and to europe

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news...

Fortunately the Trump Ally in Europe that was buying much of that energy just got kicked out, so, er, now all we have to do is… er… my head hurts.

If they are that limited, I am shocked they are not curtailing use immediately. The time to start rationing was when this mess began.

Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb...

Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.

Losing that much oil hurts. But it's entirely in the realm of what market forces can deal with. As storages empty prices rise, which lowers demand. There's already reports of multiple airlines suspending some of their flights because they aren't economically viable right now

"The disruption is caused by extraordinary surge in oil prices followed by unpredictable fuel supply shortage constraints across the aviation industry outside our control. As a result, we are unable to operate this route in a responsible and sustainable manner."

The EU is by its construction a trade harmonization organization, it's not built for acting quickly and dealing with crises.

An airline can only schedule flights if fuel is guaranteed to be available at both ends. If they fly their plane to a part of the world experiencing severe shortages, the plane may become stranded there because there isn't fuel to fly it back.

Even 6 month type stockpiles usually take special regular maintenance procedures.

Rationing causes serious problems. A warning in advance gives people and powers time to turn things around before rationing becomes necessary.

"International obligations

As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States must stock an amount of petroleum equivalent to at least 90 days of U.S. imports. The SPR contained an equivalent to 141 days of imports as of September 2016. The United States is also obligated to contribute 43.9% of petroleum in any IEA-coordinated release."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(U...

For jet fuel? The article does not say, but if they are correct in predicting shortages in six weeks, then the stockpile (if any) is not terribly large.

> Isn't the entire US national strategic oil reserve only enough for like 1 month of US usage?

In any case, whatever it is, crude oil is not yet jet fuel. The crude has to be refined to output jet fuel (and other oil byproducts), and some amount of gulf refinery capacity is also offline due to one or both of damage or inability to export via sea through the strait.

That "6 weeks" probably reflects oil that is already in the refinery supply chain and is therefore deliverable over the next several weeks. The issue is that the top of that funnel is not being refilled.

The US is an exporter of jet fuel but places like Europe and Asia or more exposed to bubbles in the supply chain.

Right now it seems like we've entered a detente where (1) Iran controls the strait and allows oil to flow with tolls and (2) the US lies about it and pretends (for domestic consumption) like it's interdicted all tolled commerce.

I didn't time it exactly, but the last time I was able to observe it happening it was about half a minute for me.