We're talking about the period before modern finance, before income taxes, back when most labor was agricultural... Did the average person shoulder the cost of railroads more than the average taxpayer today is shouldering the cost of F-35? (That's another line in Paul's post.)

I am not an ai-booster, but I would not be surprised at AI having a similar enabling effect over the long term. My caveat being that I am not sure the massive data center race going on right now will be what makes it happen.

There’s a loop of everyone is saying stuff because everyone else is saying stuff that turns into a sort of reality inspired fan fiction.

It’s not just that it’s wrong or imprecise, that I expect, it’s that the folklore takes on a life of its own.

We aren't even getting infrastructure out of it, they are just powering it with gas turbines..

I would love to hear about the economic value being generated by these LLMs. I think a couple years is enough time for us to start putting some actual numbers to the value provided.

We seeing exactly the same thing with AI, as there is massive investment creating a bubble without a payoff. We know that the value will lower over time due to how software and hardware both gets more efficient and cheaper. And so far there's no evidence that all this investment has generated more profit for the users of AI. It's just a matter of time until people realize and the bubble bursts.

And when the bubble does burst, the problem is, what's going to happen? Most of the investment is from private capital, not banks. We don't know where all that private capital is coming from, so we don't know what the externalities will be when it bursts. (As just one possibility: if it takes out the balance sheets of hyperscalers and tech unicorns, and they collapse, who's standing on top of them that collapses next? About half the S&P 500, but also every business built on top of those mega-corps)