I don't understand why he thinks OpenAI can't be one of the duopolies or become the monopoly. OpenAI's models are always the first or second best overall - usually the first. They are also leading in the consumer market by a wide margin. They also made a strategic decision that is paying off which was committing to more compute early on while Anthropic is hammered by the lack of compute.
PS. They've raised ~$200b total, not $1 trillion.
Claude is kicking ass in the niche of coding and processes.
1 trillion is a lot of money for something that's not differentiated and protected in a massive market.
Does it look like OpenAI has that in place?
Cuban thinks they don't, and won't.
Claude is kicking ass in coding but it seems like Codex is catching up fast. Claude Code's PR has taken a hit recently due to the lack of compute forcing Anthropic to dumb down the models. Codex has been gaining momentum.
Chip manufacturing aren't really differentiated either - it didn't stop TSMC from becoming the monopoly for high end chip nodes, capturing 90%+ of the advanced chip market. The reason they have is because Rock's Law makes it too expensive to build the next node unless you've generated enough revenue from the current node. I don't see why it isn't the same for SOTA models.
I'm constantly amazed how this AGI/monopoly narrative can be kept up so long in the West, it just doesn't make sense (unless the state creates said monopoly by forbidding competition).
In other comments people mention the "flywheel" of data and money feeding training, but there's a view that at some point the baseline open-weight models are "good enough" that the money will dry up.
I could see people saying this in 2022, but now? No chance.
Chinese models keep demonstrating that SOTA can be approximated for a fraction of the cost. The innovation out of these companies keep showing diminishing returns, with a greater emphasis on the tooling and application layer. Having the right workflow with the right data is more important than having the right model. We could freeze AI now, and I'd bet good money that the current state of things is good enough to - not be first - but competitive for the next few years.
Even if we do end up with a oligopoly situaiton, it'll be less like Microsoft in the 90s and more like Microsoft now where they just give out windows for free, have support for WSL and the focus is on cloud services rather than their OS.
We know LLM companies have, for lack of a better word, "sidestepped" the copyright on millions of works with their "transformative fair use" arguments. Are LLMs also a way to sidestep patents?
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