Among Trumpistan, Israel and Iran there is no good guy in this war.
The whole conspiracy around the downed airman https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/a-ruse-to-snatch-urani... only adds to it.
1. Drones are a relatively recent evolution but are really a continuation of asymmetric warfare that has been wildly successful post-1945. The US has been woefully unprepared for cheap, mass-produced drones that, as evidenced by these satellite images, are equivalent to high-precision missiles in terms of effectiveness but are substantially cheaper;
2. Censoring these images serves no military purpose. Iran, China and Russia (among others) have access to accurate satellite imagery so censoring these images really just belies a fear of public opinion. Any cost estimates of this war given by the administration (which tend to be $1-2B/day) don't seem to include repairing and replacing lost weapons, radars, facilities, aircraft and other base infrastructure. That's going to be billions more;
3. It seems clear that this war so ill-considered and the US was so unprepared that (IMHO) will go down as the biggest strategic blunder in US history as the US military and Gulf security guarantees have shown to be a paper tiger and there is no military out of this conflict short of the use of nuclear weapons;
4. Despite claims to the contrary, the US does not appear to have air superiority over Iran. The evidence for this is the continued use of missiles and other so-called "stand off" weapons (ie fired at range to avoid SAMs and anti-aircraft batteries);
5. Despite administration claims to the contrary, there are now desperate shortages of munitions for missile defences, Tomahawk missiles and various other missiles. Some of these had already been dseriously depleted in the 12 day War. This has made things substantially worse and it will likely take years to replenish supplies;
6. The future of Gulf bases and secruity guarantees is now unclear given it's now been demonstrated that the US can't protect them; and
7. I'm not sure the UAE (and Duabi in particular) ever recovers from this. The image that Dubai is some stable center for business and finance in the MIddle East has been shattered. Will the wealthy come back knowing the US can't protect Dubai? I honestly don't know. Dubai is a "wretched hive of scum and villainy" (to quote Star Wars). It's key in Iran evading sanctions, Russia evading sanctions and instrumental in the South Sudan genocide (ie there's a trade between UAE arms from the US and stolen South Sudanese gold from the RSF). The UAE has left OPEC. I honestly don't know if this will be a good or bad decision long-term.
There are 3 players in this war and they all have very different goals. Israel wants to wreck Iran. The US wants out. Iran simply needs to survive. I'm not sure where we go from here. To back down, the US would need to split with Israel and that's a pill likely too difficult to swallow given that Israel is the only reason we're in this war at all.
Looming over all this is the upcoming summit between the US and China, currently set for next week. It's already been delayed once because of this war. Having this situation unresolved is going to greatly weaken the American negotiating position. The US may well want to delay it again. If so, (IMHO) China may well cancel it entirely.
WorkerBee28474•50m ago
AnimalMuppet•47m ago
iugtmkbdfil834•42m ago
But none of it is a surprise, is it? Iran was on the list for a while now and last time I mentioned it on this forum, I was laughed, because "it didn't happen yet" either missing the concerted effort to make it happen or being part of the deflection campaign.
dangus•20m ago
It is supreme irony for the people who have been howling about “draining the swamp” of “the deep state” to immediately bend over to the wishes of the actual deep state to attack Iran. Previous administrations resisted the pressure from those voices since it is so strategically moronic.
Pizzagate? Projection. Obviously.
Election fraud, rigged elections, stop the steal? Projection.
“Obama made gas expensive?” Projection.
The left is fiscally responsible and will balloon the budget deficit? Projection.
I am so sick of this whole situation and it’s tragic that real people are dying over such senseless incompetence.
dylan604•33m ago
acdha•45m ago
resters•5m ago
That is a clear abuse of power, which like most of the abuses revealed by Wikileaks, Snowden, etc., get solid bipartisan support.
muteh•41m ago
dylan604•41m ago
snickerbockers•16m ago
magicalhippo•11m ago
So they could probably just check themselves how it was going, unless they wanted rapid feedback I suppose.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-used-chinese-spy-sa...
[2]: https://thedefensewatch.com/product/tee-01b-earth-observatio...
hirvi74•7m ago
globalnode•37m ago
Thaxll•35m ago
Waterluvian•22m ago
The full truth of the situation going public is probably one of few ways to pull back on this unchecked government behaviour, given Congress seems all but dead.
sgnelson•12m ago
Sure, "this is fine."