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Ask HN: How to live life before AGI

3•atleastoptimal•52m ago
I feel like it's pointless to worry about the future if the future is highly speculative, but it seems more and more certain that AI will eclipse humans in every domain outright soonish (1-3 years).

As a consequence, it seems pointless to work at a job. The local optima are either hedonism-maxxing or capital-maxxing, any middle ground seems like a foolish enterprise when all that effort over marginal returns won't matter soon.

NOTE: If you disagree with this premise, please provide actual evidence that the trends in improvement in AI models will not continue, and will peak at Mythos level somehow. Do not just assume that things will remain the same despite that not having been the case for the last few years.

Comments

bigyabai•45m ago
> As a consequence, it seems pointless to work at a job.

You mean a programming job? Or all jobs?

People working as house painters, plumbers, farmers, chefs, engineers, architects, cops, soldiers, nurses and doctors aren't going to be irrelevant in 3 years, let alone 30. I think you're projecting your experience on the rest of the world, most of whom will be unaffected by LLMs in the short-term future.

atleastoptimal•41m ago
I think most white collar jobs will fall at the rate that programming jobs do.

Regarding all those jobs that require working in the real world, I do imagine there will be a bit of a hold-out, though robotics could come in and cause the same phenomenon.

Bender•37m ago
I agree with Mo [1] and doubt AGI will ever be a real thing. Unlike Mr. Deutsch I also believe animals are alive and can think. My cat is thinking right now.

There will be plumber robots though. They will break pipes and flood houses for a few iterations. Move fast and break the pipes. That might be a fun poll, how many here would allow a first generation plumber robot in their home and what might you hide from its view?

[Edit] Added a poll [2]

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VucjurQUHO8 [video][6 mins][language]

[2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48302523

__d•14m ago
The concept of a "job" can encompass many things. Some of those change when machines become more capable, some don't.

For example, one part of a job is the satisfaction, the purpose, the meaning of life derived from being useful. Not having that can be pretty bad for people. So, even if the machines take over a lot of what is done by people today, you'll probably want to find a way of being useful.

Hedonism and wealth are both remarkably bad at delivering the same contentment that being useful does. That said, of course, a bit of hedonism and capital is also good.

JohnFen•8m ago
AGI is exceedingly unlikely to happen, so your worry is better spent on other things.

> If you disagree with this premise, please provide actual evidence

That's not the way that works. You're the one making the positive claim, it's on you to provide evidence to support your claim.

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Ask HN: How to live life before AGI

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