So, over-simplified, Oracle has agreed to build 7GW of data centres (costing about 300bn) in order to sell them to OpenAI who will pay 300bn over 5yrs.

But if they don’t build the DC they don’t get cash, and if something something AI bubble then openAI cannot pay and so S&P500 just marked them down as one rung above junk (if they hit junk huge numbers of portfolios have to drop them etc etc)

So basically it’s not likely but not impossible the Oracle can collapse under the weight of capex costs for DCs that don’t get revenue

Ok - so not a likely scenario. But let’s go with the hypothetical. And suddenly what happens to the crown jewel the Oracle Database? Of course there would be something something special vehicle, but the software industry is fairly new - I don’t think we have had a major piece of software at the heart of every single enterprise just vanish (lots that got replaced but not just collapse?)

And will that mean people say “quick move to SQL Server? Or will they say “how do we fund Postgres over the next 20 years?”

If Oracle can vanish (and not saying it will) how do governments and companies protect these basic utility services ? What happens if Apple stops offering updates in country X or Y?

I’m just wondering how we get a grip on the strategic risks? OSS looks nice but the long term issues look rough

Just ranting - any thoughts?