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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/what-really-happening-jobs-separating-ai-hype-reality
13•pod_krad•1h ago

Comments

simonw•13m ago
A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break.

General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that.

This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using from 2022-2025.

Studies that mainly focus on 2022 to end of 2025 might be missing out on a material uptick in capabilities.

Seattle3503•9m ago
It does feel like we are in a transition period, and its not clear what conclusions we can draw about any sort of "steady state" yet.
AbsurdCensor•8m ago
This isn’t the first study showing this though. It’s pretty simple, programmers and IT were severely overhired during the pandemic, there are massive job losses now, and it’s easy to blame AI when in reality there are a lot of economic factors and AI isn’t increasing productivity as much as anyone would think.

Maybe the future will change that for very specific things, but I think people should be learning and preparing for that, which isn’t any different than what everyone has been told in every job market since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

raincole•8m ago
Any research on the impact of AI would have been lagging indicators. It's not the researchers' fault[0], but the nature of a field moving at neck breaking speed. Remember there was a paper saying programmers were 20% slower with AI?

[0]: well...

fathermarz•8m ago
Recently poked around the job market to see what I qualify for in this day and age. Working as a solo builder in my org I would say that I have done enough in the last 18 months to consider myself “with it”.

What I found was pretty brutal. Companies asking for 4 years of agentic AI experience… pardon?

Then it hit me.

Oh they are all making shit up now and have no bar that anyone can hit because they are believing in the hype without understanding the fundamentals.

GREAT. Even as I climb the AI-Native ranks, I apparently am unqualified for any AI-Native job.

bloaf•6m ago
Organizational inertia is a real thing. There are still fortune 500 companies with internal bans on AI. A lot of the answer to "how much impact has AI had" comes down to "how much have we even attempted?"

In my workplace, we're going to decline to renew some software subscriptions because a non-programmer vibe-coded their replacement in a week.

The impacts are here, they're just not evenly distributed yet.

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