This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".
Their track record is not great, and I don't think they fully realise that the issue is them: the principles and axioms they rely on don't lead to good results.
> I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America.
Perhaps start by reversing your positions, and throwing support behind those trying to undo the damage you caused.
The author still thinks they were "freeing prediction markets from unnecessary restrictions", but clearly some restrictions are necessary, and totally free markets aren't actually an economic panacea. This is not really new information, so the flaw is in the thinker, not the data.
If your ideas are consistently proved harmful, acting against your instincts is a better play than continuing to trust them.
As far as I can tell, prediction markets went from totally illegal to basically unregulated. Presumably the author was arguing for a middle ground.
> I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America. But I know we never even had a grown-up debate.
If you've seen the destruction caused by something and can't figure it out, maybe you have a problem?
And let's be honest: the idea of "debating" things that are obvious is often one of the primary ways by which indefensible things are legitimized.
He is already so beyond the pale this doesnt even move the needle.
The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.
ggm•54m ago
avaer•11m ago
Your advice might work in a different world.