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I Championed Prediction Markets. Look What They've Become

https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/i-championed-prediction-markets-look
8•NomNew•58m ago

Comments

ggm•54m ago
Put the same energy into championing regulation then. Don't walk away from a mess you claim to have helped create. (which the OP may indeed be doing, but it isn't clear they are, hence the chiding)
avaer•11m ago
The people regulating this are the people profiting from it. Championing change isn't too different from prostrating in front of the King.

Your advice might work in a different world.

jdw64•19m ago
People always assume that others will use something with good intentions, but in practice, malice tends to take root before goodwill does.
avaer•9m ago
Not so much malice as greed and lack of empathy.
jameskilton•9m ago
And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else.

This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

Planktonne•16m ago
The author was instrumental in a colleague ruining their life through a gambling addiction. Then they helped make the case for prediction markets, which also went wrong.

Their track record is not great, and I don't think they fully realise that the issue is them: the principles and axioms they rely on don't lead to good results.

> I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America.

Perhaps start by reversing your positions, and throwing support behind those trying to undo the damage you caused.

Retr0id•14m ago
Finally a solution to being wrong - just invert all your opinions!
Planktonne•9m ago
If you're consistently wrong, then it's time to stop being a thought leader, and really examine the lens through which you view the world.

The author still thinks they were "freeing prediction markets from unnecessary restrictions", but clearly some restrictions are necessary, and totally free markets aren't actually an economic panacea. This is not really new information, so the flaw is in the thinker, not the data.

If your ideas are consistently proved harmful, acting against your instincts is a better play than continuing to trust them.

fwipsy•2m ago
You're mischaracterizing. He said that he helped build a case for it -- not that he still supports it.

As far as I can tell, prediction markets went from totally illegal to basically unregulated. Presumably the author was arguing for a middle ground.

fwipsy•5m ago
ElProlactin•5m ago
> And I know exactly what that costs: Before I was an economist, I was a teenager working for bookies on Australian racetracks. I once took five dollars from a coworker who “didn’t bet” and put it on number one in the next race. Six months later he was betting thousands a race and stealing from his own family. Compulsive gambling destroys lives — and the families it wrecks have no lobbyists.

> I don’t claim to know the exact right policy answer for America. But I know we never even had a grown-up debate.

If you've seen the destruction caused by something and can't figure it out, maybe you have a problem?

And let's be honest: the idea of "debating" things that are obvious is often one of the primary ways by which indefensible things are legitimized.

Fizz43•5m ago
>Trump Media may soon sell early access to the president’s Truth Social posts. Think about what this means. This is how the president announces war; every embassy on earth has to maintain a Truth Social account just to stay informed of American policy.

He is already so beyond the pale this doesnt even move the needle.

Did you watch the podcast? I didn't, but I think it's unfair to judge the author's true position on prediction markets based on their podcast hook.

The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.

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