After reading these articles go by so often, it feels like what I actually can’t keep up with is the bond market. To paraphrase Trotsky, you may not be interested in the bond market, but the bond market is interested in you. I want to be able to read the signals at the bottom of this article, and divine some kind of prediction that can guide me… I don’t know, to choose whether I should buy a house or change the investment strategy in my retirement fund or something. But I’m just seeing all these signals go by, waiting for the story to be written, which only happens when the dust settles.

I guess I’ll go back to not understanding AI, instead of not understanding the bond market.

so everything is going according to plan, and nobody knows the future, and predicting collpses has never been a profitable business.

I didn't have to read past the first few confusing contorted and convoluted paragraps of this article to decide to come over here and explain it, this is all straightforward corporate finance 102 and the article is fluff

Until they didn't.

Revolutionary technology + massive adoption ≠ good investment

Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by the growth and glamour of the industry. The airline industry since its birth has had a collective net loss, in aggregate, despite moving hundreds of millions of people.

Commodity Product, no switching costs. Infinite competition

https://youtu.be/LxJW7hl8oqM?is=IjdyHwZchaiMHk4C