Soviet-China-Iran - Petro Yuan?
At some point china will loose the ability to keep its global currency (Yuan, should be inflating) decoupled from the domestic one (Renminbi is deflating). They have been keeping long running issues in Banking, and Relestate at bay but a global recession (and were on the cusp it seems) is going to be brutal to china.
I suspect that if (when?) that hits this will turn into another Deutsche scandal.
while Yuan usage in trade will reduce the US influence, the amount of assets held in dollar nominated investments is so so much bigger, and this will very slowly change if it will at all.
Pity about the USA....
More and more it feels like a nation's kWh throughput is the new metric to track its global influence in manufacturing, industry, and financial services. In other words real power now equates to global power.
The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years.
https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027
The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric. In some countries it's well over 50%. China of course being one of them. And they are making rapid progress with electrifying freight as well. This is already impacting their fossil fuel imports. They still import a lot.
One effect that I think people underestimate is that while it will take a long time for all the ICE vehicles to disappear, the new ones do most of the driving. So, new EVs have a relatively large impact on fuel consumption and imports pretty early on. E.g. Chinese diesel imports apparently already are being impacting by their rapid deployment of tens of thousands of electrical trucks. Soon hundreds of thousands. That's already a third of the market in China and will probably head for well over 50 in a few short years. The EU is not that far behind.
The ripple effect that's going to have on oil trading, refinery capacity, etc. is going to be substantial. Of course current geopolitics is speeding things up massively. LNG and oil scarcity is causing a lot of issues globally and countries are accelerating moves to reduce their dependence on that.
JimmyBuckets•47m ago
iugtmkbdfil834•40m ago
ForHackernews•39m ago
baxtr•35m ago
ForHackernews•33m ago
edgyquant•26m ago
myrmidon•9m ago
But its relative GDP growth has been higher than the US for decades, is higher stil and is probably going to stay higher for years:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?country=U...
tokai•14m ago
curuinor•32m ago
quickthrowman•16m ago
The USD hegemony isn’t because of oil, it’s because everyone wants dollar-denominated assets. Treasury bonds, US real estate, US equities, etc. Possibly Chinese exports could soak up some of the yuan demand?
ImHereToVote•11m ago
detourdog•36m ago
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/i...
nubg•9m ago
detourdog•3m ago
I switched the link to Harvard.
JimmyBuckets•13m ago
kachnuv_ocasek•37m ago
edgyquant•25m ago
kachnuv_ocasek•15m ago
victorbjorklund•4m ago