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U.S. in Highest-Risk Category for Civil War, Coup, or Collapse in CIA Model

https://cmarmitage.substack.com/p/scored-on-the-cias-instability-model
30•JumpCrisscross•57m ago

Comments

huijzer•18m ago
If the CIA could figure out how to stabilize a country that would be nice, but seems they know only how to destabilize countries when looking at their track record [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

well_ackshually•16m ago
Breaking news: after being the biggest threat to world stability, the US realizes that their behavior is also a threat to their own stability.
FrankWilhoit•15m ago
There are no blue states. There are only blue cities. If they wish to "secede", what that indicates is that they have not thought through how easy it is to block a road.
CuriouslyC•11m ago
By that logic, there are no red states, only red hinterlands.
mcmcmc•8m ago
[delayed]
cmrdporcupine•4m ago
This is also what I point out to my fellow Canadians who insist that Canada has political-economic "friends" in "blue states"; if you look at a map from the 2024 election even the "bluest" of states had walls of red and sometimes especially right next to the Canadian border. Western New York and Vermont both have counties right across the border that swung for Trump sometimes by margins as much at 15%.

There's no easy way out of this quagmire. A deep horrible somewhat tribal division has spread in North American society around a pile of issues and it's become pivoted around a supposed "left"-right axis but it's really about a whole pile of other issues and unresolveable grievances. Prosperity is declining in western countries, and distribution of wealth is becoming drastically unequal. And neither liberal or conservative ideological centres (the only two allowed in American politics) have any kind of solution.

The same infection is here in Canada as well, but less intense. As usual we're just 10 years behind whatever trend happens there.

maelito•14m ago
Yes, that's the impression from abroad, from Europe.
noir_lord•10m ago
The worrying thing for me as a citizen of a European country (though one not now in the EU) is that we appear to be on a similar path though perhaps a little further back on it.

It is not normal for a hard right/far right party to get 72 million quid funding from crypto-billionaires within 3 days while that same party is under police investigation for breaking laws on electoral funding/donations.

That and the more... interesting folks over the pond seem determined to interfere with our politics as well.

The instability/uncertainty in the US is because of their historical (and current) weight on events spreading everywhere.

It's easy to poke fun at the US while downplaying our issues but in the long run, *unwise*.

HPsquared•12m ago
Always worth studying 1980s USSR.
ModernMech•12m ago
No CIA model needed. A man caused an insurrection meant to overthrow and destabilize the government. Instead of holding him accountable, his actions were ignored despite a clear directive in the Constitution he should never hold any office again, he was nevertheless made president again; he pardoned all the insurrectionists; and now wants to pay them and himself with tax dollars for his inconvenience.

That system is bound for collapse, I don’t care what any model says it just cannot be sustained as a country that ostensibly cares about laws and the Constitution. It’s a joke all the way down.

alephnerd•9m ago
Barbara Walter's model (which is what Armitage is leveraging) is deeply flawed and not the norm in most studies into autocracies and state instability.

And to add on to that, Armitage himself has been a provocateur for "soft secession" (which is basically an attempt at trying to instigate a nullification crisis 2.0).

sandworm101•2m ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_S...

This is why Trump's fight with canada is doomed: Trying to destabilize a top-10 country when your own country doesnt break the top 20.

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