This year’s Nobel Prize in economics is about how expectations affect the economy. News about AI’s impact on work, tariffs, and oil supply shocks makes this work feel especially relevant.

I don’t have a background in economics, and it was not obvious to me how expectations connect to policy, so I wanted to build a page that, at least in a small way, made that connection clear and sharpened my thinking on the subject.

I directed the work and edited the prose heavily, collaborating with AI on research, code, and drafting. The model is essentially a three-equation linear system; the model runs locally in your browser, and the solver code is on the page.

I welcome corrections from people who know this field.