I want AI and these companies to succeed. And I especially want new companies to succeed. But I want them to be valued far more realistically. Because if they have to be worth trillions, then there’s a real motivation to do what it takes to realize that valuation. And that’s how you birth a Zuckerberg.
I’m not rooting for them to fail. I’m rooting for the correction to happen sooner than later.
They are. That's the problem. The obligations that these companies are, on paper, supposed to meet require these valuations.
If you value Anthropic at $500b that's still a fuckload and vastly less than their obligations and a lot of people are going to say "well wait a minute how am I going to get paid".
The amount of spend going on, and planned, is insane and underpins a lot of this, and is why people are skeptical of the valuations. It has nothing to do with "Wanting" AI to fail and just a reasonable bet based on the math. For them to pay back what they have on their balance sheet entire continents will functionally be a spec in comparison, and that's really really fucking unlikely to happen.
Doubly so when you consider that there's a question of if they can be profitable to projected needed levels without fundamentally breaking some economics parts, and that this looks a lot like the overbuild of the internet during the dotcom bubble, which was also hideously overvalued at the time, for the time frame they were looking at, despite being THE literal world changing tech.
AI is just a compute commodity with a value add.
So that leaves...
the second part is not sexy - but we see all a.i labs having fde arms e.g ode, microsoft frontier company etc but then again that's the part you can't hype.
As it stands, even the people closest to this technology have barely figured out how to use it effectively.
Not saying that applies to AI, but it certainly applies sometimes.
Keep in mind this growth has mostly been sustained by low-level business automations, coding, and chatbots. With the adoption of products like personal agents, e.g., Meta's Muse, I am pretty optimistic there will be demand and growth around this level will be sustained for a few quarters. Doubtful we will ever see another ~150% growth quarter.
Most likely the combined revenue growth continued just as fast, but OpenAI took a lot of market share with a model that's ~as good.
If true, then the current market sentiment is too pessimistic because demand for AI (and chips) has continued growing.
- hmmm, why 30 days? Make it 60 days and I'll take the penny.
The effort needed to double everyday, or month is realistic at first. But then you can't just keep doubling without swallowing the universe along the way.
Discussed here a few weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49997161
1) customer concentration risk 2) when those customers use a diverse set of models - so too will the rest - they’re not idiots who want to pay more than they should
Aka % growth rate decreasing sharply and eventually flattening out. Within 2-3 quarters.
Understood?
Especially with this latest crop of models, they seem to be pretty damn competent in classic engineering rather than just software engineering.
Anthropic’s market share is pretty high and there is not enough total currently addressed market for growth at the expense of a competitor to make a big long-term difference.
> given a sufficiently articulated prompt
Are these two statements not at odds with each other? You can always say a prompt is not sufficiently articulated if you need to add additional handholding and vice versa, thereby invalidating any meaning of measurement.
Not due to capability per se, but writing style and polish is much worse.
It will leave really bad comments in the code, commit messages etc without strong explicit steering.
It also tends to talk very circuitously and referencing things implicitly instead of just being direct and clear.
Certainly it's more capable in debugging, but I much prefer Astra over Sol now.
Of course, Astra has its own problems of code golfing everything
There's definitely unique things that so far only Opus is capable of doing.
What does average, non-computer Joe or Jane think when the next big model comes out? "My emails are going to be so much better now, I better stay subscribed"? "I can't wait to see how well it answers my questions"?
Then why all the rush to IPO then?
The strongest chinese models from DeepSeek, Kimi and z.ai are already good enough to run for hours on most coding tasks cheaply.
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