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Show HN: Hormuz Signal – Iran war escalation risk from real data

https://www.HormuzSignal.com/
2•mrPaul658•39m ago
This is a side project I have started to get hard data on Hormuz Strait escalation risk. Reading the narrative anything can happen from Iran claiming to be ready to open the Strait in a couple days to serious US analysts contemplating the apparently realistic scenario of US using a nuclear warhead to hit Pickaxe Mountain. Basically narrative is too volatile to be trusted.

I figured that focusing on data could be more fruitful. Anything from amount of oil flowing through the Strait every day to US oil reserves to China oil imports can be more informative of the war escalation risk than political narrative. The reality is that politicians make decisions based on real data available to them.

The website tracks over a dozen of such data points, including sensors measuring seismic activity in Iran. So if someone actually hits the Pickaxe Mountain the sensor reading it can be faster than a news report coming out minutes later. Iran testing a bomb would also be visible on the seismic activity readings.

All the data is distilled into a single score measuring Iran war escalation risk. How many carriers does the USA have in the area? How many fighter jets does it have? Is the press coverage of the war increasing or decreasing? Are the oil pipelines open or not? There is a lot of other data. All of that gets combined, weighted and distilled into a single 0-100 score. On this scale, 0 means peace with no issues on the horizon, and 100 means hot war.

In these crazy times, the narrative can be crazy too. It's better to look at hard data and consolidate it into a single score / chart. This will tell you much more about the situation on the ground than listening to the talk will. The site has much more data than this though. Check it out for yourself!

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Show HN: Hormuz Signal – Iran war escalation risk from real data

https://www.HormuzSignal.com/
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