The fall of the government only occurred 14 years after the end of that drought though...
plasmatix•9mo ago
Depends which part of Syria we're talking about.
przemub•9mo ago
> Ukraine next year
Next three days, you mean?
hollerith•9mo ago
Counterexamples: fall of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Fourth Republic in France in 1954, English Civil War and the English royal restoration a few decades later.
marcosdumay•9mo ago
Well, I guess the GP should have added "the government stupidly mass-murdering its citizens at random" to the other 3 causes.
About the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of it was caused by each one of the GP's factors and the mass-murdering. You seem to want a clear case with a well defined "fall", but theirs wasn't it (like any supranacional empire).
wqaatwt•9mo ago
> and the mass-murdering
Right, yet mass murdering in the USSR stopped 30 years before its collapse. Of course it was still an oppressive totalitarian state but nowhere close to Stalin’s day.
It kind of the opposite. USSR collapsed a few years after the party loosened its grip and began liberalizing. Freedom of the press (to a limited extent) fair elections began a cascade.
On the other hand during the great purge in the 30s and later the 40s there was very little and effectively no organized opposition (outside of a few recently occupied peripheral states)
spinytree21•9mo ago
afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too.
you do make a point that nobody revolted during the purges, fear and killing opposition can be stabilizing. Removing fear (by say liberalization) can embolden opposition to act fast and get rid of perceived tyrants / avenge past transgressions.
wqaatwt•9mo ago
> embolden opposition
If there even is one. In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time. There were some exceptions of course.
> afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too.
Not that many in relative terms. Even according to independent estimates it was ~26k over 10 years (compared to 1-3 million Afghans..). That was of course much more than what NATO/etc. lost in their war but several times less than what Russia is losing now in Ukraine every single year.
And of course there was no famine in the USSR in the late 80s (and as for general shortages the worst came when the collapse was effectively inevitable).
spinytree21•9mo ago
> And of course there was no famine in the USSR in the late 80s.
I'm curious on what you base this information on. Having lived that period and experiencing first hand the shortages, I can say the opposite.
> In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time
That is generally what happens with revolutions. In some places it got better though. Not all ex-USSR ended up like belarus or russia.
wqaatwt•9mo ago
> I can say the opposite
You mean your are aware of an actual famine in the UUSR in the late 80s?
> Not all ex-USSR ended up like belarus or russia
None besides the Baltic states did well though (and they are somewhat special due to historical and diplomatic reasons). All other states are generally very poor and extremely corrupt (even those that have m have lots of oil like Azerbaijan).
spinytree21•9mo ago
> You mean your are aware of an actual famine in the UUSR in the late 80s?
I have lived through the time period and have experienced the shortages first hand...
Can you say the opposite?, that life was good?, that people did not starve?, where did you learn that?
wqaatwt•9mo ago
Did they literally starve in the 80s? I mean I’m not rejecting you experience it would just be interesting to hear more..
> that life was good?
Never made such claims or that there were no shortages. Famine is something else though..
hollerith•9mo ago
I appreciate your participation here: I did not know that ordinary Soviet citizens were chronically short on calories in the late 1980s.
wqaatwt•9mo ago
According to data that we have from Western sources (of course still take with a grain of salt since getting accurate statistics from the USSR on any topic was near impossible) average Soviet citizen consumed only slightly less calories than the average American.
Of course they ate much more grain products and potatoes and relatively little meat (and AFAIK it wasn’t very good quality at all anyway).
And of course tropical and out of season fruits were a huge luxury..
marcosdumay•9mo ago
The party loosened its grip and began liberalizing because the block was collapsing, not the other way around.
That one is also common on places with violent governments. The people organize themselves, fight for survival and get some victories; the government makes concessions; the people say "too little, too late" and keep fighting for more until they get meaningful change. If you look, the English Revolution also got the most impressive results way after the kind had loosened his rules.
alephnerd•9mo ago
> fall of the Soviet Union
The USSR relied heavily on imported grain and fertilizers from the US by the 1970s-80s [0], but the Carter administration placed a sanctions regime on the USSR preventing them from importing inputs for farm as well as grain [1].
Successive bad harvests lead to food shortages by the early 1980s [2][3]. Because of the Afghan War and the weapons buildup race with the US, there just wasn't as much money available for the Soviet administration to help alleviate social pain.
Those shortages (remember the photos of long lines at near empty groceries stores) along with Perestroika meant a lot of pissed off people went to the streets.
The Soviet Union could not buy wheat in the free market due to falling oil revenue. In the end it was its' inability to feed its' people that drove the collapse.
ashoeafoot•9mo ago
It also puts the rebels on deaths ground. People who are on deaths ground with no way out will fight like they have nothing to loose but the noose.
londons_explore•9mo ago
All other issues people will complain about, but never act on en-mass.
sigwinch•9mo ago
londons_explore•9mo ago
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war
JSteph22•9mo ago
plasmatix•9mo ago
przemub•9mo ago
Next three days, you mean?
hollerith•9mo ago
marcosdumay•9mo ago
About the fall of the Soviet Union, a lot of it was caused by each one of the GP's factors and the mass-murdering. You seem to want a clear case with a well defined "fall", but theirs wasn't it (like any supranacional empire).
wqaatwt•9mo ago
Right, yet mass murdering in the USSR stopped 30 years before its collapse. Of course it was still an oppressive totalitarian state but nowhere close to Stalin’s day.
It kind of the opposite. USSR collapsed a few years after the party loosened its grip and began liberalizing. Freedom of the press (to a limited extent) fair elections began a cascade.
On the other hand during the great purge in the 30s and later the 40s there was very little and effectively no organized opposition (outside of a few recently occupied peripheral states)
spinytree21•9mo ago
you do make a point that nobody revolted during the purges, fear and killing opposition can be stabilizing. Removing fear (by say liberalization) can embolden opposition to act fast and get rid of perceived tyrants / avenge past transgressions.
wqaatwt•9mo ago
If there even is one. In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time. There were some exceptions of course.
> afganistan war killed a lot of people, food shortages would kill others too.
Not that many in relative terms. Even according to independent estimates it was ~26k over 10 years (compared to 1-3 million Afghans..). That was of course much more than what NATO/etc. lost in their war but several times less than what Russia is losing now in Ukraine every single year.
And of course there was no famine in the USSR in the late 80s (and as for general shortages the worst came when the collapse was effectively inevitable).
spinytree21•9mo ago
I'm curious on what you base this information on. Having lived that period and experiencing first hand the shortages, I can say the opposite.
> In the USSR most reformists or people who achieved real power after the collapse were opportunistic party insiders who were at the right place at the right time
That is generally what happens with revolutions. In some places it got better though. Not all ex-USSR ended up like belarus or russia.
wqaatwt•9mo ago
You mean your are aware of an actual famine in the UUSR in the late 80s?
> Not all ex-USSR ended up like belarus or russia
None besides the Baltic states did well though (and they are somewhat special due to historical and diplomatic reasons). All other states are generally very poor and extremely corrupt (even those that have m have lots of oil like Azerbaijan).
spinytree21•9mo ago
I have lived through the time period and have experienced the shortages first hand...
Can you say the opposite?, that life was good?, that people did not starve?, where did you learn that?
wqaatwt•9mo ago
> that life was good?
Never made such claims or that there were no shortages. Famine is something else though..
hollerith•9mo ago
wqaatwt•9mo ago
Of course they ate much more grain products and potatoes and relatively little meat (and AFAIK it wasn’t very good quality at all anyway).
And of course tropical and out of season fruits were a huge luxury..
marcosdumay•9mo ago
That one is also common on places with violent governments. The people organize themselves, fight for survival and get some victories; the government makes concessions; the people say "too little, too late" and keep fighting for more until they get meaningful change. If you look, the English Revolution also got the most impressive results way after the kind had loosened his rules.
alephnerd•9mo ago
The USSR relied heavily on imported grain and fertilizers from the US by the 1970s-80s [0], but the Carter administration placed a sanctions regime on the USSR preventing them from importing inputs for farm as well as grain [1].
Successive bad harvests lead to food shortages by the early 1980s [2][3]. Because of the Afghan War and the weapons buildup race with the US, there just wasn't as much money available for the Soviet administration to help alleviate social pain.
Those shortages (remember the photos of long lines at near empty groceries stores) along with Perestroika meant a lot of pissed off people went to the streets.
[0] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_United_States%E2%80%93S...
[1] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_grain_embargo_...
[2] - https://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/15/world/soviet-food-shortag...
[3] - https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-11-18-mn-8360-s...
gepiti•9mo ago