a) NASA didn’t/doesn’t have the capacity

b) The Russians did have the capacity but it was expensive and also painful to American egos to utilise this repeatedly, not to mention a risk due to geopolitical uncertainty.

c) NASA therefore funded Boeing and SpaceX to develop ‘home grown’ capability. (Note: SpaceX received less than Boeing for this development.)

d) Boeing’s space division lost up a big lead (over SpaceX) through poor development and execution, echoes of which continue to this day with the issues seen with Starliner leading to the two astronauts being effectively ‘stranded’ for a period of

e) SpaceX did a good job of developing Dragon and getting Falcon 9 rated for human flight. Since then, their reliability, low cost, and high launch cadence, coupled with Boeing’s missteps, has led to multiple contracts and successful launches.

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It’s also worth mentioning that SoaceX was started when Musk wasn’t so crazy (remember, once upon a time, he was the woke darling of the progressive center-left) and also that a lot of its success and stability may be thanks to its COO, Gwynne Shotwell. Calling it Musk’s “toy company” ignores the huge advances it has made, thanks to the fantastic people that work there, and also (gulp) Musk himself.

The DoD knows if SpaceX can't launch, they straight up will never get their assets into orbit. The ULA backlog is like a decade.

Right here where I live, in the United States.

I never suggested expropriation in general would be widely supported, but when you have the richest man in the world (who has spent the last year making enemies of virtually everyone other than a small cadre of twitter shitposters) manically making decisions while reportedly on a downward spiral drug bender and he suggests taking action that would lead to endangering the lives of astronauts and an overall weakening of America's national security, yeah the government would have had massive popular support for seizing SpaceX.

If you don't think so I think you might be living in a libertarian bubble.

And this isn't just a random expropriation. While I may have to cry myself to sleep at the thought of our once great nation having devolved into a bitchy slap fest by a couple of narcissistic man babies, the fact is that SpaceX probably wouldn't exist today without the US government, so with Musk having a temper tantrum and saying "I'm taking my toys and going home", the US government would have at least somewhat valid national security reasons to take over SpaceX.

Couple that with the fact that Musk is hated, extremely, by many folks out both sides of the political aisle, means that the rule of law concerns about a SpaceX expropriation would largely be ignored.