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The Crisis of Professional Skepticism

https://mitchhorowitz.substack.com/p/the-crisis-of-professional-skepticism
35•mathgenius•9h ago

Comments

itsanaccount•4h ago
I keep reading little mentions, here and there that entire lines of scientific inquiry were quashed over the last century.

As someone who is fascinated by the UFO witnesses coming forward, which I have posted about on this site to standard ridicule, I think theres something to it.

But as a former member of CFI, I am well aware of the number and levels of grifters in the world. So I look forward to that intersection, of impeccable reputation and genuine curiosity in a single person, who decides to ressurect these dead threads of research.

If the 1930s ESP experiments showed anomalies, lets reproduce them and learn something new. Same goes with Townsend Brown's high voltage gravity anomalies. I hope, but I expect to die disappointed.

jemmyw•2h ago
> If the 1930s ESP experiments showed anomalies, lets reproduce them and learn something new.

There's not really anything to learn. There's no widespread evidence of ESP going on. The experiments back then were evidence enough that it doesn't exist. Yes, there were statistical anomalies, but perhaps you are misinterpreting the meaning of that phrase? If you roll a dice and get a 6 ten times in a row, and then you roll it more times and show a regression then you had an anomaly. If you continue rolling 6 then it's not an anomaly, it's evidence of something else. In those experiments they got anomalous sixes, but wanted to believe it was evidence so made up a story about ability fading or other explanations.

There are various things that people want to believe, and they'll keep coming up for as long as there are people. We each have so many thoughts and feelings and a long enough life that in our lifetimes there will be a few instances where a thought or feeling circumstantially matches reality in a way that makes us believe something more is going on. Most of the time its probably harmless and not worth getting worked up about. Sometimes it deserves investigation, and when disproof is not heeded, a bit of ridicule might prevent future scams.

whoknowsidont•1h ago
>As someone who is fascinated by the UFO witnesses coming forward, which I have posted about on this site to standard ridicule, I think theres something to it.

I mean I wouldn't call it "standard" at this point. The last 3 years the UFO community has made lofty claims and received unprecedented government attention but nothing has come out of it.

Every. Single. Video or piece of evidence has been debunked in a very rigorous scientific sense. The rest have been proven to be literal videos of balloons.

In one hilarious incident for MONTHS the UFO community believed there was a real video of the Malaysian airlines flight being abducted via some type of teleportation technology.

Meanwhile the video had been on the internet for like 10 years and the actual animator had to come and say he had made it himself.

When you compare such grand, extraordinary claims with the outcomes there's no logical choice but to just call the people involved in those circles grifters or Russian assets.

There IS a reason why Newsmax is pushing the UFO stories. And it's not because they're valid.

Quite frankly if I were in poverty and watched how the government treated the lower classes, while it gives unwarranted respect to UFO conspiracy theorists at the highest levels of government it'd lead me to do very drastic things.

And I'm not afraid to say that publicly.

igor47•22m ago
Absolutely! The entire UFO phenomenon is just edging its true believers, or like dubstep that takes infinitely long to get to the drop. Always there's something that's about to be revealed or blow the whole thing open, but then it's just more rumors and hearsay and blurry videos of not quite anything.
spondylosaurus•4h ago
I dunno. I can understand OP's point, but in an era where bullshit runs rampant at every level of society, it's hard for me to agree that "We need to hear these guys out" is either a priority or a generally good idea.
joe_the_user•3h ago
Yeah, it's extremely hard to get to a serious scientific discussion when field of "ufology" is so filled with grifters.

The main problem I'd see with CSICOP isn't dismissing alien visitor out-of-hand but rather tarring ideas that are merely unusual with the brush of crankdom - for example, I think Martin Gardener was attacking Alfred Korzybsky long ago. I'm not a Korzybskyite but I think his ideas are in no way tied to any super-natural or extra-scientific assertions.

halfcat•3h ago
People are generally decent at knowing something exists, but generally poor at knowing what it is.

This is true for book reviews or UFOs/psychics/whatever. A reader can tell you the book wasn’t good and they’ll give a reason. Usually they’re right that it’s not good, and wrong about why.

The problem here is they’re right that it’s something (it’s not nothing), and probably wrong about the why. But most academic types won’t even acknowledge that it’s not nothing.

I could respect them if they said, “It’s not nothing, but right now the cost to inquire further into that topic is too high and not our area of focus”

roenxi•4h ago
> “I found myself attacked by the Committee members and board, who considered me to be too soft on the paranormalists,”

It is actually a pretty interesting point to consider deeply. Engaging with people from a position of constructive scepticism does require going in with an open mind that could realistically be changed. However, anyone who has done that once or twice quickly realises that:

1) Most people appear to have avoided thinking critically about any of their beliefs at all. At best they are repeating poorly-understood arguments from other people they respect, at worst they are playing team sports.

2) Many topical problems appear to have been settled decades or centuries ago and people are just not interested in the problems they are professing to be concerned about. This happens a lot in politics; it is wildly unusual for a new topic to come before a legislative body and most policies that make it through the process haven't been thoughtfully assessed in terms of what happened the last time people tried it. The fact that people want to tinker with the laws at all is actually a pretty big tell that the process is weird - the situation a society faces doesn't change so quickly that the laws need to be adjusted every year. It should be a rather rare thing.

It requires a sophisticated understanding of the world and an unusual grasp of empathy to maintain a level of honest scepticism in the face of those two dynamics. Trying to have a conversation about why people believe something just turns up the answer that they do and they don't have any particular reason. Most of the time there isn't anything to discuss or dig in to.

Nevermark•2m ago
> Most of the time there isn't anything to discuss or dig in to.

Yes. It took humans centuries, millennia, or a couple hundred millennia, depending on how we think about it, to slowly, as a group of millions of people, develop the systematic checks and filters on our thinking that we call mathematics and science.

The surprise is having inherited that, some of us think checking our own beliefs this way is natural. We are healthy skeptics of ourselves.

That many people honestly (and I believe it is generally honest) don't "get it", don't understand how easy it is, for each of us to fool ourselves, is the unsurprising thing.

We did not evolve to discover solid truths. Just to navigate natural and social environments full of correlations, unlikely ever to be well understood, and statistically survive.

ziofill•3h ago
About 20 years ago I used to volunteer for CICAP, the Italian skeptics society. One year we had a big convention with lots of cool speakers. Obviously also some weirdos with wacky ideas showed up at the venue. I will always remember how Marino, one of the senior members, used to interact with them: he didn’t take them seriously, but he made them feel heard. I bet many of them came ready for a “fight” (or to be ridiculed) and they found enough respect to be content and leave in peace.
halfcat•3h ago
This is what made Art Bell’s radio show, Coast to Coast AM, so great. Whether he was a believer or not, he was a great storyteller and took a default position of respect and good intent with every caller. If someone claimed to be a time traveler, well hey that’s big if true, so let’s hear more.
KennyBlanken•3h ago
It should be noted that the author thinks ESP is a Thing, and it's worthy of study / research. They're essentially concern-trolling / no-true-scotsman-ing skeptics - that they're not the right kind of skeptics or occasionally skeptics also did misleading things, and bullied those poor poor ESP researchers and hurt the field of ESP research and that's why we don't hwave any proof ESP is a thing. That a skeptic didn't perfectly skeptic-ize a ESP researcher (or two, or three) doesn't mean ESP research has the slightest legitimacy or value because regardless of a skeptic's methods, the burden of evidence on something as extraordinary as ESP is purely on the researcher claiming ESP exists.

Of James Randi, he complains in another article (which for some reason BoingBoing published...) on his site: "[Randi made] it more difficult for serious university-based and academically trained researchers to study ESP and mental anomalies, and to receive a fair hearing in the news media."

Uh....Yes? That was the point? Randi dedicated his time and energy to debunking shysters. At best they were seeking fame while popularizing paranormal crap and hurting scientific literacy...and at worst taking advantage of people finanically to varying degrees.

TV used to be awash in idiots claiming to be psychic or able to do absurd things like magnetize their bodies with their mind. I remember Randi was on such a show with such a "magnetic" person, watched them stick something metal to their body...then he whips out a container of baby powder, applies it to the guy who claimed to be able to magnetize himself...and wouldn't you know, the "magnetism" disappeared....because the reason something metal stuck to him was because his sweaty skin had enough stiction (and probably using some rosin to 'help') and use a part of their body angled a bit from vertical. And Randi then demonstrates this, showing he can "magnetize" himself, too.

Randi was a magician, saw people abusing lazy/shitty magic to rip people off, and didn't like that. And the world is a better place for it. That he had an ego, or that his methods weren't perfect, or he was too aggressive for the author's taste - is all completely irrelevant.

What's next, complaining that some doctor is an asshole for appearing on TV to refute people claiming ivermectin cures covid, thus making it impossible for people to seriously study ivermectin's covid benefits? Or that they were too aggressive in responding to the shyster?

at_compile_time•14m ago
>What's next, complaining that some doctor is an asshole for appearing on TV to refute people claiming ivermectin cures covid, thus making it impossible for people to seriously study ivermectin's covid benefits? Or that they were too aggressive in responding to the shyster?

That might not be the best example to use here because the incentives are entirely backwards. The people claiming to have ESP were doing it for fame and money, whereas the scientists and medical professionals claiming that ivermectin was effective for treating COVID were doing it in spite of the professional stigmatisation that came with it. The unscrupulous would have been shilling for pharma as they always have, that's where the money is, not sticking their necks out for some off-patent drug.

lutusp•2h ago
> This kind of misinformation is often recycled in journalism and reference literature [ ... ]

Including this article, whose preferred outlook quickly becomes clear. This can all be resolved by objective research programs having strong controls and a high bar of statistical significance (much higher than P = 0.05). Speaking hypothetically, of course.

> My sympathies for parapsychology are self-evident.

This should be the first sentence in the article, not nearly the last, buried in the footnotes.

The article tries to say that, because of bad actors, parapsychology research has failed to resolve basic scientific issues. This is false. Bad actors on both sides notwithstanding, an evidence vacuum continues to draw air away, leaving room only for breathless argument.

igor47•15m ago
If you're actually interested in skepticism, I recommend the podcast Skeptics Guide to the Universe (SGU). James Randi was a good friend of the hosts. The show mainly is a discussion of general science news from a skeptical lens. Their attitude towards the paranormal stuff is pretty dismissive, but this is because they've engaged with the believers for decades and have discovered a complete disregard for evidence or truth in those communities.

I also really the movie "behind the curve", which goes deep into the flat earth movement. Really a great way to understand what motivates these people (status in their community, mostly) and how they think (with lots of bias).

Animats•14m ago
Mandatory XKCD.[1]

If any of this stuff worked, there would be commercial applications by now.

[1] https://xkcd.com/808/

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