This was a guy who took 14 ballots to get in the Hall of Fame.
I'm not sure summing up career WAR is the best way to rank players, though. It favors guys who played a long time, like Blyleven who played 22 seasons. Sandy Koufax played half as long but was undoubtedly better at his peak. Who was really "better" overall? You probably want some metric that combines career totals and peak production, but ultimately there is no universal way to come up with one definitive ranking, so we will debate it forever.
How does WAR miss this goal? It credits year-to-year player contributions and gives more credit for better seasonal performances. Longevity alone doesn't ensure a higher WAR total since a negative WAR valuation is possible (and common).
>...but ultimately there is no universal way to come up with one definitive ranking, so we will debate it forever.
WAR is a universal way to come up with a definitive ranking. It's a framework for measuring player contributions that is applied equally to all players. That's not to say it is the universal way, but the beauty of WAR is that the framework can be re-created to value or devalue player contributions as one sees fit and then use those criteria to measure all player contributions.
That's why the authors of this paper cite the two most common WAR frameworks (bWAR and fWAR). And it's why they've created their own version which incorporates a measure of the available talent pool at the time of each player's career.
Think of it in term of HN:
Let's say you and I both make the same number of comments and submissions per year. For 7 years each of your comments and submissions gets 100 karma. For 20 years each of mine gets 75 karma. On a per-comment/submission basis you contributed more, but I contributed more in my HN career.
Hypothesis 1: statisticians love good data sources, and with its many games, innings, and types of hits / pitches it’s a great source.
Hypothesis 2: makes you seem more interesting at dinner parties
hypothesis 3: a natural overlap of preferences
jleyank•2d ago
PaulHoule•2d ago
monster_truck•2h ago