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What do we do if SETI is successful?

https://www.universetoday.com/articles/what-do-we-do-if-seti-is-successful
93•leephillips•1d ago

Comments

alganet•1d ago
We can make it so it's never aliens, or always aliens. Public and science opinion has become a free for all lately.

People are so caught up in the 3I/ATLAS stuff, for example. Should we beam a message to it? What should we think of it? It's a circus.

Let's go back to Boyajian's Star instead. Can we really be sure the dimming is not caused by a mothership coming from that direction? It explains everything, right? Maybe that's how they communicate, by sending a paper plane and opening a large occlusion origami that says "we come from this general direction" (I'm cosplaying Avi Loeb here, satirically).

There's something about interpretation in all of this. Space is full of radio signals. We determine lots of them to be natural (with good reason).

I'm afraid proposing "we should answer" (in case of electromagnetic signals) could lead to a scenario in which people are encouraged to believe something without the means to verifying it. Some idiot group could do it just to increase the popular optimism about space in order to induce a favorable perception on the development of space technologies with the ultimate goal of just bumping some industry with money. It's the kind of world we live in right now, unfortunatelly.

If we want to be serious about humanity's place in the universe, first we need to be serious about our home right here. I don't think we're mature enough to have responsible control over technologies that could be used to send a powerful signal into space.

estimator7292•1d ago
I've always thought that the public reaction to aliens in Contact was precisely, painfully accurate. Panic, cults, religions, the typical human response to something huge, unknown, and unknowable.
vee-kay•1d ago
You should see the movie Don't Look Up. It is even more painfully accurate portrayal of our times, and it eeriely explains why the world's richest men are building and testing rockets and spaceships. (Answer: No, it ain't merely for space tourism or mere profits. They know their misdeeds will ruin the Earth one day, so they are preparing a Plan B.)
alganet•1d ago
Dude, the movie Don't Look Up is a metaphor for climate change denialism. It has nothing to do with asteroids.
vee-kay•6h ago
The movie Don't Look Up is still an apt metaphor, because the variable (how the apocalypse will happen) may change, but the outcome won't.

The same richest elites that refuse to acknowledge and do anything to revert climate change, will do nothing (except try to escape Earth in spaceships) if and when any humanity detects and anticipates any Earth destroying apocalypse inducer (asteroid/meteor or extreme solar flare) from out of the depths of space.

alganet•4h ago
It's kind of a stretch.

To a more naive, metaphor-blind audience, your mention of Don't Look Up makes it look like the scientists are warning about an alien comet and I'm the one ignoring it.

I'm very familiar with apocalyptical narratives of all kinds, but what I'm approaching here is much different. I'm talking about the integrity of scientific endeavours. In particular, space exploration endeavours.

wijwp•2h ago
> People are so caught up in the 3I/ATLAS stuff, for example. Should we beam a message to it? What should we think of it? It's a circus.

Is it really a circus? Seems almost everyone who knows what they're talking about says it's just a natural object.

Anything can be a circus if you listen to people who don't know what they're talking about.

Bender•1d ago
What Do We Do If SETI Is Successful?

Not sure. Can some of HN at least agree that if it's the Empire we all join and act as if we love serving the Emperor and then put subtle code in the planet killing weapons that overload and self destruct if pointed at human listed planets?

tetris11•1d ago
If survival is key in that regard, then we'd probably be encouraged to spread/cohabit with other species' planets so that the target is more fuzzy.

Earth might still be at risk, but never underestimate the human ability to sell large tracts of land to foreign investors in exchange for a few concessions.

Bender•1d ago
we'd probably be encouraged to spread/cohabit with other species

I will do my part to find out which humanoid-like species are genetically compatible with as wide of coverage humanly possible.

IAmBroom•2h ago
Username does not check out.
general1465•1d ago
Unless we will find some Space Nazis like Qu from All Tomorrows.
boznz•1d ago
Humanity Needs Aliens to Survive => https://rodyne.com/?p=3051
no_wizard•2h ago
Though I feel this is fairly lazily written, it does have a basic premise I've seen before.

I read an article about post cold war US society. Basically, from 1989-2001 the United States was in a transition period that culminated with the first opportunity to seize on a "universal bad" (terrorism) because the USSR filled the role so readily for so long, US society was set adrift with partisan factions that couldn't find a common enemy to get behind in times of internal struggle.

That is the gist of the article, sub USSR for aliens and all of humanity for US society and you have the same basic outline

general1465•1d ago
As a pragmatic opportunist

- Setup a massive array of antennas in space for reception only

- Try to decode their radio traffic and understand how they are exchanging information

- Steal their their knowledge and use it to advance human race forward.

- Reduce all our electromagnetic emissions to minimum to deny them the same advantage. Forbid anyone from sending signal towards them so we have time to technologically catch up to them without them noticing.

Any kind of contact will ends up in abysmal disaster as we have seen in the past, when advanced civilization shown up on shores of less advanced one.

edflsafoiewq•1d ago
You're unlikely to get any radio signal that isn't specifically meant for you.
general1465•1d ago
If SETI would be able to catch their signal on Earth, then antenna array in the space aimed at them, far from Earth to prevent our noise could work.
IAmBroom•2h ago
That's not how electromagnetic radiation works.
nh23423fefe•2h ago
Efficient communication looks like noise.
jerf•2h ago
It kind of is. You're thinking directionality, but there's also the fact that optimal transmission will involve using compression and possibly encryption, which by its nature turns the signal into noise if you don't already know it's a signal. An optimal signal, which it seems reasonable to assume would be what aliens would be using by the time they're communicating across star systems, would be much more difficult to detect as a signal than something like an FM radio station, which puts a lot of energy into broadcasting a carrier that is there even if the station is transmitting total silence.
dylan604•1h ago
You're forgetting the Contact method where the actual signal is buried in a beacon signal. The beacon signal is very much a "primitive" non-random not noise signal...primes. Now that you've recorded enough of that beacon signal, someone analyses each of the pulses to realize there's a message embedded within. This way, you don't need a response to know someone go it. When they magically show up in the machine you've sent the plans as that message, you'll know the message was received.
ivell•1d ago
> Forbid anyone from sending signal towards them so we have time to technologically catch up to them without them noticing.

This is going to be difficult. Immediately there would be cults that would be inviting them to earth to salvage us.

general1465•1d ago
Yeah but they would need to transfer for a long enough time to be noticed and decoded by the other side, so it would easy to spot and eliminate them quickly. Unless they are a smart cult and managed to make some self unpacking and executing coding which they could send over radio.
hermitcrab•2h ago
Shades of "Three body problem".
bossyTeacher•1d ago
Sounds like you read Remembrance of the Earth's Past
general1465•1d ago
I did not, but it looks interesting, thanks for the tip.
HeyLaughingBoy•1d ago
I didn't know Proust wrote sf.
leephillips•22h ago
He did, but he called his SF novel In Search of Lost Earth.
wkat4242•1d ago
This presumes they have the same nasty survival-of-the-fittest kill-or-be-killed attitude as humanity. Our evolution kinda created that but it doesn't have to apply everywhere. I think it's entirely possible that alien civilisations could exist that are a lot more symbiotic.

We have a saying in Holland "the innkeeper trusts his guests like himself" which seems to apply here.

Koshkin•23h ago
Right; or, since they are not competing with us for resources, they could kill us just for sport.
wkat4242•18h ago
Again the concept of sport imposes human concepts on a hypothetical alien culture.

There's no reason to assume their society would have developed along similar lines. I'm sure there's alien civilisations that are more aggressive than us, but also ones that are less so.

I don't think we'll ever meet any though as our lifespan is just so short on a universal scale. And FTL travel seems to be impossible otherwise we'd have seen signs of it.

Of course according to our current physics understanding it is also impossible but I don't think humanity is very smart yet. But this thing might be right.

akimbostrawman•10h ago
>the concept of sport imposes human concepts on a hypothetical alien culture.

Many animals like cats do it. Its not a human concept but one from superior smarter predators which should occur regardless from what planet they are. The greater the differences in intelligence and power the easier it is to justify cruelty.

I do think it's less likely because to actually travel space they would need to be so technologically advanced that we simply wouldn't be worth fighting or destroying. Maybe studying which could be cruel in its own way.

throwup238•2h ago
> And FTL travel seems to be impossible otherwise we'd have seen signs of it.

What signs? Projects like LIGO that measure gravitational waves are still measuring cataclysmic collisions of ultra massive bodies. Maybe once the detector is good enough to detect exoplanets and smaller objects we can start drawing some conclusions.

I don’t believe FTL is possible, but on the off chance that it is, we’d be so deep into technology-as-magic territory that any speculation on detectability is totally pointless.

hermitcrab•2h ago
>Our evolution kinda created that but it doesn't have to apply everywhere.

Presumably any alien species was also shaped by evolution, so is also likely to be similarly competitive. Maybe you can escape your evolutionary past. But maybe not.

wijwp•2h ago
They'd have to get through The Great Filter, so maybe they'd have avoided or have moved beyond some of our evolutionary downfalls.
babelfish•2h ago
"The Great Filter" is probably just interspecies contact.
anigbrowl•2h ago
It doesn't even apply in this world. There are many examples of a more advanced civilization steamrolling a simpler one, but there are also examples of that not happening. It's by no means an inevitability.
layman51•2h ago
I would hope so, but this whole situation reminds me of a quote from the writer William S. Burroughs: "This is a war universe. War all the time. That is its nature. There may be other universes based on all sorts of other principles, but ours seems to be based on war and games."

It is a bleak view. When I even think about the behaviors of some of the animals (e.g. seals, praying mantises) we share existence with, it seems like it could be accurate. On the positive side, the concept of the infinite game (e.g. culture) is what should give us hope.

no_wizard•2h ago
Hopefully we never have the pleasure of discovering Prothean style ruins on a nearby planet and Pluto isn't actually a frozen mass relay. That one never ends well.

Though I personally love the idea of advanced, civilized extraterrestrial life. I hope it exists (statistically feels likely but yet to be confirmed). Even if it turns out we humans are at a near lockstep with another civilization it'd be game changing if we could communicate especially.

All that said, maybe there's a "galactic civilization onboarding" program once a species meets a sufficiently advanced criteria independently, with no outside intervention. Perhaps the universe will turn our ideas on their head, and assumptions may not apply.

Our understanding of the world, for however great it is, is still likely full of things we can't fathom and unknowns we don't know. Its fun to speculate but the reality is we are only basing most of our knowledge on how things might be in the universe based on our singular planet's path of evolution.

It makes it truly hard to think of what alternative life forms may exist.

BrandoElFollito•1h ago
When I see what kind of information we sent out, I would not koof my breath.

We would learn that they are gelatinous beings who coi5nt in base 17 and show an antenna to say hello.

thrance•54m ago
Your are reasoning like a 15th century conquistador with spaceships.

> Any kind of contact will ends up in abysmal disaster as we have seen in the past, when advanced civilization shown up on shores of less advanced one.

Interstellar travel is mind-boggingly difficult and expensive. Even assuming 100% fuel-efficiency, it is basically impossible to conquer other worlds, and doing so would come at zero benefits for the homeworld, as anything that could be brought back from conquered exoplanets could be made for far cheaper and faster at home. Atoms are the same everywhere in the galaxy, no planet has any unique stuff that is valuable enough that is makes sense to haul it across the galaxy.

The one thing that is cheap to trade is information, so why not cooperate with everyone? Competition is useless as we've seen, so why not give away everything we know in exchange for everything they know?

general1465•37m ago
We could give them everything what we know and they could give us back a relativistic kill missile. No reason to try to conquer a planet if you can just extinguish a protentional threat, which luckily was naive to be useful before extinguishing.
marcosdumay•1m ago
If some species out there is trying to detect life by the organisms electromagnetic emissions... that's a dumb species.
fph•1d ago
With the current world leadership, I'm (non-sarcastically) afraid someone will try to 'export democracy' to Mars.
vee-kay•1d ago
Don't Look Up
knowitnone3•1d ago
Send memes. Most commenters here assume receiving a message means aliens can reach us - they can't. Think about how distant the closest galaxy is and think about how long it would take to reach them even at light speed. The size of the ship needed, the amount of fuel needed not only for acceleration but stopping as well. Even if they 100x or 1000x our space abilities, it would still be impossible.
ianburrell•1d ago
It also assumes that it is nearby aliens. Our radio transmissions have only gone 100 light years, and probably not detectable beyond a few. But the aliens could be saying hello to everyone from thousand light years away.

It also could not be a message. I think we have ruled out nearby Dyson Swarm (as in thousands of light years), but we could find one in rest of our galaxy or even Andromeda. Dyson Swarms should be noticeably weird infrared stars.

It is also quite possible that we never decode their message. Even with one designed to be decoded, their thinking could be too different.

general1465•1d ago
Or they could just pop up here because they have mastered quantum physics and can just use quantum tunnelling to teleport whole ship across space in an instant.
leeroyjenkins11•1d ago
Get better camouflage so we don't get get found in the Dark Forrest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_forest_hypothesis

>The name of the hypothesis derives from Liu Cixin's 2008 novel The Dark Forest, as in a "dark forest" filled with "armed hunter(s) stalking through the trees like ghosts". According to the dark forest hypothesis, since the intentions of any newly contacted civilization can never be known with certainty, then if one is encountered, it is best to make a preemptive strike, in order to avoid the potential extinction of one's own species. The novel provides a detailed investigation of Liu's concerns about alien contact.

sdwr•23h ago
That's an allegory for life under authoritarian rule, not a literal alien contact plan
cousinbryce•22h ago
Bold to assume aliens will ascribe to something besides despotism
kulahan•1h ago
You can't imagine that one single alien race anywhere will deviate from this?

Wouldn't that kinda imply that your vision on the topic is almost certainly wrong anyways?

IAmBroom•2h ago
Or, both.
9dev•1h ago
IIRC the author said there are no meta layers of meaning, it’s just honest to god fiction written to be entertaining. I’m struggling a little myself to accept that for the entire trilogy, but that’s that.
teekert•2h ago
What would we become in such a universe? We would take a step back, it will become about survival again (I know it's like that on earth here and there), not about growing together, exploring. It's like Star Trek's mirror universe.

Sure I'd fight for humanity, but I'd be so disappointed. Maybe even enough to just give up.

(I have to admit I just could not make it through part 2 of the Three Body problem, it went to slow for me.)

ge96•1h ago
Following that:

> The Berserker hypothesis, also known as the deadly probes scenario, is the idea that humans have not yet detected intelligent alien life in the universe because it has been systematically destroyed by a series of lethal Von Neumann probes.

smallmancontrov•1h ago
Yeah but they clearly didn't do a very good job on Earth so how systematic could they be?

Don't get me wrong, it's a wonderful premise for a book which can simply mobilize a plot device to brush this problem aside. However, if we want to bring the conclusions back to reality they have to undergo a customs inspection which flags said plot device.

smallmancontrov•1h ago
Liu Cixin had to break the laws of physics -- badly, multiple times -- in order to make the Dark Forest game theory work. That's not a problem, fictional rules are good fun, but generalizing his conclusions back to the real world without sending them through a customs inspection first is a problem. See also: do the dinosaurs escape because the laws of chaos theory dictate that dinosaur zoos are mathematically impossible? Or do they escape because otherwise I wouldn't pay to see the movie and neither would you?

If we ground ourselves back in reality where the speed of light is probably law and the spooky aliens probably don't get to tamper the laws of physics, the actual game-theoretic winning move is always to grow voraciously, threat or no.

bluGill•47m ago
Where the speed of light is probably law (our universe) there is no way aliens could reach earth. The only possibly scenario where earth is in danger is if we terraform and colonize mars (Venus would also do, or a few other large rocks), then we have a falling out and start a major war. The few survivors would not know if anyone is on Mars, but if so they might still be out to get earth so better be quiet. If you are not already in this solar system you can't get here in a useful timeframe no matter how long lived you are.
jay_kyburz•8m ago
We should expand our definition of Aliens visiting earth.

If we received a signal (at light speed) that described how to build a physical alien computer, and then ran a program on that computer, which happened to be AI, we would have alien visitors.

lordnacho•52m ago
But why do we think the aliens as a polity will behave in a way that fits into our own concept of competition between groups?

Couldn't they have some other way of seeing things?

bluGill•45m ago
They could. However their different way might be worse than our concept.

Though survival of the fittest is likely a law and so they will have a concept of competition between groups of some form (though their definition of groups will be different) simply because those without will be destroyed by the first group that does have that concept.

vee-kay•1d ago
The moot question isn't what will happen after Earth receives and confirms an alien signal.

The question is moot, because any alien species advanced enough to send directed signals across solar systems, can and will reach, overwhelm and subsume Earth with ease, once we Earthlings manage to contact such aliens.

And if such events happened in the past, that might explain a few interesting notions we humans tend to have.

"Any sufficiently advanced extraterrestrial intelligence is indistinguishable from God." ~Shermer's last law

But what if that was their intention from the very beginning? What if Earth itself is just yet another alien farm?

What if Earth's beautiful and bountiful life (flora and fauna) was the result of terraforming, by aliens, but indirectly using spores tacked onto cosmic flying objects (comets, meteors, asteroids) that they knew will cross such solar systems and crash into inhabitable planets on some not so random chance?

Abiogenesis is the emergence of life from nonliving organics. It is the leading theory regarding how life spawned on Earth, but it is being questioned due to recent evidence.

Conditions for Life: For life to exist, certain conditions must be met. These include:

* Presence of Water: Essential for biochemical reactions. * Organic Compounds: Building blocks like carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen are crucial. * Energy Source: Sunlight or geothermal energy can drive life processes.

Evidence and Research: While no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life has been found, scientists continue to explore environments on other planets, such as Mars and Europa, which may harbor conditions suitable for life. The study of extremophiles on Earth—organisms that thrive in harsh conditions—provides insights into how life might exist elsewhere in the universe

One prominent theory regarding the extraterrestrial origin of life is Panspermia.

The Panspermia Hypothesis suggests that life, or the building blocks of life, may have been transported to Earth via comets, asteroids, or space dust.

There are several forms of panspermia:

* Naturalistic Panspermia: Life evolves on another planet and is ejected into space, eventually landing on Earth.

* Directed Panspermia: Intelligent beings from another planet intentionally send life to Earth.

* Intelligent Design Panspermia: Life is designed and seeded by extraterrestrial intelligences.

I believe Earth life is the result of Natural Panspermia. But if SETI or other observatories detect and confirm alien signal, then Directed Panspermia might be our origin.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a66036689/a-scientist...

wkat4242•1d ago
I couldn't imagine worshipping aliens even if they were powerful enough to be indistinguishable from gods.

I also think that if such powerful aliens (or actual gods for that matter) were to exist, they wouldn't give a rat's ass about whether we worship them. Because we'd have nothing to offer them. It's like us stepping on ants without thinking about it. Their world is so limited it's meaningless to us. If any gods existed we'd be the same to them.

In any case my intuition will always be to fight hostile authorities, even if its futile. I would never be able to be in the military for example.

vee-kay•6h ago
The aliens, if they exist, will certainly powerful enough to destroy humanity's paltry defenses (and our satellites will be first to fall during an alien invasion), but you are right, they won't bother negotiating or defeating us, they will simply annihilate humanity (via biological weaponry, perhaps), terraform this beautiful bountiful Earth to suit their needs, and use it as they deem fit.

For all of humanity's much vaunted intelligence, we really haven't bothered to unitedly plan for any threats from space, natural or otherwise.

If advanced alien beings did visit Earth in the past, they could be easily have become worshipped as Gods by the humans of that time.

Earth is such a tiny speck in the vast emptiness of space, that unless galaxy colonising aliens are capable of traveling in spaceships at FTL (faster than light) speeds, it may indeed take them hundreds or thousands or millions of years to pass by Earth again on their next sweep through the Goldilocks planets in their terraforming list in this corner of the Universe.

hermitcrab•2h ago
>I couldn't imagine worshipping aliens even if they were powerful enough to be indistinguishable from gods.

A lot of other people seem to be happy worshipping humans of rather limited intelligence right now.

BrandoElFollito•1h ago
Are you religious?

If yes you are already worshipping and imaginary concept. At least with aliens you would have some kind of connection with reality.

If not the word god is not really a part of the vocabulary.

IAmBroom•2h ago
> The question is moot, because any alien species advanced enough to send directed signals across solar systems, can and will reach, overwhelm and subsume Earth with ease, once we Earthlings manage to contact such aliens.

Not possible if our scientific understanding of c is accurate.

I don't care how many episodes of ST you've binged; warp speed is just fantasy.

davisr•1h ago
Is possible, and easy if one accelerates at 1 G for half the trip, then decelerates at 1 G for half the trip. Conventional nuclear fission AND fusion rocket engines, like NERVA, already exist and are flight-certified. 1 light year could be traveled in 2 pilot years.
BrandoElFollito•1h ago
They are too far away.

Now, if they left some time ago...

Simulacra•2h ago
Isn't that what the movie Contact was about?

In all seriousness, I think if we did receive something, it would be classified immediately, and the government, or governments, will move very swiftly with a heavy hand to silence the discovery. At the very least until they know exactly what it is, what it is conveying, and how to respond.

That said, I think that if it got out, a lot of people would absolutely lose their snot. Completely. It would be chaos in some places.

whiplash451•2h ago
People would simply not believe it. I don’t think there is world where aliens messaging is taken seriously on earth (at scale). People would attribute it to the military.
tstactplsignore•2h ago
Ha, or, perhaps for a 2025 variant: it would quickly be shared publicly by government scientists (who are not as secretive or good at keeping secrets as the public seems to think!), the evidence all shared publicly, subject to international peer review and consensus. And then 70% of people would believe it's made-up. The US-sphere would believe China made it up as a plot (or "globalists") and the developing world and BRICS would believe the US made it up as a plot. Western countries would repeatedly sign and then remove themselves from international treaties to prepare for contact.

Bit too on the nose, maybe, but a heck of a lot more likely than a coverup by government scientists.

flux3125•1h ago
>That said, I think that if it got out, a lot of people would absolutely lose their snot. Completely. It would be chaos in some places.

It would definitely be the most important discovery ever made and would move some billions of dollars, but realistically I think people would just carry on with their lives (assuming physical contact with them is impossible in a lifetime).

BrandoElFollito•1h ago
I think there were be the usual bunch of weirdos that predict the end of the world for Thursday, and then the other significant batch of weirdos who will quickly explain it with their religion of choice.

After some ohhhs and ahhhhs we would switch to the next thing.

gmuslera•2h ago
Time is a factor here. How close in time and space would be them?

If we get something coming from more than 100 light years away we might not have the technology to respond, and if we do it may not matter anyway if we are at risk of not having a technological civilization anymore 100-200 years forward. So the meaningful actions on those cases may not include answering back.

Then it will be the actual use of that message. Lets assume that we will decide that is a signal from a civilization that is out there. It will be a signal meant for us and for any other civilization that doesn't have the knowledge/culture level as them, meant for giving us a common ground for communicating back, or it will be something that just will tell us that someone intelligent is out there, but no mean to understand it?

So the options are that we find apparently benevolent aliens willing to contact us, or that we find out that someone is out there but no way to communicate/reach them. I think the second scenario is the most probable one, and how our civilization will react if widely enough will change with time, novelty at first and indifference a few years later.

kulahan•1h ago
I cannot imagine any scenario where we're just 100-200 years away from "no more tech" that isn't purely total nuclear destruction. Even then, we'd probably be so close to getting back to a technological civilization that it'd be a blip in the radar at best if we're talking about a society that far away.

We lost 150 years of progress? That's okay, we had 800 more years to advance before the aliens showed up or whatever.

It's such a weird thing I see so many people assuming. We were down to like 16,000 humans on Earth at one point, and that was before we'd developed things that you could theoretically scavenge and jumpstart your tech.

People need to stop doomscrolling; I'm certain this is depression projected.

wat10000•1h ago
It was also before we'd burned all the easily accessible fossil fuels.
smallmancontrov•1h ago
We mined all of the easily accessible drywall gypsum too, I guess we wouldn't be able to have houses either and would have to live outside in the cold and rain!
nradov•1h ago
Perhaps the aliens will share advanced technology with us such as how to build a tent.
kulahan•1h ago
Thankfully, unless somehow everything manmade disappears, we'll have scraps of windmills, solar panels, and hydro electric generators - with that laying around, it's easy to eventually figure out the underlying concepts and rebuild them.
jandrese•1h ago
Electrification of transportation is already well underway. Obviously ships and planes will lag behind, and may even be forced to use biofuels if we run out of fossil fuels, but the idea that the world will stop when we run out is outdated.

Green power generation is also making huge strides forward, and battery technology is improving enough to make fully green grids a reality. We already see articles about how some countries are managing to go entire days without burning any fossil fuels for power generation. This will increase over time despite what the doomsayers predict. We aren't there yet, but the progress is almost inevitable.

The bigger problem is that we've already burned so much fossil fuel that we are noticeably altering the climate. This is going to cause a lot of stresses in the future, especially in a post-collapse scenario.

elbasti•1h ago
With all due respect, I don't think you understand what the "worst case" scenario looks like for global warming, and how close we are to that scenario. For reference, check out figure 1 in this nature article [1].

That has warming by 2300 as 8C in an "emissions continue current trends" path.

Here's chatgpt giving a picture of what 8C warming looks like. Speculative, hallucinations, caveat emptor, etc...but to give a sense of proportion this, last time the earth was 8C *cooler* than now, ice covered 25% of the planet:

> At +8°C, Earth is fundamentally transformed. Large parts of today’s populated zones—South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, southern Europe, the southern U.S.—are functionally uninhabitable for humans outdoors. Wet-bulb temperatures regularly exceed survivable limits. Agriculture collapses across the subtropics; even mechanized, climate-controlled farming is marginal. Most of the world’s food comes from high-latitude regions: a narrow band across northern Canada, Scandinavia, and Siberia. Sea levels are dozens of meters higher, drowning coastal megacities; Miami, New York, Shanghai, and London are gone. Phoenix is lifeless desert. Seattle is coastal tundra, wetter but still survivable.

> Civilization persists only in fragments. Mass migration and resource wars have rewritten borders. Population is a fraction of 21st-century levels. Global trade, universities, and modern governance are mostly memories. Local, self-sufficient polities dominate. The United States as an institution likely dissolves or transforms beyond recognition—2 out of 10 chance of recognizable survival. Harvard or MIT survive, if at all, as digital archives or autonomous AI-driven knowledge systems—3 out of 10. The world would still have people and culture, but not civilization as we know it.

Edit: I would appreciate knowing why I'm getting downvoted when I added citations for *possible* warming paths (from nature!). Yes, the chatgpt explanation is speculative but I mean, look at the thread we're discussing.

[1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5

leptons•1h ago
In Carl Sagan's Cosmos, he talks about how many advanced civilizations could be out there capable of radio astronomy, and how as in our own experience, we have the capability to wipe out own civilization, so that would also be a factor in other advanced civilizations and could act as a limiting factor. There are many such factors other than nuclear destruction that could impact all functioning of an advanced society, rendering it nonviable.

The idea has nothing to do with "doom scrolling". Go watch some Cosmos...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsl9f83P0Ys

stronglikedan•25m ago
> So the options are that we find apparently benevolent aliens willing to contact us, or that we find out that someone is out there but no way to communicate/reach them. I think the second scenario is the most probable one

I hope the second scenario is the most probable. Any aliens that could contact us would already know we can't even get along with each other, much less them. Even the most benevolent of aliens should see us as a "problem". (I was going to say "threat" but who am I kidding.)

em-bee•2h ago
this is a question i have explored as part of my own scifi world building:

what is a realistic timeline for first contact, and how will it actually happen?

so we decode a message that we are pretty sure is of alien origin.

we send a message back and then wait a few decades or centuries.

we don't know how far away the origin of the message is. let's assume that it is less than 50 light years. that's still a round trip of 100 years. in other words it's a generational project, and we don't know if our first response is understood. we'll have to keep iterating until we can confirm that we are actually communicating. and then, the next step will be to try to understand each other.

with a round trip that long, even under the most optimal conditions just establishing a dialog based on say math is going to take a few centuries.

of course once we have a dialog, communication is going to speed up because then we can send longer messages.

but then it could still take anywhere from 500 to 1000 years before a common language is developed and we are able to share actual scientific and engineering knowledge.

once we reached that level of communication however, we can collaborate on developing FTL.

contrary to star trek, it was always my idea that FTL travel is not developed by the inhabitants of each planet/star system on their own, but only in collaboration across multiple such systems. maybe even more than two. driven by the desire to meet each other.

so from the point of the first received message it will be one millennium before we get to learn anything about and from these aliens, and another millennium before we can meet them in person.

and that's the optimistic projection. it could just as well take 10 times as long.

analog31•1h ago
I predict that if FTL travel is possible, it will happen in our lifetimes, perhaps even as soon as 20 years ago.
gtech1•45m ago
uhm, develop FTL ? Break causality and the universe ?
jay_kyburz•18m ago
I don't know about faster than light, but as soon as we have real AI, it will simply be information and should be able to travel at about speed of light.
jay_kyburz•14m ago
We fleshy humans will never visit other stars, but our AI children will be able to explore the galaxy with all the time in the world.
fuzzfactor•1h ago
>What do we do if SETI is successful?

Resume the search for intelligence right here on Earth?

skc•1h ago
If SETI is successful it would be a fascinating to sit back and observe the deeply religious.
kulahan•1h ago
The Catholic church answered this question ages ago. I assume the other major religions did too. It's really not concerning at all to the institution; the major problem would be with people who don't actually understand their own religion.

Granted, this would be a lot of people, but I think it'd be a midrange of "kinda religious, but not enough to dive in"-types who are mostly freaking out over the revelation.

9dev•1h ago
So, how does the story go? Only earth is blessed by god, because Jesus crashed here, and all the alien races are toast because they didn’t have a chance to learn about Christ, Savior of the strange bipeds from Earth?

I’m sure they came up with an elaborate story how Jesus loves sentient mollusks from Alpha Centauri, but I hope most people are smart enough to realise how little sense it all makes. I for one am curious how this plays out, if I’m lucky enough to witness it.

kulahan•1h ago
tl;dr Humans were first and most important, but if you're omnipotent and building an ant farm, it's logical to provide a nearly infinite number of things to interest and enrich your creations. If there are other creatures, and they're given a rational soul, they were also made aware of God's existence.

At the end of the day, the Catholics (at least) don't believe they were given full knowledge of the universe at some arbitrary point in the past. Instead, we were plopped into it and expected to explore and understand it. This will require us to occasionally update our teachings - just like how scientists need to update their teachings when they discover they didn't understand something before.

It's unbelievably obnoxious to simply assume everyone who doesn't scoff at religion simply isn't "smart enough". You clearly haven't taken much time to understand the topic if you can't come up with even one good argument. Even Richard Dawkins is able to connect with religious logic to a degree.

9dev•1h ago
Note that I didn’t refer to religion as a whole, but the combination of Catholicism and sentient alien life in particular. I am definitely able to sympathise with believing in a kind of architect giving it all a sense of meaning, even if I don’t share that notion. But desperate attempts of wringing a somewhat coherent argument out of texts written for a feudal society millennia ago? That’s just coping.
kulahan•56m ago
Oh, then sure, I won't argue with you there. It's up to you at that point to find the arguments convincing or not.

I think the idea of Imago Dei is actually the most believable part. I am absolutely convinced that we're the forerunners of this universe. The first scenario where a creation becomes aware of its creator - even if I'm imagining the wrong architect.

wernerb•5m ago
The Catholics learned a lot during their witch-hunts regarding heliocentrism..
hn_acc1•1h ago
Check out: "UFO, End Times Delusion" as an example of a fundie take on extra terrestrials. A bit old now, not sure if they've updated it, but it's the kind of stuff I was raised in in the 80s/90s.
BrandoElFollito•1h ago
I don't think it would make any difference.

Religion is completely disconnected from reality, making up things as they go.

A signal from a life form would either be conspiracy or a signal from god, so strong that we cannot understand it.

Either way, no real difference with what we have today.

jandrese•1h ago
It would depend a lot on what the alien species was like.

If they go "oh yeah Religion, that's a quirk of your biology, don't worry you will outgrow it in time" then yeah, that's problematic.

If they go "Oh, you say that the savior Jesus Christ was a human? That answers one of our biggest questions. The story never made much sense before. Boy, those Angels must be pretty freaky looking for you then." then that's entirely different.

bluGill•32m ago
Most will quickly look and discover the bible is silent on the topic which leaves plenty of room for God to create other aliens.

I'm not familiar with every religion, but I think most can say the same.

dudeinjapan•1h ago
Broadcast them Star Trek reruns to convince them to adopt the Prime Directive.
aurizon•1h ago
Earth has a number of very high power semi directional transmitters operating. By this I mean the assorted 50 hertz and 60 hertz AC power systems. These are coherent in areas because there are separated adjacent systems that act to isolate them. These are long in wavelength at about 3000 miles and will penetrate the ionosphere via capacitance. If we had a long wave receiver in orbit past the earth, it could listen on an incrementally varying wavelength from 25 hertz to ~~300 hertz for any similarly radiating civilisation. This radiation would be reduced by square law spreading, but a phase locked loop receiver that gradually scanned this frequency space should be able to detect such radiation out to 100-500 light years. The PLL listens for a long integrating interval, and then steps to the next frequency. The antenna can be tuned to cover the 25 Hz to 300 Hz spectrum by use of mechanically adjustable loading coils. Such an antenna could be a simple long wire that is gravitationally solar stabilised so it would sweep annually. A similar one could be earth centered to enable sweeps at it's far from earth orbit much faster than annually? This is a project that Elon Musk could easily perform and it might get us a Nobel? if we found anything? It would sit there and sieve data in hope of success?
wewewedxfgdf•1h ago
I think SETI is a worthwhile thing do but rank its chances of success at zero.

Just my personal opinion.

7373737373•7m ago
I think it's wise to follow the maxim of not calling something impossible unless some physical law prevents it
kulahan•1h ago
In the end, I kinda... don't care. Look up - there's nothing. There should be at least some alien civilizations trying to make their presence known. There should be some signs somewhere that could be recognized universally as either "stay away" or "come here". It really should be trivial to locate technological civilizations unless you've got some incredibly solid reason as to why EVERY SINGLE ALIEN CIVILIZATION IN THE UNIVERSE acts a certain way. Color me doubtful.

We have billions and billions of data points showing the Universe is empty. We have exactly one (1) data point showing it isn't. And that's us.

Besides, just look at the timeline. The universe has only been cool enough, with enough stable stars, with enough formed planets for potential life to form for a few billion years. Between that and the Drake equation, life alone is likely to be unreasonably uncommon. Life that forms after a planet becomes stable, doesn't have any planet-altering disasters, evolves to complex multicellular forms, evolves some kind of intelligence, becomes social, forms a society, advances technology, and starts exploring the universe...? Why bother? The math doesn't work.

Note: I'm not speaking about any KIND of life existing, I'm speaking about technological civilizations. My belief is that we are essentially the forerunners.

squigz•1h ago
The idea that humanity is the only civilization in the entire universe strikes me as the absolute height of human arrogance.
kulahan•1h ago
Lots of things seem arrogant to lots of people, but without some logical basis, it's worth ignoring.
pfdietz•11m ago
This is an ad hominem argument. It attacks a position not because it's wrong, but because if you advance it you're a bad person.
bluGill•38m ago
When you look up remember that the majority of what you see is in the same sub-arm of the spiral arm of the milky way that we are in. Of those we can see a large number or binary systems - two stars orbiting each other. We fancy telescopes we can see a lot more of course.

All the power of stars, and most of them still are not powerful enough that we can see them even on a dark night! What chance does any alien have of sending a message that reaches us if the light from their star isn't even powerful enough to be easy to detect? It was suggested elsewhere that even if we find an alien, we probably cannot respond if they are more than 100 light years away just because we can't get a message out powerful enough that they can detect (I can't verify this claim but it is reasonable)

wafflebot•9m ago
I have no doubt that civilizations are out there. Maybe a handful, maybe nearing infinity. But out there.

The problem is "out there" is so far away, we are all isolated on our own island worlds. An ocean of space so vast we cannot meaningfully traverse it with probes or radio, to say nothing of manned interstellar flight.

But it never gets boring for me to imagine what other civilizations there might be, and how they might be different from us and from each other.

pfdietz•12m ago
Yes. The Fermi Argument strongly implies this sort of question is pointless, an exercise in wishful speculation.
theletterf•1h ago
For a somber, deeply intellectual view of what could happen, I can't recommend enough Stanislaw Lem's His Master's Voice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/His_Master%27s_Voice_%28novel%...

"Given that our civilization is unable to assimilate well even those concepts that originate in human heads when they appear outside its main current, although the creators of those concepts are, after all, children of the same age—how could we have assumed that we would be capable of understanding a civilization totally unlike ours, if it addressed us across the cosmic gulf?"

breve•50m ago
I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.

It's the only way to be sure.

allenrb•49m ago
> What do we do if SETI is successful?

Beg to be saved from ourselves? Fire up the old electronic thumb? Open a theme restaurant?

bluGill•26m ago
The decision to not respond should not be considered an option for the UN. They can get a week max to decide what to respond, but a response needs to be sent quick. Otherwise you can assume someone will take the choice away and respond anyway. That someone could be a nation not liking the UN discussions, or it could be a rogue scientists with access to the powerful radios. (I doubt most of us could respond if we wanted to - even if someone is willing to break all laws they are either protected by too much security or they are too expensive to afford - but I guarantee someone who works at such a facility is willing to risk responding if governments delay too long)

Even if the UN makes a respond expect someone else to send a different one at some point.

wernerb•9m ago
This is referenced in a sci fi book "The dark forest" of the series "The 3 body problem". It sets a convincing narrative that because of time taken for observation and response and development speed of society it is most likely that all civilizations that announce themselves would likely be a threat in terms of technological supremacy eventually to observing civilizations. In other words, we don't hear anything because any sufficiently advanced civilization would not want to risk being discovered. I.e., the "dark silent forest".
gxd•5m ago
My upcoming story game, a love letter to SETI and the Hacker News crowd, offers some perspectives on the question: https://store.steampowered.com/app/3040110/Outsider/

It will be out in 2 weeks!

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