"A bad [software engineer] can easily destroy that much value even faster (A developer at Knight Capital destroyed $440 million in 45 minutes with a deployment error and some bad configuration logic, instantly bankrupting the firm by reusing a flag variable). "
The biggest being that the only safe way to recycle feature flag names is to put ample time separation between the last use of the previous meaning for the flag and the first application of the new use. They did not. If they had, they would have noticed that one server was not getting redeployed properly in the time gap between the two uses.
They also did not do a full rollback. They rolled back the code but not the toggles, which ignited the fire.
These are rookie mistakes. If you want to argue they are journeyman mistakes, I won’t fight you too much, but they absolutely demonstrate a lack of mastery of the problem domain. And when millions of dollars change hands per minute you’d better not be Faking it Til You Make It.
Google generates a lot of revenue per employee not because the employees are good (though many of them are of course), but because they own the front door to the web. And the Knight Capital story has many nuances left out by that summary.
In both cases the author needed a hard hitting but terse example. But as I said, both the claims are true, so in the voice of the courtroom judge, "I'll allow it."
Developers who get excited by agentic development put out posts like this. (I get excited too.)
Other developers tend to point out objections in terms of maintainability, scalability, overly complicated solutions, and so on. All of which are valid.
However, this part of AI evolves very quickly. So given these are known problems, why shouldn't we expect rapid improvements in agentic AI systems for software development, to the point where software developers who stick with the old paradigm will indeed be eroded in time? I'm genuinely curious because clearly the speed of advancement is significant.
"You might be expecting that here is where I would start proclaiming the death of software development. That I would start on how the strange new angels of agentic AI are simply going to replace us wholesale in order to feast on that $150/hour, and that it's time to consider alternative careers. I'm not going to do that, because I absolutely don't believe it. Agentic AI means that anything you know to code can be coded very rapidly. Read that sentence carefully. If you know just what code needs to be created to solve an issue you want, the angels will grant you that code at the cost of a prompt or two. The trouble comes in that most people don't know what code needs to be created to solve their problem, for any but the most trivial problems. Who does know what code would be needed to solve complex problems? Currently that's only known by software developers, development managers and product managers, three job classifications that are going to be merging rapidly."
Plus running AI tools is going to get much more expensive. The current prices aren't sustainable long term and they don't have any viable path to reducing costs. If anything the cost of operations for the big company are going to get worse. They're in the "get 'em hooked" stage of the drug deal.
There's a great example of that in the linked post itself:
> Let's build a property-based testing suite. It should create Java classes at random using the entire range of available Java features. These random classes should be checked to see whether they produce valid parse trees, satisfying a variety of invariants.
Knowing what that means is worth $150/hour even if you don't type a single line of code to implement it yourself!
And to be fair, the author makes that point themselves later on:
> Agentic AI means that anything you know to code can be coded very rapidly. Read that sentence carefully. If you know just what code needs to be created to solve an issue you want, the angels will grant you that code at the cost of a prompt or two. The trouble comes in that most people don't know what code needs to be created to solve their problem, for any but the most trivial problems.
On your second point: I wouldn't recommend betting against costs continuing to fall. The cost reduction trend has been reliable over the past three years.
In 2022 the best available models was GPT-3 text-davinci-003 at $60/million input tokens.
GPT-5 today is $1.25/million input tokens - 48x cheaper for a massively more capable model.
... and we already know it can be even cheaper. Kimi K2 came out two weeks ago benchmarking close to (possibly even above) GPT-5 and can be run at an even lower cost.
I'm willing to bet there are still significantly more optimizations to be discovered, and prices will continue to drop - at least on a per-token basis.
We're beginning to find more expensive ways to use the models though. Coding Agents like Claude Code and Codex CLI can churn through tokens.
Not willing to accept ex-US devs can do a comparable job at half the price
aetherspawn•1h ago