While acknowledging being in a bubble the quote was "While the music is playing, you have to get up and dance".
Too big to fAIl
Edit: People are literally being forced out of the country by cost of living https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/middle-class...
But everyone hates CA, hates big tech, etc, etc, so maybe the political stars align and this will be the ones who finally set the "no bailout" precedent.
[1] Well actually I can now that I think about it and it's the beltway bandits but that's beside the point.
Everyone wants to know, so it's always news. Even though it usually isn't.
But still, the actual stock market behavior right now is PROBABLY (!!) more reflective of random motion than it is of a fundamental shift in investor behavior.
Unless it isn't.
By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors the Internet was worth investing in. When I realized this one day, sitting in my cubicle, I jumped up like Archimedes in his bathtub, except instead of "Eureka!" I was shouting "Sell!"
Это к вопросу о эпицикле Оракла-Нвидии.
Fixed this for anyone still not processing the bubble.
At the end of the day it's still all about timing the market, which is hard to impossible no matter the conditions.
The advice is correct, but in practice it's only helpful if you can time the crash, which you can't. Cycle-driven run-ups in advance of bubble burst events can be shockingly long.
[1] Which is roughly where we are right now with the AI bubble.
I see the same thing in sports broadcasting. “No 24 year old rookie player has started the season with this many at bats from the left side of the plate against visiting teams since…”
It reminds me of a mini-story within Michael Lewis' Flash Boys - there was a massive project to drill through the solid granite of Pennsylvania mountains in order to lay a new fiber-optic cable so that High-Frequency-trading firms could use it to get their data quicker between Chicago and New York. It was done at huge cost, I think around $300m. The Fiber-optic cable could transmit data between the locations in around 13.1ms - 13.5ms.
However, an alternative option of Microwave towers was setup and installed to transmit data between the same locations. The Microwave Tower could do the same, but around 8.5ms-9ms, ~30% faster. And it didn't cost anywhere near as much.
I worry that not only are those current capital expenditure plans wildly unaffordable, but also that the risk of an innovation rendering all that infrastructure obsolete can't be ruled out. It's a massive gamble.
jauntywundrkind•2h ago
zerosizedweasle•2h ago