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Why Sam Altman Won't Be on the Hook for OpenAI's Spending Spree

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rashishrivastava/2025/11/07/why-sam-altman-wont-be-on-the-hook-for-openais-massive-spending-spree/
62•rramadass•2h ago

Comments

web3-is-a-scam•1h ago
> At an event this week, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar seemed to suggest that the government could act as a “backstop” for the company’s commitments

She said the quiet part out loud? This was always the play, it is obvious. Too big to fail. National security concerns. China/Russia veer scary. Blah blah blah.

Altman’s libertarian pontification is so obviously insincere it’s laughable.

Polizeiposaune•1h ago
And David Sacks immediately responded with "there will be no government bailout":

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/trump-ai-sacks-federal-bailo...

web3-is-a-scam•1h ago
Surely the government would never lie.
sabatonfan•17m ago
I love your username. Offtopic,I have complicated thoughts about crypto but I would genuinely agree that for a normal person like crypto is just scam.

I just have money in usdc and I might like monero for privacy sometimes but I guess I am just using it as a bank account right now with usdc

I would personally like it if visa/stripe etc. middleman's could be cut preferably, its honestly insane how we still can't figure that issue of middleman taking cuts etc.

Maybe the issue isn't technological but regulatory

But overall I agree that crypto/ especially the web3 mostly is a scam.

bgwalter•35m ago
Yep, he saw the Mamdani win and Vance gave new marching orders on X by pretending to care about jobs, housing etc.

Sacks was one of the most prominent whiners on X asking for the bail out the Silicon Valley Bank. He is lying, just as the all-in podcast was lying before Trump's election and then dropped the masks.

coliveira•1h ago
Yes, the whole play by OpenAI is to raise enormous amounts of money as quickly as possible from as many people and companies as they can. Their only real goal is to put themselves in a position as the "indispensable company" that is too big to fail and will bring every AI investment to its knees if not supported by the government.
dangus•1h ago
You don’t even have to read the article. There is no such thing as a CEO held accountable.

Just look at Elon’s insane pay package, approved in a landslide. The skulls of the average shareholder must echo like a cave.

And the rich accuse the poor of their poverty being their own fault, because they are just being irresponsible, making bad decisions, and spending unwisely. They should look in the mirror.

bigstrat2003•1h ago
Yeah, a CEO being "held accountable" looks like "we will pay you enormous sums of money to leave the company". Just once I would like to see the CEO of some big corp face actual consequences for running the company badly, but I'm not holding my breath.
the__alchemist•1h ago
Are you sure you can't think of any examples?
0_____0•1h ago
May I introduce you to the Enron scandal?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling

dylan604•39m ago
SBF was convicted and sentenced to 25 years.
coliveira•1h ago
Investors in companies such as Tesla are adept of the greater fool theory. As long as somebody else will pay more for the useless shares, they'll continue to support the company.
riku_iki•1h ago
CEOs who fraud superrich totally go to jail.
dylan604•41m ago
but if you play your cards right, you can then get pardoned.
riku_iki•37m ago
Playing cards right means do not upset superrich. Robbing taxpayers and pension funds is Ok.
dvt•51m ago
> The skulls of the average shareholder must echo like a cave.

Given you calling these people stupid, I'd be shocked if you out-earned them over the past 15 years[1]. And if your counter-argument will be "that's a bad yardstick" then what yardstick shall we use? I own no TSLA stock, nor do I particularly like Musk, but this weird irrational hatred just doesn't seem to contribute anything other than reiterating the (oh so boring) liberal "Musk bad" zeitgeist talking points.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/roe

phelddagrif•44m ago
yes yes my favorite objective the measure of intelligence: earnings yield
dvt•37m ago
If you're a trader, isn't the whole idea maximizing your earnings yield? My point was that gp called these people stupid, but the numbers show they're smart.
oakejp12•29m ago
Doesn’t seem pretty boring and unreasonable to me to hate a Nazi and who’s contributing to building a mechahilter.

At least, these were previously American values to hate these people.

dangus•27m ago
Oh you have mistaken me greatly.

This isn’t a liberal/conservative thing.

This is a class conflict thing.

The rich are stupid, just like everyone else. That in itself goes against the narrative that has been woven in our corporate mass media, the accepted narrative that makes it seem as though the rich are meritous and deserve to hoard wealth.

This lie told to all of us, among other lies, protects the rich from having their ill-gotten gains seized by the working people. It’s worth reminding everyone that the riches of the few depend entirely on the labor of the many. They need us more than we need them. Their illusion of the legality of their private ownership of excessive wealth depends on physical protection provided by the working class. If every OpenAI employee quit, if every Sam Altman bodyguard and doorman quit, if every police officer refused to protect the wealthy, these people would be financially worthless. And it really is as simple as that, it wouldn’t even be that hard to shatter the illusion.

To bring this back to being relevant to the article, this illusion is why CEOs will never be held accountable for their actions. Shareholders are part of the pyramid scheme feeding everyone on the very top. Failures of the visionary founder CEO are like failures of Kim Jong Un: certainly not their fault! Your undying support as a shareholder is required to right the ship. Your lack of faith is what caused the failure in the first place.

Of course I haven’t out-earned them, I don’t have an army of accountants and lawyers working due me to dodge taxes and avoid complying with laws, access to private equity investment, insider trading knowledge, and all of my income is W2, so my tax rate is about 4x higher than any billionaire.

stackghost•11m ago
>this weird irrational hatred

He's a literal Nazi who gave the sieg heil salute on national television.

It's not irrational for people to think he's a bad person.

bgwalter•20m ago
The alternative interpretation of the approval of Musk's pay package is that the stakeholders know the goals are unrealistic, but they want to keep the hype going in order to exit quietly.

The Optimus narrative is so obviously a fraud. The things can "dance" and play chess, but they cannot operate in dirt, scrub the kitchen, etc. Even if they succeed, BYD will build a $7000 Optimus. Intimidation of crowds and barking orders at humans (for example for the human to clean the kitchen floor) seem the only somewhat realistic goals.

wronglebowski•1h ago
At what point will the massive investments into AI show a respectable return? With the literal Trillion dollars OpenAI is constantly trying to raise what type of revenue would make that type of investment make sense? Even if you're incredibly bullish I don't know how you make that math work anymore.
rossdavidh•1h ago
As others have said before me: "the hype IS the product".
shiandow•1h ago
That's just a roundabout way of saying they don't expect their money back they just hope to sell before the bubble bursts.
lazide•32m ago
Modern American investing 101.
IAmGraydon•43m ago
Which is the same thing as a scam.
coliveira•1h ago
It's gonna be very fun to watch SA being tried for fraud and deceiving investors about the "future profits" of his startup.
cmrdporcupine•48m ago
Au contraire him and associated people (Musk, among others) will be or are being received as heroes in his class for helping to seemingly break the bargaining power of software engineers and middle/upper-middle class information workers and creatives generally.
lesuorac•47m ago
What fraud?

You should view your contributions as a donation. What donation has a ROI?

lazide•33m ago
The folks who would have to press charges are the folks who would be far too embarrassed to admit how transparent the fraud was they fell for - and nuke any remaining asset value.

It’s why Musk is also safe from similar problems.

cmrdporcupine•50m ago
I think the market & political/economic actors as a whole are justifying these investments on the basis that the benefit is distributed across the labour market generally.

That is, it doesn't matter so much if OpenAI and individual investors get fleeced, if there's a 20-50% labour cost reduction generally for capitalism as a whole (especially cost reduction in our own tech professions, which have been very well paid for a generation) -- Institutional investors and political actors will benefit regardless, by increasing the productivity or rate of exploitation of intellectual / information workers.

jt2190•50m ago
I think it’s hard for individuals to think at the scale of very large institutional investors. They have lakes of money [1][2] that they have to invest in a balanced way, including investing a small percentage into “it probably won’t work but if it does we’ll make a fortune”-type bets. Given the size of these funds even a small percentage is a very large number.

There are also a finite number of opportunities to invest in, so companies that have “buzz” can create a bidding war among potential investors that drives up valuations.

So that’s one possible reason but in the end we can’t know why another investor invests the way they do. We assume that the investor in making a rational decision based on their portfolio. It’s fun to speculate about though, which is why there’s so much press attention.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_pension_scheme...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_wealth_funds...

BolexNOLA•45m ago
The problem is we now have municipal and state governments taking on infrastructural investments (usually via subsidies) and energy companies racing to meet the load demands. There are all kinds of institutions both private and public dumping obscene amounts money into this speculative investment that can’t be a winner for everybody.

What happens to the ones that built for projects that end up failing? Seems to me the only way the story ends is with taxpayers on the hook once again.

jt2190•21m ago
Yes, many of us are investing in this (even indirectly) and may not realize it! The same rules still apply for municipal and state treasuries though: Only a small percentage of the overall portfolio should be allocated to high-risk investments.

Power generation, power grids are more generally useful today and less speculative than trying to win the AI race, so the risk for those types of things is somewhat lower, but there IS risk even in those.

rramadass•45m ago
Why Fears of a Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble Are Growing - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-04/why-ai-bu...

What Would an AI Crash Look Like? - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-12/what-h...

lhoss•1h ago
https://archive.ph/LYVMZ
neilv•1h ago
The article unleashes a burst of expert quotes:

> Experts note chief dealmaker Altman doesn’t have anything to lose. He has repeatedly claimed he does not have a stake in the company, and won’t have a stake even after OpenAI has restructured to become a public benefit corporation. “He has the upside, in a sense, in terms of influence, if it all succeeds,” said Ofer Eldar, a corporate governance professor at the UC Berkeley School of Law. “He's taking all this commitment knowing that he's not going to actually face any consequences because he doesn't have a financial stake.”

> That’s not good corporate governance, according to Jo-Ellen Pozner, a professor of management and entrepreneurship at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business. “We allow leaders that we see as being super pioneering to behave idiosyncratically, and when things move in the opposite direction and somebody has to pay, it's unclear that they're the ones that are going to have to pay,” she said.

> Luria adds: “He can commit to as much as he wants. He can commit to a trillion dollars, ten trillion, a hundred trillion dollars. It doesn't matter. Either he uses it, he renegotiates it, or he walks away.” There are of course more indirect stakes for Altman, experts said, like the reputational blow he’d take if the deals fall apart. But on paper, he’d seemingly be off the hook, they said.

Is an intended takehome message of the article that Altman should invest his own money (with potential loss, or profit), or that he should be given a big compensation deal (maybe like the one Musk just got)?

chemotaxis•49m ago
I've heard it over and over again that the ultimate problem with corporate governance is that the CEOs and the VPs are incentivized to make the stock up at any cost to pad their own coffers. This is basically taken as gospel in many circles.

Now you have a company where the leader at least notionally doesn't have that kind of a financial stake... and we think that's bad? I disagree with Altman on almost everything, but it feels like grasping at straws.

Spivak•7m ago
Well if you have absolutely no stake then you're just playing with other people's money. If your entire stake is tied to the stock price then that's also bad for the known reasons. In a somewhat better governance model I would expect "the board" to reward / punish the CEO financially based on tangible growth metrics. This is how my current CEO gets paid at $dayjob.
layer8•55m ago
> “The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it,” [Sam Altman]

Taking that at face value, it means we would have to invest exponential resources just to get linear improvements. That’s not exactly an optimistic outlook.

noir_lord•48m ago
"A deep incisive point, it seems like you want to turn the entire mass of the solar system into computronium to run ChatGPT27".
sph•45m ago
Grey goo scenario, but the goo are NVIDIA cards used to train LLMs.
an0malous•24m ago
We probably already live in a simulation where an LLM is trying to compute how many “r”s are on “strawberry”
Angostura•14m ago
If so, expect seahorses to never have existed by next week
Neywiny•38m ago
And in his interviews he talks about the near vertical progress they're making. Of course nobody agrees but if those two are true, that's doubly exponential to keep pace.
PeterStuer•27m ago
Even today's frontier models, without any further improvement, have incredible commercial potential. And even when improvements have diminisching returns in terms of result, the merker shifts towards inproved models in a supralinear fashion. So a linear improvement resulting from exponential investment might still net you exponential commercial return.

Also, the LLM space is a red queen environment. Stop investing and you are done.

All that said. IMHO Short to medium term breakthrouhgs will come from hybrid AI systems, the LLM being the universal putty between all users and systems.

otabdeveloper4•14m ago
> have incredible commercial potential

That assertion is unsupported and unproven.

Also, if a commercial use for LLMs is ever found, it will be in the local, personal computing market, not the "cloud".

diamond559•8m ago
It's actually completely been disproven, Open"AI" is burning over ten billion a quarter in net losses. It has no commercial value.
diamond559•9m ago
OpenAI literally lost $12b last quarter, where is this "incredible commercial potential" you are talking about sir?? Is it monetizing the seven second slop memes? Where is the commercial potential you scam artist, stonk pumper?
locknitpicker•25m ago
> Taking that at face value, it means we would have to invest exponential resources just to get linear improvements.

Not necessarily. Approaches such as mixture of experts help lower training costs by covering domains with specialized models.

hiddencost•23m ago
I encourage you to rethink your identity. You are way out of your depth on this, and posting nonsensical things as fact.
diamond559•7m ago
haha good one, so why haven't they done this yet? What are they waiting for? Let's see these super advanced "experts" with "specialized models"!!
djoldman•46m ago
Without knowing the details of these "agreements," everyone is just speculating.

OpenAI as an entity is only in trouble if they've bound themselves completely without any way out.

These "commitments" may just function as memorandums of understanding.

rramadass•39m ago
Bloomberg maps the $8T AI bubble: a closed loop of money and momentum - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michael-lee-4049593_signal-bl...

See also - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45857769

metadope•22m ago
Agreed. The speculation is telling and reflects on the speculators more than reflecting a reality we understand. No one knows what will happen next.

I remember the days when Facebook and Google and other familiar giants were painted with the same brush-- all negative speculation as to them being overvalued and on the cliff's edge of doom, because no one could imagine how they'd survive their obscene overvaluations. How and when will they monetize? How will they ever bring in enough revenue to justify the insane capital spending?

danielmarkbruce•10m ago
Yes, exactly this. No one is releasing the details of the contracts because they aren't real commitments in most cases. They are almost certainly agreements to spend up to x at y pricing mechanism, can be cancelled, etc etc.
baron816•41m ago
I think sama thinks money won’t really exist within the next few years. ASI will take over and create a world of radical abundance. Any revenue OpenAI generates is just to create leverage.
schmichael•31m ago
If any of the super wealthy people actively promoting this fantasy actually believed it they wouldn’t be so worried about amassing wealth today. "Over abundance" talk happened during previous technological revolutions too: at best it was just silly over optimism, at this point I tend to think they’re just obliquely preparing us for underemployment and lower incomes.
marze•39m ago
It will be interesting to see who owns all the compute hardware in a few years, that cost billions now, and what becomes of it. With an expected useful lifetime so short the depreciation rate is insane.
nullpoint420•19m ago
If the bubble pops, the only upside I’m looking forward to is the cheap liquidated hardware
nutjob2•35m ago
> 6 GW of AMD’s chips

Rule no of scam flavored hype: make up impressive sounding units that are opaque and meaningless

crazygringo•32m ago
What a weird take. Of course he won't be on the hook. No CEO is personally financially liable for a company's potential losses nor should they be. Otherwise why would anyone ever take any risks?

He doesn't even have a financial interest in the company, apparently. Obviously, the people who will lose their investments if everything goes south is… the investors. As it's supposed to be.

The implied premise of this headline, that somehow there's something wrong with the fact that a CEO won't be personally financially responsible for potential future losses, is truly bizarre.

IAmGraydon•30m ago
How many actual AI researchers from one of the big AI companies do we have here? I ask because they always seem to be extremely quiet, but I believe there is no way you could be involved in the development of LLMs on a deep level and not understand at this point that the entire thing is a scam. LLMs are very much like a magic trick - they seem truly miraculously to those who don’t understand how the trick is done. But those who designed the trick certainly know it’s deception. They’ve done enough research by this point to see that it’s not intelligent at all, but generates a very good illusion of intelligence by returning text that seems very similar to human output (because that’s what it was trained on).

Useful? Yep - it’s like the best autocomplete you could ever imagine. Paradigm-changing even, as we now have a big chunk of human knowledge in a much more easily searchable format. It’s just not intelligent.

I have to imagine that just like a magic trick, eventually someone will come up with a way to clearly communicate to the layperson how the trick is done. At that point, the illusion collapses.

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