You're 2 weeks late.

Time to put your RRSP / 401k in cash, it's all starting to seriously teeter.

Maybe, but not Oracle. Oracle is friends with the regime: Larry Ellison's kid runs TikTok and has promised to use it to push more conservative content. They'll get bailed out.

So you’re saying there’s an upside?

Finally, been waiting for this moment since I've learned about Oracle. Would be well-deserved for them. Hope Larry Ellison loses his yacht.

Don't they still sell a database product? As long as they don't do the Venture Capital thing and sell off the most promising business units there should still be something for the company to do after the AI bubble implodes. Certainly there will be a lot of layoffs, and maybe even a chapter 13, but I don't think they'll stop existing.

unfortunately their database continues to print money from trapped customers

the "AI" is just an attempt to pump the stock price

OpenAI though can't survive as there's no business at all to fall back on

Oh god, that'd be finally some good news in this recent brutal and sad time period.

> ChatGPT has brand recognition and adoption, but not the best product anymore.

Companies with worse products win all the time based on brand and adoption. So it isn't clear to me at all that Google can win.

Google also has $100 billion in profit each year from it's core business to wait out OpenAI.

If you remove AGI dream from the equation, AI revenues couldn't come close everpresent ads on the internet which Google has monopoly over, and LLM directly affects Google core business.

Also Google doesn't have great business reputation for sticking to their APIs, so they need to be lot better than open model always, which it is now but my guess would be it wouldn't be for long.

Unless I’m missing something, Google doesn’t really have the “chat journal” aspect that ChatGPT has. It’s just a search engine.

For me personally this is a major feature.

What is the cost of delivering regular search results vs. answering an AI chat question? How do you sell ads through each of these channels?

If you consider those angles you'll see that Google does not want AI chat to replace Google search any time soon. Google is being dragged into this kicking and screaming. They are damned if they do, and damned if they don't.

You can get a $20 OpenAI subscription for some serious usage.

Google has no such thing for Gemini, it's subscriptions are brain-dead, expensive bundled with 2 TB of storage and other shit that I don't want.

> billions of dollars that they dont even have

Companies don't ever "have" things, they are themselves things that people have. There isn't a fundamental difference between taking a loan smaller than their total capitalization or spend some money they have liquid at the bank. It's both taking money from the shareholders and spending on something.

That said, yes that investment is stupid and deserves quotes around the word. But making risky investments when the company is operating in the red isn't stupid at all... it's just that this one isn't risky, it's certainly bad.

Wait until you discover that the bank doesn't have those dollars in your account.

If you can borrow money at X% and make (X+1)% on that money, you do that and invest it. As an individual you can do that by buying stocks on margin.

I so desperately want to make a snide comment about foreseeing the future but the reality is the CapX is so muddied that I’m afraid everyone is going to feel it.

Oracle doesn't own the GPUs themselves and may hold as little as 10% of the Stargate bag.

Please let it be true.

Traditionally one is supposed to return money you don’t have anything better to do with to shareholders in dividends, but that is sadly out of fashion with tech companies.

FT Alphaville is the (very good) blog-style section of the FT, so this point is meant slightly tongue-in-cheek, as Bryce hints at himself.

I mean that doesn’t have a $0 cost.

So you shorted Oracle and made money?