Do you not see the irony in this? "The two of you should make peace in our language, or it's fake."
Even if the argument is made that the USA is involved in the war and should be a party to the plan (it "isn't", except "it is"), the peace plan should've been written in Ukrainian and Russian, and only then translated to English as appropriate.
Seriously, that this is even being considered as a detractor from peace is highly specious.
Perhaps you should point out that the language of the peace plan wasn't written in Ukrainian, translated into Russian, and then into English. That'd probably be acceptable, right?
Also the conflict still didn't stop, I don't see how America is somehow more capable of doing something when they didn't do anything?
But not reasonable.
- Ukraine gives up everything they've lost thus far.
- Ukraine must surrender additional territory.
- Ukraine has to cull its military strength.
- It sets up Ukraine to fail to be able to defend itself when the next war begins and does nothing to prevent Russia from restarting the war.
- Russia sanctions end, Russia is invited back to the international stage without reprocussuons or restitution
- It rather grossly calls on America to invest significant money and resources in Russia's tech industry as restitution.
I've heard analysts say that Trump wants this so he can say he ended both the Israel/Palestine conflict as well as the Russia/Ukraine conflict. It's a total abdication by the loser of their sovereignty all for a feather in Trump's crown.
Ukraine has been given an ultimatum to accept this deal by Thanksgiving (a US holiday) or lose all American support. Including advanced warning of Russian attacks from US intelligence. We wouldn't tell them the Russians are coming. A total and complete shut down of US support such that Ukraine is completely blinded.
Abandoning Ukraine will only save money if the US also abandons NATO. After this the Baltic states are next.
If the USA had been punished in the same manner for its atrocities in Iraq and Afghanistan, would we have had the rest of the disaster unfold?
And we see the end result of this line of thought in Gaza, where literally millions of human beings lives have been irreversibly damaged for generations, because someone decided to punish their enemy at massive scales. And as we can see in the case of Gaza, this is no guarantee of peace, whatsoever. This line of thought has led to genocide and ethnic cleansing at massive scales.
And, it simply does not work. Period. There are generations of new terrorists who want vengeance in the Gaza/Israel war, just as vehemently as Americans do, for the Ukraine/Russia war. These children will only be converted back to peace-makers if their lives are _improved_ by the peace plan, not made worse, and there is a long, long road ahead in both wars, for all parties, to attain that condition.
At some point, making peace means putting aside any aggression-based arguments and just getting on with the program to bring both sides together, to stop the fighting and start the economic unity required to keep things peaceful.
This peace plan seems like an attempt to do just that, so it should be supported. After all, it does contain triggers that will re-ignite the war machine again - and, it could be argued that should those triggers be activated, the war would be more justifiable to the world community, and those who seek a wider, escalated war against Russia, will get their fulfilment if this plan is betrayed. This peace plan would be the first step towards greater forms of punishment - but it works for both sides. If Putin violates the agreement - Russia comes under attack by the entire world. If Ukraine's leadership violates the agreement, Russia gets cart blanche to continue its dismantling of the Ukrainian state. Therefore, the peace-makers must have the reins in lieu of the warmongers, as of now.
(Disclaimer: I've read the peace plan, have Ukrainian and Russian friends in my circles who are veterans from the conflict, and their opinion is: yes, it is far past the point where the aggressive warrior narcissists need to be ignored and statesmen and diplomats need to work harder to re-establish peace between the two nations. I personally feel that this plan has to proceed, or else the entire world is going to see the conflict expand to our own borders. This means the hyper-actualisation of warrior narcissism needs to stop, and civilisation-building economic tools need to be better applied - by all parties - to ensure the region is rebuilt again. Trust must be restored through economic unity, first and foremost - that is what this plan aims to achieve.)
It's not "if", it's "when". Russians negotiates in bad faith, always. They violates agreements for centuries. Putin also lied many times.
West will do nothing meaningful to stop them and they know it.
That is why we should not push Ukrainians to accept proposed capitulation "deal" from Kremlin.
Because the West is guilty of far worse war crimes in the past 50 years, and the whole world knows this. To call Russia to the table for these wars, sets the precedent for other nations to do exactly the same for the USA, the UK, and their allies.[0]
Plus, there's that whole "nuclear annihilation" aspect to consider.
It's not capitulation. It is an attempt to attain peace and economic stability for the region in a way which will prevent the conflict from flaring up again in the near future.
Have you actually read the details of the peace plan, or are you going by media reports, exclusively? Be honest with yourself about this if you wish to discuss it further.
[0] I'm all for prosecution of Russian war crimes, if it leads to the exact same procedures being applied to the USA and its allies. The world is sick of war-monger nations getting away with mass murder.
"Peace for our time!" Some people skipped history lessons. Russia is not winning the war. To give them Ukrainian capitulation is to reward for starting a war.
>> Because the West is guilty of far worse war crimes in the past 50 years, and the whole world knows this.
Typical russian whataboutism. But I bite. What crimes west did in past 30 years? Russia started war in Afghanistan, invaded Syria, Georgia, Ukraine.
>> the details of the peace plan
Nothing there about real punishment russia will get when the next invasion/annexion is going to be.
Just a reminder, russia lost to Ichkeria, signed a peace treaty with Chechen. Guess what happened next? Russians always lie.
Or perhaps you think the USA is infallible and should be able to murder whoever its ruling class deems worthy.
>Nothing there about real punishment russia will get when the next invasion/annexion is going to be.
Untrue. If Russia violates the agreement, the door is open for the rest of the world to wage wholesale war on it. You clearly have not read the terms.
Open by whom? And btw, it is already open, just no one wants to send troops to Ukraine except North Korea.
>> The destruction of Afghanistan.
Conveniently forgot a decade of russian occupation of Afghanistan.
>>The destruction of Libia
Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who controls east part of the country is backed up by Russia.
In other African countries multiple warlords are backed up by russia.
>> The support of Israels' genocide of Gaza.
Russia arms different forces around Israel as well.
And list goes on.
>>invasion of Iraq and the murder of 5% of its population - which still suffers, day by day
5% is another lie, not backed by data. Just one more point you may be simply a russian-backed agent tasked to share their narratives.
Every single day for decades now Iraqi mothers have given birth to still-born children - 50% of children born in Baghdad - because of the US' use of depleted uranium on the battlefield - a war crime if any other nation were to do it.
https://psr.org/resources/body-count/
>russian-backed agent
This is about as productive as me calling you a bootlicker for empire, which I won't do. I'm not a Russian - I'm simply a member of a co-criminal state in the absolutely phony, criminal 'war on terror', who is willing to hold my government accountable for the heinous crimes committed in my name. Why are you not so willing to take responsibility for our nations war crimes?
50% still-born children is also fake considering fertility rate 4+ for decade after the war.
You don't need to be a russian to share RT narratives. Also that is what a russian spy will say: "I'm not an agent" because, you know, russians always lie.
Not the person you replied to, but this isn't constructive. Correctly pointing out hypocrisy/double standards is very pertinent to the discussion, and shouldn't be dismissed as "whataboutism". Making assumptions about someone who disagrees with you -- in this case, the assumption that he/she is a Kremlin sympathiser -- is irrelevant at best and insulting at worst.
Whataboutism leads to such odd rhetorical distractions. This isn't a deal about Gaza, Afghanistan, or Iraq, and the only reason to discuss them is to distract from Russia's military aggression.
I'd rather see ALL war crimes prosecuted - American, Russian, Israeli, Palestinian, and on and on.
But we all know that is never going to happen for as long as the worlds biggest thug nations refuse to allow the people of the world to see such justice.
So, criminal code is not necessary anymore? That is your logic? As someone might escape from the justice, why do we need that legislation at all?
Let’s start with the biggest violators, first. That’s the USA. And then we will have the tools to go after Russia and the others.
What?
And the argument for supporting Ukraine is not to punish anyone. It’s to avoid rewarding (and thus normalizing) aggression and the violation of territorial integrity, a core principle on which the UN is founded.
The main concept in 20th century post-ww2 international relations was the prohibition of aggression to take land. Ending 19th century concepts like “spheres of influence “ that grant “great powers” the right to change borders by force.
A very tenuous position to maintain, given the extreme violations of territorial integrity enacted by other members of the UN's security council.
The world is very complex and things are rarely perfect. We make incremental progress aiming for ideals, but still dealing with the world as it is.
>but my ww1!
Its the 21st Century, we are decades removed from that era.
Again you don't understand what you talking about. There are no negotiations. At all. There is only a proposition for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia: the reduction of the Ukrainian army by more than half, the near-legal recognition of the captured territories as Russian, and so on.
Such is the nature of business, and war is the dirtiest business of them all.
Russia is a nuclear state, and will in no rational scenario ever "come under attack by the entire world" due to the inevitable consequences. On the other hand, manufacturing casus belli again and invading Ukraine in a few years is an obvious outcome.
It looks like you completely don't understand what you are talking about. This plan just lets Russia a chance to accumulate more resources for further attacks on Ukraine. Why? Because there is no any guarantee for Ukraine against future Russia's aggression. Why? Because Russia will never agree with such guarantee for Ukraine. Russian plan is completely destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state.
I am from Ukraine. That is why I am confident I know that for sure.
This deal is an invite for president Xi to take back Taiwan and whatever territory he wants.
1. A massive nuclear power
2. On the border of China
3. Willing to take risks for geopolitical gain that the Europeans would never dream of
4. A natural enemy of China since China claims (unofficially) large areas of Siberia including Vladivostok (their only major port on the Pacific).
If Russia were an ally, that would put our alliance to the north, east, and south of China. More importantly it would put the threat of a land based attack on the table which is currently not the case.
If you want to ally with Russia, you must destroy the Russian Imperialist regime first, represented by Putin and FSB. Ukraine is helping with that. Then free and democratic Russia will become your ally. But if you don't crush the Russian imperialists, they will crush you.
Russia and China aren't exactly good friends, but this is a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" situation. The US is not popular with either of them.
> China would absolutely not be okay with the US on its doorstep
Yes, that's precisely the point. You think we should only do things that China approves of?
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/27/nx-s1-5127737/losing-gps-woul...
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/losing...
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.2161-4296....
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/html/tr/ADA057265/
https://www.ion.org/publications/abstract.cfm?articleID=1201...
USG is in this position for a few reasons:
* It is actually technologically difficult to create GPS equivalent INS (or similar system). Everyone is pursuing this, not just USG/DOD. The Chinese are too for sure.
* It is true that the DoD became somewhat over reliant on GPS from a training and doctrine perspective. While they continued to develop and buy systems and munitions with INS backup, you can't operate with near total air/space/cyber dominance for ~2 decades without it somehow effecting your culture
* The war in Ukraine has been a catalyst for all sorts of technological changes, both in the West, but all across the world.
Fortunately someone recently posted a real technological wonder - the F-14 cpu, old timers were messing with multithreaded compute while I was muddling along learning pong line by line from a hobbyist magazine.
> We will not fare any better than Ukraine relying on tech like this.
Ukraine is faring amazing well, aren’t they?
Russia controls a fraction of the territory, has suffered a million casualties, and lost many many armored vehicles and combat aircraft.
It's a fairly impressive result for the country that was expected to collapse in a week or two.
Russia wanted to wipe Ukraine off the map, literally. By simply existing Ukraine is winning.
GPS isn't poorly designed - it's well designed within its design constraints, which those systems share.
* https://rntfnd.org/wp-content/uploads/National-Timing-Resili...
A roadmap was published in 2021:
* https://www.transportation.gov/pnt/national-timing-resilienc...
And also from 2021, NATIONAL R&D PLAN FOR POSITIONING, NAVIGATION, AND TIMING RESILIENCE:
* https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021...
The simplest solution is to simply to resurrect the Loran infrastructure that the US (and others) run until the 2000s. The Koreans have been running eLoran for a while, and the UK and France are teaming up as well:
* https://insidegnss.com/uk-and-france-renew-ties-resilient-pn...
* https://rntfnd.org/2025/11/12/s-korea-leads-meeting-with-u-k...
Chinas has had a completely built out network (including fibre networks for high-precision timing) for over a year:
* https://rntfnd.org/2024/10/03/china-completes-national-elora...
This is not rocket surgery: a working system that can giver you continent-wide coverage can be up and running a few years, with little technical risk (there's already kit available).
Throwing some money at the problem and instructing the DOT/DHS/whomever to issue an RFI/RFP would go a long way to moving the ball forward.
They don't particularly help with striking Chinese assets. Which is what the DoD funding is primarily about.
Why not use China's own Loran (and BeiDou) system against them?
If that was a contingency, it would just play into the the whole cyber/information/electronic/space domains aspects of the whole "multi-domain" stuff.
Surely both China and the US have contingencies in place to try to determine if the opposing side is exploiting their PNT systems, and then figure out ways to subvert that in various ways.
Parts of the GPS signal are encrypted to be only useful for the military. The result is that civilian systems an average 4.9 meters of accuracy, while the military is precise to something like a meter instead. But that extra accuracy doesn't help if the signal is jammed.
I remember the capability coming as a surprise in 1990, but you're right that Reagan announced that civilian access would happen back in 1983.
Now I don't know if I was misremembering, or if Iraq was simply unaware of the technology, or whether that announcement was for access at some future date.
I do remember discussing GPS on sci.physics in the mid-90s though. Where I learned that GPS is the only commercial technology that has to take general relativity into account. Clocks on Earth run measurably slower than clocks at the altitude of GPS satellites, and the effect is big enough that GPS has to correct for it.
Looking back at the history, the tanks began to go into the Saudi desert in August of 1990. They then launched their massive assault on Feb 24, 1991. And caught the Iraqis completely flatfooted. With the tanks moving faster than the news of the tanks for several hours.
Before KAL 007, GPS was unaffordable to most users, and not widely developed commercially because there was still uncertainty about whether it would remain available in the long run.
A +20dB gain means that the jammer is going to need roughly 100x its current power output to maintain the same effectiveness. An adversary ramping their transmitter by this much would turn into a blazing hot target in terms of electronic warfare. There are entire classes of weapons designed to lock directly onto signals like this. The AGM-88 is an example.
This is even worse in Ukraine, where a lot of "precision munitions" are cobbled together from civilian parts and duct tape, jammers are cheap and plentiful, and anti-radiation missiles are unicorns.
If US ever gets into a serious near-peer war, the Pentagon may have to resort to doing the same thing Ukraine does. Mass produce inferior but easy-to-scale weapons to address the growing munition shortages.
The Pentagon understands this. This is why moves are made in that direction.
Like the M982 Excalibur by Raytheon which is pretty much useless now in Ukraine.
Now, does it have a semi-reliable IMU fallback? GPS jamming/spoofing detection, an IMU that survives the conditions? Classified. Best case, you can partially un-fuck the performance with just a software fix.
6% sounds not effective at all. Especially considering a price tag, which is x30+ of regular shell.
"What would you do if GPS went out, permanently?"
The whole room collectively didn't want to think about it. There doesn't appear to be a plan. We've collectively put all our eggs in one basket.
IFR was designed long before GPS and for the most part, GPS has been shoehorned into the “old” system. VORs around the country are still “primary” for navigations; airways are still primarily defined around VOR radials; and approach plates to large airports have plenty of non-GPS precision approaches. (Some smaller GA-only airfields that recently got IFR approaches might be WAAS/GPS only).
Losing GPS might increase workload for some sectors (en route sectors who won’t be able to clear aircraft direct to waypoints) but not likely TRACON who are vectoring aircraft on pre-defined approach plates.
If you pick a random commercial flight on your favourite flight tracker and check it’s route, 99% of the waypoints on it are defined as VOR intersections, not GPS coordinates. (The remaining 1% are likely en-route waypoints and not in the departure/approach area).
Also, the instrument proficiency requirements for pilots require multiple approach types to be logged every 6 months so they are definitely capable of non-GPS approaches.
phplovesong•2mo ago
jayknight•2mo ago
no paywall: https://www.wsj.com/tech/the-pentagon-cant-trust-gps-anymore...
Kurd•2mo ago