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How wealth dies

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/11/02/314-how-wealth-dies/
32•martinlaz•43m ago

Comments

0xWTF•19m ago
Ok, this seems like a good post. At the end of the day, what do I, as a single investor, do? I have a $300,000 mortgage on a house presently worth $1M. I have $300,000 cash and an open eTrade account.

What do I do with the cash?

A) keep it as cash

B) Pay off the mortgage

C) Buy some QQQ

D) Buy some T-notes

E) there is no E. I am a simple man. Let's start with a simple solution.

DaveZale•10m ago
maybe learn about options. do some practice trading. Theory is one thing, patience and common sense are other things. Above all be very, very careful, but have fun.

The practice part is important but when you are comfortable, nibble a little with small amounts.

drcode•5m ago
Yeah, my rule when I got started was "If I ever lose a lifetime aggregated $3000 in the markets, then the markets are not for me". Then once you're ahead in the markets, it's fine to continue trading.

(Note: I ended up breaking my rule by continuing to trade after losing $5000, but then did great in the markets anyway in the long run LOL)

barbazoo•10m ago
No one can give you an answer to this but you because it depends on what you value.
apsurd•9m ago
C. it's the only one that has you in the arena. There's no guaranteed outcome, but money itself is a team-sport.

I'm a simple man myself, so I'm answering in order to verify my own reasoning.

A. will have negative returns from inflation. D. defends against inflation but is too conservative. B. There's arguably negative value in holding more equity in terms of opportunity cost since you already have > 200% position in equity. source: I believe this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4H9LL7A-nQ

parliament32•8m ago
Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
drcode•8m ago
Whatever you decide, be aware of the following:

- You will sleep 5% better every night from here on out if your mortgage is paid off

- You'll sleep 5% worse every night from here on out if you have 300k riding in the markets

mcny•8m ago
I don't have any answers but you definitely need some cash. How much? I have no idea.

With the rest, I would put some in a vanguard account. And then invest where? I want to say index funds but the market is very strange. The biggest companies have too much wealth soaked up. Is this sustainable? Is this a bubble? Who knows...

chhxdjsj•7m ago
E) bitcoin
cyberax•2m ago
I would buy some physical gold as the ultimate hedge (don't invest ALL of you money!), and invest everything else in some highly rated fund. Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.

Trading yourself is just not worth it. You'll lose money long-term. An exception here is if you want to hold shares of a company long-term as a form of investment.

If your mortgage is a fixed rate at a reasonable interest, then keep it. If there's a high inflation episode, you'll be able to benefit from it.

preem_palver•1m ago
Keep 12 months living expenses in cash/t-bills. Depending on your age, increase to 24 mos if kids etc

If cash remaining -> if mortgage rate >4% pay down mortgage (locking in 4%+ yield). If you want to average 50% towards mortgage 50% VOO (S&P Index fund)

mkoubaa•12m ago
Posts like this make me want to hurry up and buy a farm
rout39574•6m ago
Ahh, we can all buy the farm together. ;)

I've been watching my investment accounts, particularly the TSLA fraction, and see-sawing between "This has got to collapse soon, I should..." and "You cannot time the market, idiot".

I'm dissatisfied with the inaction, but I can't come up with a coherent theory about how I should act... Bleah.

cyberax•8m ago
> On this basis, global material prosperity has grown by 25% since 2004, which is nowhere near claimed “growth” of 96% in real GDP over that period. Moreover, the 25% rise in aggregate prosperity has been matched by the rise in population numbers over those twenty years.

This assumes that the GDP growth and the material prosperity are in a simple linear relation. I don't think this makes sense.

A small solar panel that can charge battery-powered night lights and a couple of cell phones produces negligible energy. Just a few minutes of air-conditioning consumption for a house in the US. Yet it can completely transform the life of households in an African town.

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How wealth dies

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/11/02/314-how-wealth-dies/
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