[0] - https://www.tepu.org.tw/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/%E5%8F%B0...
The fact that the DPP is contravening one of it's core tenets since it was founded in 1986 is a massive policy shift, as a major reason the party was formed was due to mass opposition to the Lungmen nuclear project.
It's the equivalent of the modern DNC choosing to drop support for the ACA or the modern GOP choosing to support Roe vs Wade.
A "sentiment" is just manufactured by politicians and the media. I would say if you are one of the only place who can build and run a 2nm process node, a nuclear power plant should not scare you too much.
The DPP has been very dumb regarding pure economic policies. This is one of the reason they now have western countries level growth.
They got into the whole renewable energy narrative but they forgot one of the reason for the success of Taiwan is due to the fact that they largely subsidized energy.
Electricity in Tawain was (or still is?) incredibly cheap and they even subsidized gas.
For what it’s worth, I’ve personally walked around the nuclear containment area on Orchid island and swam in the waters around it. It’s a well managed and nice place.
NoMoreNicksLeft•1mo ago
engineer_22•1mo ago
anvandare•1mo ago
To paraphrase Thucydides: the nuclear capable countries do what they want, and the non-nuclear countries suffer what they must.
throwaway198846•1mo ago
This isn't ironclad as some people believe. There were multiple attacks on nuclear nations from non-nuclear in the last 2 years.
credit_guy•1mo ago
In the particular case of Taiwan, how would sheltered pursuit look like? The US would allow Taiwan to seek nuclear capability. But China would certainly see this as a reason to strike. I think a lot of the world would understand and accept a Chinese preemptive strike if China could show evidence that Taiwan was trying to acquire nukes, and the IAEA concurred.
NoMoreNicksLeft•1mo ago
China already sees a reason to strike. Right now, it's about whether Taiwan has a deterrent to them doing so.
>In the nuclear proliferation literature there is the concept of "sheltered pursuit". One of the nuclear powers is basically allowing you to disregard the NPT, and pursue nuclear weapons.
Or you develop everything but the core, some safe design that needs no testing (Trinity worked correctly on the first try, obviously. Something that needs a small core, minimum plut. This can be done in a way (and quickly enough) that you can hope to keep it secret from espionage.
Then you just make sure you have enough spent fuel that when you're ready for that part, you can get 3+ cores' worth in a hurry. Yes, the inspectors will catch on, but not before everything's done. Then you tell the inspectors to fuck off. Crisis averted.
>I think a lot of the world would understand and accept a Chinese preemptive strike if China could show evidence that Taiwan was trying to acquire nukes,
Personally, I think it's a shame that Ukraine didn't trade a couple dozen to Taiwan back in the 90s, in exchange for help rejiggering the electronics on their own nukes. Both nations could have walked away with a couple dozen, and the world would be far more peaceful today.
credit_guy•1mo ago
Lots of things about nuclear weapons are classified, but we can use some declassified numbers from the Manhattan project. The ratio of uranium fuel to plutonium end result was about 4000 to 1 [1].
At 6.2 kg per core, 3 cores would require 74 tons of uranium. That's about 50% more than what a plant like the Maanshan nuclear power plant (the one we are talking about here) would burn in one year. Except, or course, that commercial reactors burn uranium to a high degree, so the spent fuel is exactly worthless for weapons purposes. You need to burn the fuel 10 times less to have a chance to extract weapons grade Plutonium. So, that dash for 3 bombs would take 15 years, if by some miracle you could use the reactors 100% of the time only for the purpose of creating spent fuel for the plutonium production. Of course, the problem is that you'd need to buy that fuel from some suppliers, and the suppliers are going to ask questions why you are burning 10 times more fuel then you should (they are most likely legally obligated to report you if they suspect anything non-kosher is going on).[1]https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/manhattan-project-science-a...
NoMoreNicksLeft•1mo ago
Your other numbers check out though, best I can tell.
sunshine-o•1mo ago