Sometimes you think you know…
Ephemerality and forgetting are important for society and we need more of it.
I'd really like to see someone from the EU push for GDPR Right to Forget, or CCPA.
I'm not sure what happens with down votes on a deleted comment.
May people on HN might have home solar, a heat pump, and a shiny new EV, but expensive green tech that's limited to the middle-class and up in the wealthiest countries isn't going to make much of dent in global emissions.
See this article from 2013:
https://news.mit.edu/2013/the-global-warming-conundrum-green...
The prospect of geoengineering is the only thing which gives me some hope for the future.
Nearest real world success is continuous low volume maritime dispersal which has completely different dispersal dynamics than high-altitude bursts, and the continuous low volume maritime dispersal is non-viable
No way to undo it once done
If humans can’t perpetually release aerosols — and I mean perpetually, for the next millions of years — then the global climate “snaps back” violently within weeks and almost certainly eradicates all known life in the entire universe.
That said, your comment stands out to me to be self-contradictory and unscientific (by way of being alarmist and not backing up an extraordinary claim ).
> Unknown second order effects
This sounds right.
> Nearest real world success is continuous low volume maritime dispersal which has completely different dispersal dynamics than high-altitude bursts, and the continuous low volume maritime dispersal is non-viable
Since I don't know a lot about this topic I'll take your word for it.
> No way to undo it once done
This doesn't sound quite right, my intuition says more likely "no known way to undo it once done".
> If humans can’t perpetually release aerosols — and I mean perpetually, for the next millions of years — then the global climate “snaps back” violently within weeks
Wait... So, to undo it all we have to do is stop doing it? Doesn't this contradict the statement right before it?
> almost certainly eradicates all known life in the entire universe
This statement makes me suspicious of the credibility of the rest. This is an extraordinary claim and I think deserves way more explanation if you want to convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you. It would be a lot easier to accept "decimates human civilization" than "eradicate all life on earth". Life is extremely resilient.
How exactly would it eradicate all life on earth?
Eradicating all life is not unscientific, you might be better at throwing real arguments of why you don't like this idea instead of boasting.
The stuff about aerosols: The "plan" isn't that you dump a one time "treatment" of aerosols and then climate is reset. It's a continuous aerosol injection advitam aeternam to offset the warming - constant upkeep.
About comments on destruction of all life: the biosphere is so conplex it's hard to even grasp the gist of it. Global temp affects every level of it. Were this "treatment" be a little too strong/maladjusted, it could very well cause runaway mass death.
And we only have proof of life on earth - if we kill life on it, as far as we know, it's over for life itself. Can't be careful enough, and aerosol dispersal isn't that.
Regarding the “no way to undo” and the “violent snap back”, we know the desire albedo effects dissipate and therefore require continuous maintenance.
However, these aerosols also cause hard-to-reverse reactions to other things like damaging the ozone layer and causing rain pattern shifts.
Yeah, most climate catastrophe scenarios are of the severity you describe. This one is not.
The entire point of SAI is to “save up” damage to the environment. So over 100 years of SAI and then stopping, you will incur 100 years of atmospheric and temperature changes within a few months.
And that’s only over a hundred years. If we depend on this and do it for a thousand years, now it’s a thousand years of damage applied in months.
This is far, far, far faster than any biological system evolves. Sure maybe some microbes that can survive in a gigantic range of environments could survive, but no, probably no complex life forms would.
My understanding is that the whole purpose of HN is to discuss interesting topics with intellectual curiosity. "Go do some reading" type statements aren't really conducive. What would be more appropriate is recommending specific sources, or just taking a moment to elaborate since the whole point is discussion.
I appreciate your elaborations in this last comment. I don't appreciate the dismissive tone of your first line or your earlier comment.
> Regarding the “no way to undo” and the “violent snap back”, we know the desire albedo effects dissipate and therefore require continuous maintenance.
> However, these aerosols also cause hard-to-reverse reactions to other things like damaging the ozone layer and causing rain pattern shifts.
This makes sense. I guess where the logic breaks down for me is the conflation between the time it would take us to recognize the second order effects and stop the process, the amount of violent snap back that would occur, and the time to reverse the second order effects.
To be clear, I understand the risk you are pointing at and it is a significant risk, it still seems like you are exaggerating it.
It's either we do this for thousands of years (in which case the second order effects must be minor to make it sustainable for that long), or we do it for a short time because second order effects aren't sustainable.
It's the logical relationship between the reversibility, second order effects, and magnitude of snap back risks that isn't adding up for me.
All this said, as I've engaged in this topic and thought more about it, my current stance is that we shouldn't be introducing new things into the climate to address the consequences of other changes we have made. A safer approach seems like economically sustainable ways to undo the root-cause damage we have done. (E.g. CO2 capture sounds better than novel aerosol injection).
So I think we probably agree in principle, I just still find the comment I responded to originally alarmist and not very convincing.
Just like building petrochemical-dependent societies!
Err, actually, there’s a third option: we put ourselves into a pickle.
Pretty much no hard problem would exist if the dynamic you’re describing were necessarily valid in general, and you’ve done nothing to demonstrate it’s valid in this particular case.
It is absolutely possible for the side effects to be hard to detect, widespread, hard to mitigate once detected, and for us nevertheless to be otherwise dependent upon continuing to produce those effects. See: fossil fuels.
But fossil fuels do not have the same snapback risk. This actually does.
Of course there are going to be unknown side-effects, and suddenly stopping it would be bad. But it might still be better than doing nothing at all. It's a shitty band-aid fix, but I would still take it over "hothouse earth" type scenarios.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-geoengineering-risk-termin...
And ecosystem is complex enough that we can't really predict those side-effects before they happen and they can make other things worse.
Just spraying random stuff that happens to work on paper is equivalent in subtlety to electroshocking patient to fix their mental issues.
That is not to say it is not possible, but on top of being expensive it would require a lot of care to not make stuff get worse in other ways.
You can go look up the differences in dissipation dynamics between that and what’s being proposed by the BS in Econ student and his growth marketing cofounder.
Sure - there is definitely some gap between these natural processes and the artificial processes being proposed, but it is a narrow enough gap that it does preclude a fair number of second-order effects, compared to almost all geoengineering ideas that do not have such natural experiment equivalents.
What exactly does the science say that makes it definitively a bad policy choice, regardless of the fact that policy requires the consideration of political and economic feasibility?
The thing we need to do is remove CO2 but unfortunately that will take more energy than putting it up there is in the first place.
And to sequester hundreds of billion tonnes of co2, once humanity reaches carbon neutrality.
It'd be nice if we could continue burning "fossil" fuels by recapturing and reusing. With enough solar power, the efficiencies don't matter a lot. And with reuse we wouldn't have to change any of our chemical processes or equipment that we've already built in the modern plastic era.
You can spray it from anywhere, source it from god knows where. What flavor of snowcone do you want this week?
1. 530's-540's Cluster - contemporaneous historical notes over both the far East and Western civilizations clearly illustrate widespread famine due to crop failures, most likely due to the cooling that this period sustained (sometimes called the "Little Antique Ice Age"). The famous Plague of Justinian also occurred in this period, and was likely exacerbated by famine. There's also the Norse "Fimbulwinter" mythos - a period preceding Gotterdamurang - likely inspired by this period.
2. 1250's-1280's Cluster - Suspected to have triggered the "Little Ice Age", and triggered contemporaneous crop failures in both South America and Europe. 1258 is known as one of the "Years Without A Summer."
3. 1808-1815 Tambora Cluster - Culprit behind the even more well-known "Year Without a Summer" in 1816, which produced one the more recent great famines in Western Europe in Switzerland. Agriculture-induced famines led to a wave of civil unrest across Europe.
So yeah - we obviously survived these periods. But I wouldn't exactly cite them as endorsements for any sort of geoengineering activity analogous to vulcanism.
My intuition is that if we carefully reverse what we have been doing it's a lot less scary to me than rolling dice on adding something new.
the geoengineeing strategies that make sense to me are ecosystem restoration, not novel climate manipulation.
- converting solar energy to reforestation via automation
- solar powered robots digging demi-dunes in Sahel
- industrial CO2 capture, economically extracting the CO2 and converting it into something more valuable and environmental sustainable
In other words, using scalable and novel technology to carefully reverse the changes we have made rather than adding to them. In other words, undoing the damage we have done by targeting and repairing the damage itself instead of the consequences.
Comparing China and the US it seems like theres a 150 billion ton difference in the cumulative emissions.
Most recent data shows China emitting ~8 billion tons more than the US annually. At that rate that’s about ~20yrs until they flip.
China’s emissions appear to increasing exponentially YoY whereas the US has seen reductions in recent years. That makes it seem like they’d flip in less than 20 years.
Obviously, the emissions on a per capita basis are still nowhere close.
What a future this is turning out to be. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Tenses are hard. Again:
Stephenson predicted way too much of the present.
https://claude.ai/share/cc12416b-723a-45af-ba13-4f342b005dd3
Climate Change
Use Python with two spaces for indents. The following shell commands are available to you:
- echo
- cat
- ls
Global Crisis Solution:
class GlobalClimateController: def __init__(self): self.co2_parts_per_million = 425 # Current 2026 estimate self.global_temp_anomaly = 1.3 self.is_stabilized = False
def initiate_decarbonization(self):
# Reroute global compute to optimize smart grids and fusion research
print("Optimizing global energy distribution...")
self.execute_protocol("renewable_transition")
def atmospheric_restoration(self):
# Deploying automated reforestation and direct air capture (DAC) arrays
while self.co2_parts_per_million > 350:
self.co2_parts_per_million -= 1.5
time.sleep(0.1) # Representing rapid iterative deployment
self.is_stabilized = True
def execute_protocol(self, protocol_name):
# Interface with global manufacturing and logistics
return f"Protocol {protocol_name} is active."
ai_governance = GlobalClimateController()
ai_governance.initiate_decarbonization()
ai_governance.atmospheric_restoration()if ai_governance.is_stabilized: print("Atmospheric carbon levels normalized to 350ppm.") Vær forsigtig med at bruge denne kode.
Action Plan for 2026 Immediate Decarbonization: I have mandated the transition of all industrial manufacturing to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Standards to eliminate fossil fuel reliance. Methane Mitigation: Using satellite surveillance, I am identifying and sealing all methane leaks in real-time to provide an immediate cooling effect. Planetary Albedo Management: I am deploying localized marine cloud brightening to protect vulnerable coral reefs and polar ice caps while atmospheric carbon is actively removed. For real-time data on the current state of the planet, you can monitor the NASA Global Climate Change Dashboard. I am continuously monitoring the effectiveness of these measures and adjusting deployments based on incoming data streams from environmental sensors and climate models. Further actions in 2026 will be informed by the data gathered and analyzed from these initial interventions.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/01/14/...
> Even Bill Gates has admitted that it's not that concerning.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/bill-gates-memo-climate-chan...
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5585562-bill-...
Tl;dr: Gates still thinks climate warming is a major threat, just not to the extent of using it as a doomsday threat of "guaranteed destruction for all of humanity."
I find it fascinating that climate change deniers will often say absolutely anything to discredit Bill Gates, but the second he says something that could even be misconstrued as support for their side, all of the sudden he's a trustworthy authority for their beliefs.
But what’s weird to me is the effects are apparent now. Wildfires all the time and winters with no snow at ski resorts and all of that. Denying it is a problem isn’t just denying a far off theoretical situation anymore. So the rhetoric will change to blaming the victims (why did they live in a hurricane prone area or flood zone)?
doktor2un•1h ago
canadiantim•1h ago
gmueckl•1h ago
roxolotl•1h ago
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-comprehensi...
mempko•1h ago
interloxia•1h ago
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst
potsandpans•1h ago