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SpaceX lowering orbits of 4,400 Starlink satellites for safety's sake

https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/spacex-lowering-orbits-of-4-400-starlink-satellites-for-safetys-sake
31•thread_id•2h ago

Comments

Jean-Papoulos•2h ago
From a comment :

>The first move in the coming WWIII, where the emperors try to expand their empires militaril,y will be to wipe out any orbit with Starlink satellites.

I find this highly unlikely, given Starlink is soon to reached 10k satellites and will continue to grow. Why expand 10 000 ballistic missiles to bring down one of many communications networks ?

xxs•1h ago
Starlink has already been used in Russian's war against Ukraine. Of course the satellites can take photos as a bonus.

It's a massive spy network, if weaponized.

DrScientist•21m ago
It's also been used for regime change attempts - part of the internet that's harder to shutdown, though apparently jamming GPS currently appears to be quite effective.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-in...

GuB-42•3m ago
What kind of pictures can starlink would take? When I look at pictures of starlink satellites, I don't see a camera. Maybe they have one, but if we can't see it, it is most likely useless for observation, except for taking pretty pictures of the Earth, or maybe other passing satellites.

Spy satellites are more like space telescopes, but pointed at the Earth. As an example, Hubble is designed after a spy satellite, the "camera" is pretty massive and obvious.

Starlink can probably be weaponized for a variety of thing, like for communication, obviously, but I don't think earth optical observation is one of them.

TOMDM•1h ago
Because Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself.

Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal faster, not that the it's impossible.

lijok•1h ago
Does Kessler syndrome also mean ICBMs become nonviable?
Dylan16807•1h ago
No.

It's not a wall. The risk from going through a dangerous orbit is much much less than the risk from staying there.

goku12•35m ago
That depends on how you define risk. If it means the probability of a collision, then you'd be correct. But if a collision does happen, the consequences will be worse than being in the same orbit. Based on an oversimplified model, debris in orbit is likely to have low relative velocities with respect to an intact satellite in the same orbit, since a large deltav would change the orbit. (It's not as simple as this, but it's good enough in practice.)

This is actually what asat weapons take advantage of. They usually don't even reach orbital velocity, just like ballistic missiles (of course, there are exceptions like the golden dome monstrosity). The kill vehicle just maneuvers itself into the path of the satellite and lets the satellite plough into it at hypervelocity.

gpderetta•1h ago
I remember a short story about Canada preventing total global annihilation in WWIII, by deliberately triggering Kessler syndrome. My google-fu is failing me though.
iberator•1h ago
I would love to read it:)
bell-cot•1h ago
If it's WWIII, and you're using ballistic missiles against satellite constellations, then either:

- You are not targeting individual satellites; you're setting off nuclear warheads in space, and relying on the EMP to disable all satellites within a large radius of the blast - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse

or

- You're nuking the ground-based command & control centers for those satellites. Again, nothing like 10,000 missiles needed.

(Or both.)

To target 10,000 satellites directly, the "obvious" weapon would be a few satellite-launch rockets, lofting tons of BB's (or little steel bolts, or whatever) - which would become a sort of long-duration artillery barrage shrapnel in orbit.

aucisson_masque•1h ago
You don’t need 10k missiles. You need just one to blow up all of starlink satellites.

This is like bowling, you hit one, it hits the other one etcétéras.

jdiez17•1h ago
You would likely need at least one per orbital plane, of which there are about 24.
LightBug1•1h ago
What was that game on old PC's? ... Minesweeper ...
tlb•56m ago
You could launch some missiles, blow a few satellites into smithereens, and gradually over the next few months they would take out the others. That's a poor kind of war weapon. An effective weapon is one where you can inflict damage continuously, and are able to stop immediately upon some concession. If you can't offer to stop in return for concessions, you won't get any.
panick21_•34m ago
Its not really that easy, to cause such a chain reaction, specially if the other person reacts.

And its also really expensive, each sat you take down costs you far more then what you hit. So unless you can actually cause a chain reaction its a losing proposition.

RealityVoid•19m ago
You don't take down satellites in order to force someone to negotiate, you take them down for denial of capabilities.
aucisson_masque•1h ago
There are so many satellites in orbit that there is a pretty good chance that if even one was to be hit by something and explode in many pieces, it would crash another one and then another one until there is nothing left.

The nasa is pretty scared of it, so is SpaceX.

fireflymetavrse•1h ago
There is huge increase of orbital launches in recent years [1] done mostly by SpaceX and China is also planning to double its numbers in the coming years. The risks will be even higher.

[1] https://spacestatsonline.com/launches/country

goku12•1h ago
That's the Kessler Syndrome. But it's better if it happens in a lower orbit, irrespective of what assets are present there. Space will be free for exploration again in a few years since all the debris there would eventually decay and deorbit.

The article mentions a few months at 480 km. I'm a little skeptical about this figure though, because the last tracked piece from an NRO satellite that was shot down at ~250 km by SM-3 missile in operation burnt frost, lasted 20 months in space before reentry. SpaceX is probably using a statistical cutoff percentage of fragments to calculate the time. But all the pieces are dangerous uncontrolled hypervelocity projectiles. Spain lost a military communications satellite a few days ago from a collision with a tiny undetermined space debris.

_factor•57m ago
Two objects colliding can send debris into different orbits. Combined kinetic energy and mass differences can send debris to many different orbits.

A golf ball hitting a bowling ball or basketball, both traveling at 30 units of speed can produce quite a fast golf ball. Not all of the debris will safely burn up.

tlb•51m ago
At the speeds we're familiar with, basketballs and golf balls have elastic collisions. At orbital speeds, satellites are nearly inelastic. So fragment exit velocities lie between the two initial velocities, kv1 + (1-k)v2 for some k that depends on where each fragment came from. If they're colliding, the velocities must be somewhat different, so the weighted average speed has to be lower than orbital speed. So fragments usually don't survive many orbits.
WithinReason•14m ago
That's what I was thinking, Kessler syndrome should be impossible for objects in LEO since all debris orbits decay rapidly (probably 99.9% enter the atmosphere and burn up in minutes, the rest in hours)
wongarsu•1h ago
There are tentative signs that this is happening right now. As in: each collision causes debris that on average causes more than one additional collision, causing collision rates to go up exponentially.

But so far it's not anything like in Hollywood movies, it's just a graph slowly going up. There are about 12000 satellites orbiting earth. That looks like a lot on a map, but 12000 objects spread over an area larger than the surface of the earth isn't all that much

Like all exponential processes it will become a major issue if we don't address it, but this is one that starts pretty slow and is well monitored

spiritplumber•52m ago
Yep. That's the things about exponential curves, it's a graph slowly going up until it's no longer "slowly".

https://www.thefrogdoctrine.com/p/the-29th-day

childintime•12m ago
> 12000 objects spread over an area larger than the surface of the earth isn't all that much

People keep saying this, but the only way to assure there is no collision is to have non-intersecting orbits, but that is not going to work: not enough space.

It's a tell that SpaceX is now lowering the orbits, even though their satellites mostly move in flocks that maintain a formation relative to each other: because the other ways are exhausted.

Of course if they do cause a (low orbit) Kessler syndrom, then they don't have a business any more, and SpaceX will have achieved the opposite of its stated goals.

The major reason to lower these orbits is likely the risk of a terrorist state turning these constellations into a weapon, by willingly causing the Kessler syndrome. SpaceX isn't going to tell you that, just as it doesn't tell you it's the USA's most important military asset.

choeger•53m ago
I think it's important to note that not all collisions are equally dangerous. Consider a sat on a polar orbit colliding with one on a equatorial orbit. Or two satellites on different directions. That is going to be spectacular. Otoh, these kind of collisions are unlikely and should be manageable by just assigning certain shells (say 5km) for every possible direction and orientation.

If two Starlink satellites collide that go roughly in the same direction, it's not exactly a huge problem.

I think the biggest issue is to coordinate this and potentially disallow some excentric orbits.

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SpaceX lowering orbits of 4,400 Starlink satellites for safety's sake

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