The nasa is pretty scared of it, so is SpaceX.
The article mentions a few months at 480 km. I'm a little skeptical about this figure though, because the last tracked piece from an NRO satellite that was shot down at ~250 km by SM-3 missile in operation burnt frost, lasted 20 months in space before reentry. SpaceX is probably using a statistical cutoff percentage of fragments to calculate the time. But all the pieces are dangerous uncontrolled hypervelocity projectiles. Spain lost a military communications satellite a few days ago from a collision with a tiny undetermined space debris.
A golf ball hitting a bowling ball or basketball, both traveling at 30 units of speed can produce quite a fast golf ball. Not all of the debris will safely burn up.
But so far it's not anything like in Hollywood movies, it's just a graph slowly going up. There are about 12000 satellites orbiting earth. That looks like a lot on a map, but 12000 objects spread over an area larger than the surface of the earth isn't all that much
Like all exponential processes it will become a major issue if we don't address it, but this is one that starts pretty slow and is well monitored
People keep saying this, but the only way to assure there is no collision is to have non-intersecting orbits, but that is not going to work: not enough space.
It's a tell that SpaceX is now lowering the orbits, even though their satellites mostly move in flocks that maintain a formation relative to each other: because the other ways are exhausted.
Of course if they do cause a (low orbit) Kessler syndrom, then they don't have a business any more, and SpaceX will have achieved the opposite of its stated goals.
The major reason to lower these orbits is likely the risk of a terrorist state turning these constellations into a weapon, by willingly causing the Kessler syndrome. SpaceX isn't going to tell you that, just as it doesn't tell you it's the USA's most important military asset.
If two Starlink satellites collide that go roughly in the same direction, it's not exactly a huge problem.
I think the biggest issue is to coordinate this and potentially disallow some excentric orbits.
Jean-Papoulos•2h ago
>The first move in the coming WWIII, where the emperors try to expand their empires militaril,y will be to wipe out any orbit with Starlink satellites.
I find this highly unlikely, given Starlink is soon to reached 10k satellites and will continue to grow. Why expand 10 000 ballistic missiles to bring down one of many communications networks ?
xxs•1h ago
It's a massive spy network, if weaponized.
DrScientist•21m ago
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-in...
GuB-42•3m ago
Spy satellites are more like space telescopes, but pointed at the Earth. As an example, Hubble is designed after a spy satellite, the "camera" is pretty massive and obvious.
Starlink can probably be weaponized for a variety of thing, like for communication, obviously, but I don't think earth optical observation is one of them.
TOMDM•1h ago
Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal faster, not that the it's impossible.
lijok•1h ago
Dylan16807•1h ago
It's not a wall. The risk from going through a dangerous orbit is much much less than the risk from staying there.
goku12•35m ago
This is actually what asat weapons take advantage of. They usually don't even reach orbital velocity, just like ballistic missiles (of course, there are exceptions like the golden dome monstrosity). The kill vehicle just maneuvers itself into the path of the satellite and lets the satellite plough into it at hypervelocity.
gpderetta•1h ago
iberator•1h ago
bell-cot•1h ago
- You are not targeting individual satellites; you're setting off nuclear warheads in space, and relying on the EMP to disable all satellites within a large radius of the blast - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse
or
- You're nuking the ground-based command & control centers for those satellites. Again, nothing like 10,000 missiles needed.
(Or both.)
To target 10,000 satellites directly, the "obvious" weapon would be a few satellite-launch rockets, lofting tons of BB's (or little steel bolts, or whatever) - which would become a sort of long-duration artillery barrage shrapnel in orbit.
aucisson_masque•1h ago
This is like bowling, you hit one, it hits the other one etcétéras.
jdiez17•1h ago
LightBug1•1h ago
tlb•56m ago
panick21_•34m ago
And its also really expensive, each sat you take down costs you far more then what you hit. So unless you can actually cause a chain reaction its a losing proposition.
RealityVoid•19m ago