What I worry more about is the full lock-in of TSMC production capacity by nvidia/apple/amd/etc for their chips on their latest and greatest silicon process (aka the best in the world). There is 'no space' for performant large RISC-V implementations or other alternative (and it will require several iterations and mistakes will be made)

Arguably false. Why do you think the US has encouraged TSMC foundries, now inside Arizona ? It's obviously to protect against the scenario that China takes Taiwan. In that case, give it 6 months or less for US TSMC foundries to produce the finest. China taking Taiwan will likely not result in the CCP getting any technology, certainly Taiwanese have "contingency plans" to vaporize all tech in the event they are invaded.

Taiwan has missiles with the range and warheads to strike the three gorges dam.

An attack by China would end very poorly for everybody. There are millions of people living in the inundation zone.

The ability to mass produce a Pascal comparable GPU or Apple A11 comparable SoC is all you need for more cutting edge systems.

Power Electronics and Compound Semiconductors (GaN, SiC) have historically been the biggest bottleneck.

The bigger risk for the TSMC-China aspect is TSMC's planned exit of GaN foundry production by 2027. Most Chinese manufacturers still depend on TSMC-produced GaNs wafers instead of domestically produced GaN vendors due to reliability concerns. China will probably end up matching TSMC's specs for compound semiconductors, but in 4-7 years, but that implies that the Sullivan Doctrine still holds and is a loss for China.

Every other country with compound semiconductor production capabilities at scale (US, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Russia, India) either limits their exports or cannot export them to China without facing sanctions from other buyers (primarily Russia as India does not allowing commingling for defense vendors to India and Pakistan/China, and Russian vendors are members of India's EW and DEW program).

If a US-China War was to arise, worst case we would probably see a mass reversion back to 2018-22 level technology, which isn't the end of the world.

Additonally, the China-Taiwan situation is orthogonal to semiconductor dependency.

Maybe I missed something, but if Google, Microsoft, Apple, OpenAI, etc want more capex on fabs, they can front that money themselves?

This is all a smoke screen. He knows very well that China can and will develop their own hardware to train AI models (and in fact, they are successfully doing just that; e.g. the recently released GLM-Image was trained on their own silicon). His only objective here is to slow them down enough so that they don't eat Anthropic/Claude's lunch releasing open-weight models that are increasingly competitive. But he can't just openly say "hey, we don't like that they release open weight models for free", so he's engaging in the AI version of the "think of the children" argument.

Anthropic's whole modus operandi was always pretty much "we should control this technology, no one else". It's not a coincidence they're the only major lab which has not released any open weight models, they don't publish any useful research (for training models) and they actively lobby the lawmakers to restrict people's access to open weight models. It's incredibly ironic that Dario is worried about (I quote) "1984 scenarios" while that's exactly what his company is aiming towards (e.g. giving Palantir access to those models is not "unsafe", but an average Joe having unrestricted local access is an immediate 1984-style dystopia).

My perspective on the China risk differs some, though. China wouldn't benefit much from attacking TSMC. This is the first time I've heard anyone suggest that they might. At best they'd like to have it in-tact if they do take Taiwan, but there have been talks about machines being rigged to explode to deny them from China, or the US striking them in that scenario.

If neither we nor China get to work with TSMC, then we're still ahead in relative terms. If China did attack TSMC, they set the norm that the fabs (including their own) are now a fair target which would be a larger disadvantage for them than it would be for us since China's physical power projection remains pretty regional outside of Chinese nationals abroad engaging in sabotage.

That is one of their biggest weaknesses. Yes they have a lot of manufacturing capacity and a large population with many talented people, but in a way we have lent them the power to scale up to see what they'll do. We are already putting some pressure on that scale now that they've shown who they are, but if it came to war it would be very doable to start reversing their scale and their capacity to do the same to us would degrade as ours increases.

Even if all the AI in the world was destroyed, that's how it would play out. The problem is that Taiwan remains in close proximity to China so similar to Ukraine it would likely come down to how long they're willing to throw everything at it.

If Russia and China wanted to be powerful, it's just idiocy to show the existing superpower that you cannot be trusted with the power you have. If they fancy a merit based society, they forgot that merit isn't omnipotence and you still need the right ideas to be at the top to accompany the merit. For China maybe they need AI for that alone, but western societies at least have ways for the right ideas to make it to the top without the strict need of AI.

I'm glad the article dismissed this as a threat because it isn't one. The official policy of the US is the One China policy. You'll see this described as "strategic ambiguity". That's another way of saying that the official policy is simply to lie about supporting Taiwan's independence.

China is going to make their own chips. They'll just hire the right people to replicate EUV lithography. The article brought up nuclear weapons. It's a good analogy. At the end of WW2 the thinking of the US military was that the USSR would take 20+ years to get the bomb if they ever got it. It took 4 years. The gap with the hydrogen bomb was even less.

Western chauvinism in policy circles completely underestimates China's capacity to catch up in lithography. Not selling the best chips to China created a captive market for Chinese chipmakers.

I also think TSMC is being understandably cautious in not expanding their CapEx. AI companies really should focus on an economic use case for AI more than worry that foundry capacity will somehow limit a theoretical future AI use case.