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Monosketch

https://monosketch.io/
403•penguin_booze•5h ago•83 comments

Good Riddance, 4o

https://mahadk.com/posts/4o
36•JustSkyfall•36m ago•31 comments

Zed editor switching graphics lib from blade to wgpu

https://github.com/zed-industries/zed/pull/46758
202•jpeeler•3h ago•156 comments

Open Source Is Not About You (2018)

https://gist.github.com/richhickey/1563cddea1002958f96e7ba9519972d9
115•doubleg•3h ago•65 comments

CBP Signs Clearview AI Deal to Use Face Recognition for 'Tactical Targeting'

https://www.wired.com/story/cbp-signs-clearview-ai-deal-to-use-face-recognition-for-tactical-targ...
36•cdrnsf•30m ago•2 comments

Green’s Dictionary of Slang - Five hundred years of the vulgar tongue

https://greensdictofslang.com/
59•mxfh•5d ago•11 comments

I ditched OpenClaw and built a more secure AI agent (Blink and Mac Mini)

https://coder.com/blog/why-i-ditched-openclaw-and-built-a-more-secure-ai-agent-on-blink-mac-mini
37•ericpaulsen•1h ago•29 comments

Apple, fix my keyboard before the timer ends or I'm leaving iPhone

https://ios-countdown.win/
382•ozzyphantom•3h ago•248 comments

Faster Than Dijkstra?

https://systemsapproach.org/2026/02/09/faster-than-dijkstra/
45•drbruced•3d ago•15 comments

Resizing windows on macOS Tahoe – the saga continues

https://noheger.at/blog/2026/02/12/resizing-windows-on-macos-tahoe-the-saga-continues/
763•erickhill•17h ago•395 comments

MMAcevedo aka Lena by qntm

https://qntm.org/mmacevedo
233•stickynotememo•12h ago•130 comments

Sandwich Bill of Materials

https://nesbitt.io/2026/02/08/sandwich-bill-of-materials.html
11•zdw•4d ago•0 comments

An open replacement for the IBM 3174 Establishment Controller

https://github.com/lowobservable/oec
12•bri3d•5d ago•2 comments

GPT‑5.3‑Codex‑Spark

https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-3-codex-spark/
835•meetpateltech•23h ago•366 comments

Gemini 3 Deep Think

https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-deep-think/
982•tosh•1d ago•644 comments

Gauntlet AI (YC S17) train you to master building with AI, give you $200k+ job

http://qualify.gauntletAI.com
1•austenallred•5h ago

Implementing Auto Tiling with Just 5 Tiles

https://www.kyledunbar.dev/2026/02/05/Implementing-auto-tiling-with-just-5-tiles.html
48•todsacerdoti•5d ago•9 comments

Advanced Aerial Robotics Made Simple

https://www.drehmflight.com
70•jacquesm•5d ago•9 comments

Tell HN: Ralph Giles has died (Xiph.org| Rust@Mozilla | Ghostscript)

420•ffworld•18h ago•19 comments

I spent two days gigging at RentAHuman and didn't make a single cent

https://www.wired.com/story/i-tried-rentahuman-ai-agents-hired-me-to-hype-their-ai-startups/
32•speckx•1h ago•23 comments

MinIO repository is no longer maintained

https://github.com/minio/minio/commit/7aac2a2c5b7c882e68c1ce017d8256be2feea27f
391•psvmcc•9h ago•277 comments

Cache Monet

https://cachemonet.com
99•keepamovin•5d ago•32 comments

An AI agent published a hit piece on me

https://theshamblog.com/an-ai-agent-published-a-hit-piece-on-me/
2136•scottshambaugh•1d ago•873 comments

We interfaced single-threaded C++ with multi-threaded Rust

https://antithesis.com/blog/2026/rust_cpp/
84•lukastyrychtr•6d ago•8 comments

Apocalypse no: how almost everything we thought we knew about the Maya is wrong

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/feb/12/apocalypse-no-how-almost-everything-we-thought-we-kn...
44•speckx•3h ago•15 comments

AWS Adds support for nested virtualization

https://github.com/aws/aws-sdk-go-v2/commit/3dca5e45d5ad05460b93410087833cbaa624754e
267•sitole•17h ago•102 comments

Polis: Open-source platform for large-scale civic deliberation

https://pol.is/home2
311•mefengl•23h ago•116 comments

CSS-Doodle

https://css-doodle.com/
82•dsego•9h ago•8 comments

Improving 15 LLMs at Coding in One Afternoon. Only the Harness Changed

http://blog.can.ac/2026/02/12/the-harness-problem/
759•kachapopopow•1d ago•273 comments

Beginning fully autonomous operations with the 6th-generation Waymo driver

https://waymo.com/blog/2026/02/ro-on-6th-gen-waymo-driver
266•ra7•1d ago•345 comments
Open in hackernews

What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

https://outlookzen.com/2018/10/27/where-do-stock-market-returns-come-from/
23•whack•2h ago

Comments

salkahfi•1h ago
(2018)
deadbabe•1h ago
The fact that this was from 2018 and people were saying the same thing about the stock market as what people are saying today, gives me conviction that it’s best to just not worry about it and just buy stocks and start making money.
rwmj•1h ago
It's a shame Google doesn't let us use a log scale on that graph.
techterrier•1h ago
vibes
dehrmann•46m ago
> In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine

And we vote on vibes.

rvz•1h ago
printing your currency to zero.
munk-a•1h ago
That's a way to bolster it, certainly. None of the listed companies are on the hook for US debt and they'll just relocate if the US becomes a liability. Their value isn't (greatly) at danger of collapse if the debt becomes overwhelming.

There are also healthy ways to encourage economic growth, but those are too boring for the current moment.

randerson•56m ago
The US is the largest market for most US companies, so if consumer buying power is erased (e.g. through a treasury default or inflating our way out of the debt) those companies will drop substantially in value.
munk-a•48m ago
Potentially that will be the case in actual terms. Likely that will be the case in terms of their growth rate. But (for most) that certainly won't be the case in relative terms - the large US corporations would ride through such a decline taking an even bigger slice of the global pie.
RickJWagner•1h ago
If you read that article, you are a prime candidate to benefit from Bogleheads.org

Check it out. You’ll learn the easy, certain, slow way to accumulate wealth. Your future self will be very happy.

lich_king•57m ago
> certain

And by "certain", you mean "not certain". The core tenet are index funds, and while for the average person, they're probably better than stock-picking, you're absolutely exposing yourself to market risk.

grunder_advice•32m ago
Yeah, in particular now that index funds are well known and very common one wonders what risk one is exposed to when one is dumping everything into broad market index funds.
jrowen•27m ago
We should also mention that it's "not certain" that you will return safely if you leave your house.
biophysboy•58m ago
>The PE ratio reflects earnings today, but the most important metric is projected future earnings.

I think the key words are "projected future". Sometimes that estimation is easy; sometimes it is much harder. New tech introduces uncertainty. Speculative entrepreneurs tell stories that multiply the uncertainty.

wilkommen•57m ago
Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value every year (stocks and other digital assets), and this is part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class. People who think valuations of stocks are tied to fundamentals are smoking medical-grade copium. I too wish that the backbone of our financial system was a not a corrupt, rigged game that benefits a small and decreasing number of people every year, but it is.
tastyfreeze•51m ago
The way to fix that is to stop debasing the currency.

I stopped buying stocks a few years ago. The moment there is a contraction of credit or circulating currency we will see a 1929 style crash. Not worth the risk anymore.

yks•31m ago
What does "contraction of circulating currency" look like in the post-cash world?
tastyfreeze•26m ago
A drastic rise in interest rate or actual destruction of bills.
wilkommen•14m ago
I think in the short to medium term, they will continue expanding the availability of credit and expanding the money supply when crashes happen in order to keep asset prices high. At some point there will be a breaking point, but I think 2009-style "Quantitative Easing" and 2020-style fiscal spending can and will happen again. So I'm still in, but this game won't last forever.
WalterBright•42m ago
> Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals.

Stock prices are tied to anticipated future earnings, not past or present financials.

> only people with disposable income can afford

Anyone can invest in stocks with $100 or less. As for disposable income, anyone that can buy beer, drugs, or lottery tickets has disposable income that can be invested in stocks.

> part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class

Corporations make money by creating wealth, not "funneling" it from other people.

bpt3•20m ago
The numerous downvotes on this post containing basic statements of accepted fact is one of the more concerning things I've seen online in some time.
crazygringo•16m ago
Agreed. The level of financial illiteracy in many of the comments on the post is particularly concerning.

Especially in response to a post that is solely trying to teach some basic economic principles.

wilkommen•5m ago
I find it reassuring. More people are waking up from our collective trickle-down, "free market hypothesis" fever dream and are starting to understand that there's nothing natural or rational about the stock market - it's just an elaborate wealth allocation machine that showers wealth on those who already have wealth (and showers more wealth on you, the more you already have). The stock market is about as natural or rational as the most Communist land redistribution program, except it runs in the other direction. Money is political, and politics is about power! Too many people are still brainswashed by elite propaganda to think a machine designed to increase the power of the rich is somehow a mechanism as natural as the sun and wind.
sambaumann•53m ago
For reference when this was written in 2018, a P/E of the S&P of 24 was considered inflated. It stands at 29.34 as of now.
ArtTimeInvestor•40m ago

     "...the slowing GDP growth rate in America..."
What are they talking about?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

OKRainbowKid•34m ago
I don't see the contradiction?
ArtTimeInvestor•9m ago
I don't see anything that looks like a "slowing" in mid 2018.

Growth in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2018 was higher than anything that came before.

fogcity•30m ago
Click the "Edit Graph" button, and change the unit to "Change from Year Ago, Billions of Dollars" to see the evidence.
alecco•24m ago
https://pricedingold.com/us-gdp/
ArtTimeInvestor•9m ago
I don't see anything that looks like a "slowing" in mid 2018.

Q1, Q2 and Q3 2018 are all higher than anything that came before.

christophilus•31m ago
Passive flows. Mike Green has covered this well for a long time. Here’s a recentish interview:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WSpR770JvXg&pp=ygUYbWlrZSBncmV...

reedf1•30m ago
This just isn't right.
ProllyInfamous•29m ago
>"Time IN the markets typically beats timING the markets."
Temporary_31337•25m ago
One thing I learned about logic is that if you start with a false statement, whatever comes next doesn't matter "almost all valuations and returns are driven by corporate earnings" no they are not, at least not anymore.
crazygringo•17m ago
Then you're going to have a hard time learning any subject.

Because it's pretty common for educational materials to start with the first-order approximation, then go into the places where you need second-order corrections to it.

If you think the first-order approximation is false because there are exceptions, and you aren't even willing to read a few paragraphs down to find out about the exceptions and nuances, then hey, it's your loss.