[1]: https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...
The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again. "While memory prices are projected to stabilize by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to previous level — making the sub-$100 segment (171 million devices) permanently uneconomical." Before, they always came back down in the next RAM glut, when everybody built too much capacity. Why is that not going to happen next time?
[1] https://www.heise.de/en/news/Storage-crisis-Playstation-6-co...
Because this shortage isn't natural, it's the result of OpenAI flexing monopsony power to deprive everyone else for its strategic gain. Unlike an organic shortage, there is no compelling reason for otherwise excess capacity to be built, since this artificial shortage can end as arbitrarily as it started.
No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.
Here we're facing different forces-- unprecedented demand for DRAM that may be durable. But it also looks like the pace of supply changes may be decreased as process improvements get smaller and the industry stops moving so much in lockstep.
It still matters what happens to the demand function, though. If enough AI startups blow up that there's a lot of secondhand SDRAM in the market, and demand for new SDRAM is impacted, too, that will push things down.
Sort of like what happened with the glut of telecom equipment after
https://www.androidpolice.com/google-pixel-10-3-5-gb-ai-only...
A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.
I also wonder what this means for smartphone-esque devices like the Switch 2. If this goes on long enough I won't be surprised if they release a 'lite' model with less RAM/Storage and bifurcate their console capabilities, worse than what they did with 3DS > 2DS .
Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually does OOM, give me a dialog like macOS and ask me what to kill. Then again, if a phone is going OOM with 12GB of RAM there's a serious optimization problem going on with mobile apps.
Apple seemingly wants all apps to be static jpegs that never need to connect to any data local or remote, and never do any processing. If you want to do something in the background so that your user can multitask, too damn bad.
You can run in the background, for a non-deterministic amount of time. If you do that, iOS nags your user to make it stop. If you access radios, iOS nags your user to disable it.
It's honestly insane. I don't know why or how anyone develops for this platform.
Not to mention the fact that you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen. I can't believe that apple gets away with forcing you to buy a goddamn Mac to complile a program.
People develop for iOS because iOS users spend more money. End of story.
These are features, because we can't trust developers to be smart about how they implement these. In fact, we can't even trust them not to be malicious about it. User nags keep the dveloper honest on a device where battery life and all-day availability is arguably of utmost importance.
> you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen.
Now that's just nonsense.
Android does all sorts of wacky stuff with background tasks too... Although I don't feel like my 6 GB Android is low memory, so maybe there's something there, but I also don't run a lot of apps, and I regularly close Firefox tabs. Android apps do mostly seem well prepared for background shenanigans, cause they happen all the time. There's the AOSP/Google Play background app controls, but also most of the OEMs do some stuff, and sometimes it's very hard to get stuff you want to run in the background to stay running.
I dunno about watches, but Airpods work fine with Android, as long as you disconnect them from FindMy cause there's no way to make them not think they're lost (he says authoritatively, hoping to be corrected).
There is a strong argument modern mobile goes too far for this.
I don't work at that kind of level, so I dunno if the juice would be worth the squeeze (sleep with DRAM refresh is already very low power on phone scales), but it seems doable.
There's a reason why we say unused RAM is wasted RAM.
I remember on Android I dont recall the app name specifically, but it would let me download any website for offline browsing or something, would use it when I knew I might have no internet like a cruise.
Heck there used to be an iOS client for HN that was defunct after some time, but it would let you cache comments and articles for offline reading.
Safari suspends backgrounded tabs. I think that's what we're observing here rather than strictly memory pressure.
That being said, there's no reason the Safari context shouldn't be able to suspend the JS and simply resume when the context is brought back to the foregrown. It's already sandboxed, just stop scheduling JS execution for that sandbox.
My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway, so it seemed reasonable to offer a model at lower cost without the associated hardware.
It was also because young children weren't supposed to use the 3D screen due to fears of it affecting vision development. You could always lock it out via parental controls on the original, but still that was cited as a reason for adding the 2DS to the lineup.
https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/08/28/nintendo-announces-2...
> Fils-Aime said. “And so with the Nintendo 3DS, we were clear to parents that, ‘hey, we recommend that your children be seven and older to utilize this device.’ So clearly that creates an opportunity for five-year-olds, six-year-olds, that first-time handheld gaming consumer."
Although, for a $450 device that doesn’t need to make much of a profit on its own, I also don’t think they’re heavy on memory in the first place (12GB). You can buy top quality Chinese Android handhelds with more RAM and better Qualcomm processors than the Switch 2 for about the same price, and those companies are making $0 in software royalties (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
Every version of the Switch 1 had 4GB of RAM, they didn't cut that on the Lite. Going back and patching every game to ensure it ran on less RAM it was originally designed for would have been a nightmare.
> (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
AYN just announced that the Thor will get a price increase soon for obvious reasons.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SBCGaming/comments/1rf5gxq/to_thor_...
Of course the Thor Max will have a price increase, but also, obviously 16GB/1TB is a massively bigger bill of materials than the Switch 2’s 12GB/256GB configuration.
And I forgot to mention that Nintendo has far more pricing leverage in terms of their volume.
With that contract being eroded, I think the sloppiness of testing, validation, and even architecture in many organizations is going to be exposed.
That trend might reverse if porting to a best practice native App becomes trivial.
I wouldn't call it an idealist position as much as a fools one. Companies don't give a shit about software security or sustainable software as long as they can ship faster and pump stocks higher.
Big name apps like Facebook, YouTube, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts seem totally disinterred in preserving my place.
YouTube being the worst where I often stack a bunch of videos in queue, pause to do something else for a while and when I return to the app the queue has been purged.
If you switched off the app while looking at a certain post or watching a certain video, that's a negative engagement indicator, so the app wants to throw you back into the algorithmic feed to show you something new instead.
Why??
“Save webpages to read later in Safari on iPhone” https://support.apple.com/guide/iphone/save-pages-to-a-readi...
Nintendo can't realistically take memory budget away from developers after the fact. The 2DS cut the 3D feature from the 3DS, but all games were required to be playable in 2D from day 1, so no existing games broke on the cost-reduced 2DS.
After all this churn subsides there is a chance entry level Windows laptops will start at 32GB RAM and maybe 8-12GB VRAM?
Which could end up being about 5-10-15 years of progress packed into 2-3-4.
The shortage is manufactured, I have my doubts it will "end" in a conventional sense. I'm more skeptical and feel like this is yet another consolidation of wealth and a means of taking away compute power from people, which prevents startup competition. This way the hyperscalers are the only ones that can offer any meaningful compute.
The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance.
As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though.
Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.
Jony Ive at OpenAI is rumored to have smart speaker, pendant, pen and bone-conducting headset in the launch pipeline. Audio interfaces, no screens,
Meta is selling millions of smart glasses, with Apple and others following.
If the memory market was not distorted, home AI + agents + open models could have a bigger role via AMD Strix Halo. Instead, they will be reserved for those who can afford to spend five figures on 512GB or 1TB unified memory on Mac Studio Ultra devices.
> users [could] interact with Siri and future Apple devices without speaking out loud.. AI systems capable of interpreting facial expressions and subtle muscle movements to understand so-called “silent speech.”
So we are talking about a HomePod with a screen, or like one of those Meta "Portal" things?
Apple is developing a tabletop robot as the centerpiece of its artificial intelligence strategy, with plans to launch the device in 2027.. The robot resembles an iPad mounted on a movable limb that can swivel to follow users around a room..The company is also exploring other robotics concepts, including a mobile bot with wheels similar to Amazon’s Astro, and has discussed humanoid models..Otherwise I'd still be rocking my S9.
I'm also using a pixel 2 for Android development and Google play billing isn't supported on it.
The hardware is fine but they make it obsolete with software.
I'm guessing they'll soon move to a subscription pricing for phones.
It might last until 4G is turned off.
I can’t really imagine needing greater bandwidth than I have now but I still use the phone like it’s 2010.
I'm paying more on ebay for thinkcentre tiny and thinkpads - 12th gen intel and newer.
Refurbished spinny drives have been steadily climbing - up 50% since late last year. That's on top of the 20% mystery jump that happened in the last week of 2024.
I know I'm not speaking to all the people that need to hear it, but used phones are very affordable, and reduce waste. A used iphone 13 is about $200 in the US: https://swappa.com/listings/apple-iphone-13?sort=price_low
Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.
Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or not meet expectations which really is the tip of the iceberg.
The US/SK memory cartel understandably sold out for a massive short term windfall but they their long term decisions to limit supply have created a huge opportunity for China. I wouldn't be surprised if this will go down in the history books as the start of the exit for US/SK from the industry and the start of Chinese dominance.
The smart phone industry is likely to respond with an increasingly hostile anti-consumer approach as they try and lock customers into the cabins of the sinking ship. I expect cheap and cheerful Chinese budget phones aren't going anywhere.
I am happy for ram, cpu and storage to stall. I want a more robust and open phone which can take a fall and be updated long after the vendor loses interest. I expect to uninstall most of my apps rather than install new ones as I increasingly disconnect from an ever more distracting and worthless medium. I have cancelled nearly every subscription service in the last 12 months. And I have been deleting a lot of free accounts and apps. Its like doing a big cleanup. Surprisingly rewarding.
HN has felt like more than 50% AI industry promoting blog spam of little interest to me as a reader for some time. I am setting a budget of ten, no make it five, more posts here. Then I am out for good. Account deletion and no looking back.
Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.
selridge•1h ago
paxys•1h ago
selridge•1h ago
dude250711•55m ago
mlyle•1h ago