I think your chart shows the "that inflation slowly erodes purchasing power over time." That doesn't mean there aren't periods of change - if you study economic history at all you know about the Great Depression and stagflation - but for ~50 years it's been pretty well managed.
Interesting, but not quite as dramatic as I assumed from the title.
#1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy purchasing power.
China doesn’t seem to be squeezed when they seem to have a deal with Iran to buy in yuan.
If your currency is falling against foreign currencies but prices are also dropping domestically, you get deflation. This was happening in China a couple of years ago, and they were exporting this deflation to other countries.
https://open.substack.com/pub/endtropy/p/trumps-enormous-c-l...
Agreed. Which is why the Chinese do NOT want their currency to become the Petrodollar or world's reserve currency. They know that that is what destroyed US Manufacturing. China wants to maintain their manufacturing dominance. They've seen what de-industrialization has done to the US.
USD reserve = print USD for everything liquidity to sustain debt financed existence where Triffin hollows out industry, and financialize everything because having stupid amount of liquidity incentivizes certain behaviors.
Petro-yuan = PRC gives swap lines to trusted partners to buy oil denominated in yuan in exchange for things like resources. Hormuz ships ~1 trillion USD worth energy that needs "swapping" - incidentally PRC imports around ~2-3 trillion, more than enough to cover.
So think petro-yuan = PRC gives trusted countries with resources that PRC bonds credit lines to buy yuan denominated energy (possibly at discount), in return they guarantee PRC resources or other commercial/geopolitical arrangements. It will be narrow, not like USD brrrting reserves.
This benefits PRC because get to have leverage over "need" transactions (countries need energy to survive, it's no negotiate) while US keeps supporting "want" transactions by reserve debt servicing blackhole that US cannot extricate itself from until it debases / technical defaults. PRC best game plan is... assume privileged part of exorbitant privilege, while leaving US the exorbitant.
So no one is going to take up a lot of yuan trade unless that changes or they are forced to.
But that puts China in a bind. Liberalizing their currency is going to require very careful and slow actions, China threads this needle now in a very fraught way. If they openly start trading oil at any real size in yuan that will break their peg as you’ll be able to trade through the oil markets.
This is the main reason there isn’t more petro yuan already, it’s bad for China.
You can spend it in China, right?
Trump attacked Iran thinking that this would somehow be good for the US, except it's weakening the petrodollar because it's pushed Iran to simply accept Yuan for oil.
The endemic anti-intellectualism among white communities (especially rural and southern) has resulted in a steady decline of white people in well-paying professions in America. If you count the Jewish as a separate group, white people are likely a minority in corporate America. Combined with social upliftment of other groups ("wokism") and the opioid crisis (that has disproportionately affected hinterland communities but immigrant groups seem immune to), white people are sliding down the American totem pole. Trumpism, alt-right, anti-woke, and the general resurgence of racist rhetoric are basically just reactions to all this.
These people want manufacturing because manufacturing is largely considered a "white people sport". If America becomes a manufacturing-first society, the hope is that it puts white people at the front and center of American society again.
But I don't resent the people who stepped up to fill the jobs.
Rather, I am disappointed that these amazing jobs were basically gifted to US residents, but my fellow white people "Opted Out" of these high paying jobs.
Manufacturing is just their preferred lie to get otherwise intelligent people to support their insanity.
Not every kind of "bringing manufacturing back" brings the same kind of wealth and quality of life.
And the Heritage Foundation is not in the business of improving quality of life for everyone, or even the average American.
Only cheap labor can bring manufacturing back to the US. Are Americans willing to work in factories for the same wages as the Chinese and Indians? I don't see it happening.
Create enough poverty and soon people will be willing to do an awful lot of things.
With what? The euro, yuan? Or weapons from france?
I hate to admit it, but it's much less that the US is great because it's the reserve currency, and much more that the world reserve currency is the dollar because the US is what it is.
Weapons are expensive, and it only makes sense to buy them from a country that specializes in them. And a country that makes weapons at huge scale is likely to be big enough tilt the direction of the country to be all the ugly things the modern US military industrial complex is.
Ukraine are butchering Russians for 870 USD per dead soldier.
The USA has the most expensive weapons in the world, the problem is that much of it is obsolete.
It's a very different thing to fire a $5m missile that you imported vs one that you made domestically with all-domestic components and labor.
Also, some countries started to use other systems beside SWIFT to transfer money.
Doesn't that mean $3.05 in 1914 us worth $100 today?
I think it is astonishing that we accept that in a best case scenario of sustained 2% inflation, we are literally planning for the value of the dollar to be cut in half every 36 years.
Our system is designed to encourage asset ownership, not cash saving. If you stuff it under a mattress for 36 years, yeah you'll get fleeced. But buying assets is the way to keep up; an investment of $100 in the S&P500 in 1990 and never touched would be worth $4,120.93 today.
Technically, it does mean that $3.05 from 1914 is worth $100 today, but that's not a useful way of thinking about this. I.e., if your great-grandfather put $3.05 in an envelope in 1914 and you opened it today, it's still $3.05 worth of money (ignoring wheat pennies being a collectors items and whatnot).
A lot of money is printed.
Also, war is not an activity that generates wealth (but to some it does, obviously).
It's the issue Russia is facing right now in Ukraine. Even if Putin wanted to stop, his economy has turned entirely wartime, when it ends the country crashes on itself.
The commonality between all four of these incidents is that they correspond to severe supply shocks:
- During WWI and WWII, industrial supply was rerouted by force to the war effort, leaving normal consumer demand unfulfilled.
- During the oil crisis of the 70s, a critical energy input to the American economy massively increased in price due to sanctions placed on America.
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant chunk of workers were paid not to work, as a form of deliberate supply destruction to avoid the spread of a novel coronavirus.
In a "normal" economy, supply is flexible enough that you can print money and nobody even notices. The supply curve is smooth and gradual, so prices only rise a little. When supply is constrained, however, prices rise to whatever value is necessary to curtail demand, because they have to. The supply curve is a brick wall.
My parents bought a house in the 1970s. Because of the inflation that occurred during that time, incomes and expenses rose, yet long-term debt obligations such as fixed mortgages remained unchanged; their mortgage payment was the same in year 30 as in year 1.
I guess another way to say it is that during an inflationary period, the people who HAVE money suffer the loss of its purchasing power. But the people who OWE money benefit from the dollar not being what it used to be.
C'mon. Whether you agree or not, any time spent in the field will expose you to this philosophy. If you disagree, ignore. There's no need to go through implicit ideas.
Finally the events are quite cherry-picked. It is a conclusion looking for a result, when the statistical reason for choosing those 4 events simply isn't evident when you look at the data itself. There is no mathematical rule you could apply to your dataset that would distinctly highlight those 4 periods.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1800?amount=1
Doing a spot check, this means $1 in in 1913 is equivalent to roughly $32.83 today.
If anything the data points at "inflation targeting works and is producing slow and steady inflation" rather than "inflation comes in concentrated bursts".
Look at student loans vs the cost of college:
1958: Federal program to encourage science and engineering. 1976: Remove restrictions on bankruptcy dismissal of this debt. 2005: Same rules for private loans.
Today college has a (as someone here so eloquently put it) a cruise ship ascetic, and has far more "administration" than "eduction" in terms of raw staff.
Tv went from an expensive box (fixed cost) to cable (monthly fee) to on demand programing (several monthly fees, and with ad's).
A phone used to be a single item in your house with a monthly fee. It was an item so durable that you could beat a robber with it and still call the police (see old att, black rotary phone). Now its an item per person in a household, that you can easily loose, might break if you drop it, and costs any where from 200 to 1500 dollars.
None of this is inflation in the traditional sense, but it does impact the velocity of all money in the system, and puts pressure on individual spending in a way that isnt even accounted for in this chart.
I wont even get started on housing, but I will leave this chart behind and ask those who care to point to the housing crisis on it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
Out of them, there's one single interval that most people that talk about it refer as "the end of the good times" (but yeah, I've seen people refer as good times too) and the COVID pandemic.
And making it not an option leads to the situations where rich buy assets that are only go up and become richer. Average Joe meanwhile does not own assets and gets poorer and poorer
2% is an arbitrary number that just looks good and seems to work. The issue is that that target is very much not set into stone, as central banks often disregard or take too long to take action when inflation shoots up. And never, ever do they try to compensate afterwards with a lower target for a time.
You can have a government spend way beyond its income making inflation spike, eroding their own debt at the cost of cash savings purchase power and the central bank just sit put and wait until inflation runs too hot to then increase rates that then cut way before inflation is on target. As we are having right now in basically every country on earth.
In 1971, the United States ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency.
This allowed for the global reserve currency to float which allowed for global credit expansion at the cost of the dollar value but with the benefit of more overall dollars (monetary velocity increasing)
This is what politicians want because it makes the dollar printing machine the most powerful thing, hence why everyone hung on the fedchair words every few months.
So the USD is already hyperinflated but the price relative to other currencies is still high.
Once that price collapses (and it eventually will and increasingly soon) the entire US will look like the rust belt.
At the end of the day, the dollar or any other currency, is just a conversion tool for [value created] to [goods/services received]. A ratio of 3/1 is equivalent to a ratio of 300/100, even if 3 and 1 are 99% smaller than 300 and 100. The numerator and denominator can move out of sync, creating periods of strain and arbitrage while they equilibrate, but what really matters is how much xyz you get per hour of work at job abc. And overwhelmingly we are leagues beyond 1914 in that regard.
Can someone explain to me how post-covid is considered one of the 4 episodes?
it looks to me that the dips at 1933-1936 or 1956-1958 are much more significant - are these just "regular" inflation? Are we ignoring these because we can't tie them to some specific current event?
Because we try to figure out how things like "strengthening" and "weakening" of the dollar fit in, and we actually have policies much more intelligent than, weaking of the dollar! Collapse is imminent!
If seeing this graph has taught me anything it's that war is hell on many levels - including economically.
This article also doesn't seem to account for the median price of a single family home.
The moon gods have spoken in the tea leaves and we have lost the Mandate of Heaven.
latentframe•2h ago
SpicyLemonZest•1h ago
steveBK123•1h ago
golemotron•1h ago
soperj•18m ago
latentframe•1h ago
SpicyLemonZest•1h ago
Imustaskforhelp•14m ago
Nowadays, the Dead internet theory isn't even trying to hide it, its so blatant nowadays.
hyperpape•1h ago
windenntw•1h ago
Also this way of framing "As of February 2026, the US dollar has lost 96.9% of its purchasing power relative to January 1914. This means that $100 in 1914 would buy only approximately $3.05 worth of goods today" is of course math-correct but difficult to understand intuitively.
I think it makes more sense to explain it in the opposite direction or in both directions: "$100 in 1914 would buy only approximately $3.05 worth of goods today, or equivalently, $100 in 1914 is worth ~ $3278 nowdays (because 100 / 3.05 ~= 32.78 "
This also makes it easier to understand that the term "millionaire == person that has 1 million USD" only makes sense around 1914, because the equivalent amount of wealth nowdays would be "millionaire == person that has 32 million USD"
Anyways, I liked a lot this visualization https://mlde8o0xa4ew.i.optimole.com/cb:VNTn.d9a/w:auto/h:aut... that visualizes the compression in time of the big value changes.
RobotToaster•1h ago
If you had $100 in 1914 $10 coins you would have $24,800 in gold.
gruez•1h ago
It's still a bad chart because of the "the great inflation destroyed more value than both world wars combined" claim, for two reasons:
1. It's not clear (from the chart at least), that the claim is true. 20.0% + 18.1% = 38.1%, greater than 30.2%, but the quote claims otherwise. True, the red and orange segments cover more than just ww1 and ww2, but if more granular data is available why not show it?
2. "destroyed more value" might be technically true if we define "value destroyed = inflation", but it's a non-intuitive definition to use. If you asked someone about the value destroyed in ww1/ww2, they'll talk about europe being bombed out, not higher inflation.
post-it•1h ago
hcolomb•55m ago
senderista•52m ago
turtlesdown11•48m ago