Basically Iran put sanction on US. I guess Trump expected fight or something.
Then Tuesday we’ll announce that “good talks have happened” and bridge day is delayed. Maybe they’ll roll out the Shah’s nephew or whatever and pave the way for an announcement of a transitional government.
They’ll push the strikes until late in the week or early next week to maximize volatility - next Friday is the April options expiry. It likely the Treasury is intervening in the oil markets, so there’s likely a counter-trade there as well.
I’ve 3x’d my salary on this trade as an observer, the insiders are printing cash. Eventually the credibility of the office of the POTUS will erode to a point where it is going to blow up, we probably have another 3-5 rounds of this.
It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being damaged, perhaps not repairable for decades or more. This will have consequences.
Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
Remember, Republicans get out and vote. They would rather suffer and destroy America just so the democrats don’t win.
Look at what that party collectively stands for now, who they kick out and who they keep. They all stand behind trump.
Presumably democratic reforms could help change the dynamic if they changed the incentives. Right now, it's a politically viable strategy to just obstruct the other party when out of power, and politically unviable strategy for Congress to oppose a president from the same party. Both of which lead to a lot of dysfunction.
As an example, if Congress had multimember districts with an appropriate voting system (e.g. ranked choice voting for all members at the same time), then you can effectively nullify the power of gerrymandered voting districts (the current system, where effectively politicians choose voters rather than the other way around). Doing so would elevate the influence of general elections over party primaries. Then representatives would be less afraid of challenges in those primaries, which is currently one of the major disincentives in opposing the president of the same political party (fear of being "primaried").
So conservatives win when progressives push for too many changes, not changing things is the default. So saying that the democrats lost the election by pushing too fast is not weird, that is just how humans works.
I'd argue that the asymmetry has less to do with change vs. no change and more to do with the Republican party currently being an "anti government" party (pivoting to that post New Deal). So less is expected of them in terms of functional governance.
With respect to change: I've heard a lot of commentary that the Republican party today is more of an instigator of change than the Democratic party (being seen as a defender of the status quo), despite the traditional alignment of Republican/conservative/no change. Democrats are seen as pro-institution and Republicans anti-institution.
In case it matters, I personally don't identify with a political party. I just want functional government and politics and I see a lot of dysfunction. I'm an engineer so naturally I gravitate towards systemic solutions to systemic problems.
Thanks so much for voting in Trump and his enablers.
Sometimes democrats do push too far left. Far left is not that much different than far right.
I don’t really give a rats ass who runs the internals of your country, and what goes on in San Francisco seems like a you problem. Due to voters like this, Trump is now my problem many thousands of miles away.
Don’t underestimate just how much ill will he is generating around the world, especially in allied nations, by insulting leaders and pushing up all of our energy prices.
Again, one sided. People are tired of it. More importantly, people are growing tired of the tolerance for the people who support the current happenings. Look around about what people who stayed out of the 2024 election said and it's that Dems were milquetoast and tried to be friendly and play both sides. Look around and see why republicans were fired up to vote. It's because they loved the demonization of Dems.
The funny thing is you can criticize the supporters. It's no problem. You can criticize Bush voters and everyone will agree with you. Why? Because nobody voted for Bush. Yet he won two elections. Meaning those people regretted their vote and now completely hide that they voted for him. They also retroactively hate the Iraq War, despite supporting it in 2003 and saying anyone who opposes it is unamerican. But those people will now say Dems started the war.
Trying to pull those people over is like trying to wrestle with a greased pig. No kind words will ever be enough to grab them. They're incredibly loyal to their side no matter what, and will deny ever supporting it the moment social pressure builds up too much. But interestingly, they also respect anger and vitriol against those they feel betrayed them. Republicans loved voting for Trump because he said he was against neocons and the Iraq War and all those people who voted for them. If Trump ever falls out of favor, those people who once supported him won't be begging for leniency. They'll put on a new hat and demand revenge against him and his supporters. They don't want a both aisles softy. They'll just pretend they were always against him.
Are you saying democrats didn't vote for Kamala since Kamala didn't call Trump voters evil? What are you on about? I see no reason why you should call Trump voters evil.
As I said its fine to call Trump evil, but why call the voters evil? What purpose does that serve?
I get that there are real asymmetries here, but I really don't think there are substantial blocs of swing voters who use "who has insulted them less" as a real factor. If that were the case, Trump would not have made the gains he did in 2024.
The important thing is to make people feel welcome in your coalition. It is clearly possible to do that either with or without being nice. It's just a different skillset.
Trump actually insults many groups much less than democrats do. Democrats attack white men a lot, Trump doesn't, and white men was the main group flocking to Trump, even young white men who tended to vote democrat historically now overwhelmingly voted Trump.
I don't think attacking the electorate is ever a good strategy, it might feel good in the moment but that isn't a good reason to do it.
One third voted Republican.
One third did not vote.
I hold the last group most responsible.
This is true.
Which raises the question: could Democrats use this reality (whatever they touch is poisoned, in eyes of the other side) to steer the result a bit?
The SCOTUS ruled that presidents cannot be held accountable.
The constitution is pretty clear. Trump does not have the authority to invade Iran. Yet he did. What are you planning to patch?
Despite everything, Trump has 35-40 percent approval right now. You cannot patch that out.
Also, none of the Bush’s ran on an “America First” isolationist political campaign. Even own base is fracturing because of this.
The “coalition of the willing” is not behind the US this time.
Do with that, in terms of foreign policy, what you will.
we've faced two major recessions since then and may very well be entering our third
at this point it seems we're just trying to find out where the breaking point is
There are political similarities between the two aforementioned wars, but the social and technological backdrops are quite different, and they're working against US public perception. Furthermore, decorum is entirely gone this time around, which isn't helping.
I'm going to take action by voting in November. Or are you suggesting revolution is more prudent, that I should put my life on the line right now because the global economy is a little fucky?
> US President Donald Trump, on Friday, February 13, threatened to try to bypass Congress and force new voting laws ahead of the November midterm elections, where his Republican Party fears losing control of the legislature. Trump said he would soon issue an executive order attempting to impose the rules if Congress does not pass a law requiring photo identification to vote and other nationwide reforms.
> "There will be Voter ID for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "If we can't get it through Congress, there are Legal reasons why this SCAM is not permitted. I will be presenting them shortly, in the form of an Executive Order," he wrote.
You think.
Peaceful transfers of power are always tricky in younger democracies.
Iran is a distraction from the Epstein files, and the fact that many from the Trump circle appear in it - Trump himself, some of his children, Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Peter Thiel, etc.
The war with Iran is also a way to make a few more suspicious trades on the market swings, especially the ones following each speech or decision. It would be easy to time trades if you know what will happen because you’re deciding it.
The US may be destroyed but it’s because it’s just collateral damage to the billionaires and Epstein class. Not because they’re incompetent. We need to contain their wealth and power with totally new laws.
Trump's most recent statement ( https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1163519987825... ):
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Bombing them into the stone age where they belong, complete destruction of them, no quarter, decapitation strikes, bridge day, etc?
It's not you specifically, but there's a broader sociological problem where we anthropomorphize countries and then claim they are doing things.
The average person in the US is not threatening Iran, and rationally the US cannot be said to be threatening Iran. What's happening is that an elite clique of Epstein-adjacent legacy-power-trolls (aka The US Government) are threatening Iran.
The US does not have legs, arms, or hands, it cannot do anything. This turn of phrase in which the US (or any country) does something is a semantic-contraption of legacy-power designed to make citizens (whether left, right, or undecided) feel psychologically-responsible for the actions of a entrenched-class of elite-warmongers who do not represent them; and have not represented them for, likely, thousands of years.
Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from Pete H. etc.
Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy Iran.
Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him. He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran for them, war crimes and all.
Because no matter how much they pretend it doesn't affect the US, oil is a global market.
I imagine France threatened to enter the conflict and that is why they got it, Iran did kill a french soldier after all, just that normally such threats happens behind closed doors so we just see the outcome.
The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their ships weren't allowed to pass. The countries like Spain that takes Iran's side hasn't gotten their ships through yet, that seems like a weaker strategy.
France is one of few countries with large military presence in the area, that is the only thing they do more than most other countries.
Edit: And France even directly threatened to use force here. If you only read American news you wouldn't know since they want it to seem like the world is on Irans side here. What we are seeing is that Iran has started buckling to these threats, not that they are giving passage to those who didn't threaten.
> France is advising Bahrain on a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy flows, according to three diplomats informed of the process.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-advising-bahrain-un-s...
Again, what are you on about.
France was one of 3 countries that literally blocked UN resolution about opening straight by force. And president repeatedly called it "impossible".
You read weird news if you thing "a threat" of anything is making iran to let ships pass. Money and noninvolvement do.
No they are not, this French ship was the first European tanker going through.
The amount of misinformation foreign people have about Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump, she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
But no Spanish tankers have gone through so that doesn't seem to be accurate. An Iranian diplomat saying that publicly doesn't matter when the irgc continues to shoot them. The only known European aligned tanker to have gone through is this French one we are reading about here.
That said, French and Israeli vendors like Thales, IAI, Dassault, Rafael, Elbit, etc still collaborate closely becuase they are both OEMs, vendors, and JV partners in Indian defense deals that integrate both into Indian weapons systems - especially as both are integrated (along with Russian and indigenous weapons systems) with what is become Indians version of the Iron and Steel dome [0][1]. Vietnam is mandating the same thing as part of their 2045 Drone manufacturing strategy [2].
And both MIC ecosystems still collaborate together on defense deals back in Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece.
Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian systems where possible.
[0] - https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-releases/th...
[1] - https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/64841
[2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/03/02/...
My fellow Americans, over the last few hours - and it was really incredible to watch, believe me! the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Rescues in History. Maybe in the history of the world! We went in for one of our incredible Warriors. A Colonel. Big, strong guy. Tears in his eyes when they picked him up, he was so happy. He said, "Thank you President Trump for saving my life!" And he is now SAFE and SOUND!
This brave man was behind enemy lines. In Iran. Terrible place. Nasty mountains. Very rocky, very dangerous. He was being hunted by our enemies, they were getting closer and closer, but they didn't know who they were dealing with! They didn't know that your Commander in Chief, along with his Secretary of War (we call him that now because we are tough!) and the Joint Chiefs, were watching him 24 hours a day. We never stopped. We don't sleep. We were watching his location like you wouldn't believe.
At my direction, I said, "Go get him." And the U.S. Military sent in dozens of aircraft. The most lethal weapons in the World. We have the best equipment. Iran doesn't have equipment like this. Nobody does. We went in, we got him. He sustained some injuries, a little roughed up. But he's a tough cookie, he is going to be just fine. Tremendous.
And surprise, we did another one yesterday! A pilot! We didn't tell the Fake News Media because we didn't want to jeopardize the second operation. They would have leaked it for sure. They're very dishonest. But we got him too. Two pilots! Deep in Enemy Territory! That's the first time in military memory that's ever happened. Washington couldn't do it, Lincoln couldn't do it. But Trump did it. And not a SINGLE American killed in the process. Not even wounded! Zero! It proves what I've been saying: We have overwhelming Air Dominance. Total Dominance. We own the sky.
This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, Independents, everybody should be proud of. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. We love them.
GOD BLESS AMERICA! GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS! AND A VERY HAPPY EASTER TO ALL, EVEN THE RADICAL LEFT MANIACS WHO WANT TO DESTROY OUR COUNTRY! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
You lost me here. He wouldn’t say this.
zzzeek•2h ago
vrganj•2h ago
It's been actively harming it's allies, threatening them with invasion and conspiring with their enemies.
The rest of the world cannot afford to give the American people the benefit of the doubt.
After Trump I, there was hope it was just a fluke. Trump II is much worse and cements the unreliability of the American voting public.
nozzlegear•1h ago
vrganj•1h ago
I don't think that position is recoverable the same way.
evilduck•1h ago
stevenwoo•55m ago
rchaud•49m ago
bdbdbdb•1h ago
SoftTalker•56m ago
sneak•2h ago
Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in anticipation of this eventually happening.
What if it doesn’t? What if all of this is a symptom of an underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the current administration? It’s not Trump that made Americans A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn’t a temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
thyristan•1h ago
In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good West", and this opposition forced at least some token "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides. It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts, also learned a few things. Among them that principles are negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective also induced the West to over time to not just understand the former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties, and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even preferable.
So I don't think this is just temporary.
ted_bunny•1h ago
nozzlegear•1h ago
Obama didn't deliberately target kids using drones.
InsideOutSanta•1h ago
ted_bunny•1h ago
lifestyleguru•2h ago
There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.
Jensson•1h ago
Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.
zzzeek•1h ago
Jensson•1h ago
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
vntok•1h ago
Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA henchmen is probably much safer.
Jensson•1h ago
Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person.
> wants to place a bet that will more than probably never pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party?
Betting sites are trusted third parties.
Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next president when most bettors are betting on those being the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means you disagree with him as well.
vntok•1h ago
This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your money by the entity that took your bet.
> Betting sites are trusted third parties.
No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have unclear T&Cs and so on.
rawgabbit•1h ago
Jensson•58m ago
dyauspitr•47m ago
Jensson•32m ago
I too mostly agree with his populist center takes, but that doesn't mean he is reasonable.
jMyles•1h ago
This rings as "make America great again", just with a different mythology standing-in for "again".
The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever.
What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single state, and now that we have instant communications and ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the federalist papers) are no longer dispositive.
Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top the new agenda.
b0rtb0rt•38m ago
no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too