"Esfandiary, of Bloomberg Economics, said Iran “theoretically knew” it had leverage over the strait but was uncertain how significant the impact would be if it acted on those threats.
Now, she added, Tehran “has discovered the impact.”
The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume. The whole war strikes me as the current administration finding out the hard way why previous administrations all the way back to Reagan didn't commit to warfare against Iran, even if they wanted to. "FAFO", as the kids say, I guess.
OTOH, I do have theory floating around in my head that someone got one of the letters wrong and confused Iran with Iraq: "we kicked their ass before, we'll do it again!"
"Uh, different and much better-armed country, sir."
Or, as has been famously said, "Don't confuse me with the facts." [0]
> The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume.
They would have, because this has been wargamed and written about for decades. It's playing out exactly as expected, which is why no US administration until this one was willing to go to an outright hot war with Iran. Unfortunately, this war dept and admin has a staggering amount of hubris, incompetency, and a strange devotion to carrying out every whim of a certain semi-allied state I won't name directly but can be inferred.
throwaway85825•2m ago
Not legally an ally under any treaty.
jLaForest•23m ago
The purpose of this war is to distract from the Epstein files, and it's been very successful
lonely_wanderer•21m ago
I don’t think this argument really makes sense tbh. When you own the justice department and congress, what matter does it make? Epstein stuff was going to to stale regardless, as much as I hate that fact.
criddell•1m ago
[delayed]
himata4113•16m ago
pretty sure people already had epstein fatigue and didn't really care anymore.
yes billioanires participated in crazy unethical parties with human traffiked hookers, water is wet.
to be a billionaire you have to have an inherit evil inside you, otherwise your concious would simply never allow you to build up wealth to that point without redistributing it to employees, people who helped you get where you are, improving your community and so on.
lonely_wanderer•22m ago
I vacillate between two potential rationales:
- there is a concerted effort to target and topple oil producers which China relies on as a form of containment of the Chinese economy. Venezuela, Iran, eventually Russia in a more direct way. The current administration is willing to accept economic pain for just about everyone because they see the transition from petroleum to green energies as the death knell for US superiority. They see this as their last chance to derail China, so they are taking it. It provides incidental value (like giving pre-text for increasing domestic repression).
- they thought it would be easy after Venezuela and Trump was flattered by Netanyahu and pressured by evangelicals into doing it.
spankalee•5m ago
The China point doesn't make any sense to me.
High oil prices only accelerate China's transition to renewables, and rewards them for all the investment they've made so far, both in national energy production and in selling panels and EVs to the world.
It hurts the US far more, especially with this admin's anti wind and solar policies.
ZeroGravitas•18m ago
We have reporting on this leaked by people who were in the meeting.
Netanyahu told Trump they wouldn't block the strait. The US military said they would. Trump went with Netanyahu.
ck2•16m ago
it's even more simple than that
Israel talked him into it, just like he has no interest in anything until the last person in the room whispers ideas into his ear
Lindsey Graham is this term's Rudy Giuliani and he was flying back and forth to Israel briefing their version of the CIA on what to tell Trump to get him to do this
Personally I think another aspect is once he realized American oil companies became massively profitable overnight for months now at $100+ a barrel, he just took a cut somehow
Remember it took Obama's team YEARS to get Iran to sign something, this is not ending this year or next for any number of bombs killing their innocent civilians, Iran doesn't care, executions are at an all time weekly high there
It's death-cult vs death-cult at this point, we all lose
chadgpt3•12m ago
The current regime is staunchly anti-intellectual and regularly believes things are false solely because scientists say they are true.
realusername•10m ago
It's always the same with the US, the US always overestimate raw military power and underestimate local and strategic conditions.
All the previous wars got lost the exact same way.
Trump is losing the same way the US lost in Afghanistan, Irak, Vietnam, Korea... Just faster than any anybody else.
abrowne•9m ago
14-month old article headline, but hasn't aged a bit:
American Foreign Policy Is Being Run by the Dumbest Motherfuckers Alive
In the time of their declining empire, the US got late stage Nero instead of Marcus Aurelius.
Havoc•16m ago
What like a cent per Meg
2OEH8eoCRo0•5m ago
Well...you said you were tired of US hegemony. Enjoy!
seydor•1m ago
Iran is basically trolling the US with the superpowers it accidentally acquired after being attacked
gpt5•1m ago
While folks here are quick to jump to blaming the US for this, it's also worth noting that the US is the one that has been enforcing international order so far.
So it gives us a bit of a glimpse of what would the world would look like with a more isolationist US, or a multipolar world.
mikestew•33m ago
Now, she added, Tehran “has discovered the impact.”
The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume. The whole war strikes me as the current administration finding out the hard way why previous administrations all the way back to Reagan didn't commit to warfare against Iran, even if they wanted to. "FAFO", as the kids say, I guess.
OTOH, I do have theory floating around in my head that someone got one of the letters wrong and confused Iran with Iraq: "we kicked their ass before, we'll do it again!"
"Uh, different and much better-armed country, sir."
Or, as has been famously said, "Don't confuse me with the facts." [0]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Landgrebe
JohnMakin•29m ago
They would have, because this has been wargamed and written about for decades. It's playing out exactly as expected, which is why no US administration until this one was willing to go to an outright hot war with Iran. Unfortunately, this war dept and admin has a staggering amount of hubris, incompetency, and a strange devotion to carrying out every whim of a certain semi-allied state I won't name directly but can be inferred.
throwaway85825•2m ago
jLaForest•23m ago
lonely_wanderer•21m ago
criddell•1m ago
himata4113•16m ago
yes billioanires participated in crazy unethical parties with human traffiked hookers, water is wet.
to be a billionaire you have to have an inherit evil inside you, otherwise your concious would simply never allow you to build up wealth to that point without redistributing it to employees, people who helped you get where you are, improving your community and so on.
lonely_wanderer•22m ago
- there is a concerted effort to target and topple oil producers which China relies on as a form of containment of the Chinese economy. Venezuela, Iran, eventually Russia in a more direct way. The current administration is willing to accept economic pain for just about everyone because they see the transition from petroleum to green energies as the death knell for US superiority. They see this as their last chance to derail China, so they are taking it. It provides incidental value (like giving pre-text for increasing domestic repression).
- they thought it would be easy after Venezuela and Trump was flattered by Netanyahu and pressured by evangelicals into doing it.
spankalee•5m ago
High oil prices only accelerate China's transition to renewables, and rewards them for all the investment they've made so far, both in national energy production and in selling panels and EVs to the world.
It hurts the US far more, especially with this admin's anti wind and solar policies.
ZeroGravitas•18m ago
Netanyahu told Trump they wouldn't block the strait. The US military said they would. Trump went with Netanyahu.
ck2•16m ago
Israel talked him into it, just like he has no interest in anything until the last person in the room whispers ideas into his ear
Lindsey Graham is this term's Rudy Giuliani and he was flying back and forth to Israel briefing their version of the CIA on what to tell Trump to get him to do this
Personally I think another aspect is once he realized American oil companies became massively profitable overnight for months now at $100+ a barrel, he just took a cut somehow
Remember it took Obama's team YEARS to get Iran to sign something, this is not ending this year or next for any number of bombs killing their innocent civilians, Iran doesn't care, executions are at an all time weekly high there
It's death-cult vs death-cult at this point, we all lose
chadgpt3•12m ago
realusername•10m ago
All the previous wars got lost the exact same way.
Trump is losing the same way the US lost in Afghanistan, Irak, Vietnam, Korea... Just faster than any anybody else.
abrowne•9m ago
American Foreign Policy Is Being Run by the Dumbest Motherfuckers Alive
(Daniel W. Drezner https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/american-foreign-policy...)
grim_io•3m ago